Damage In Tolland Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Looks like another round of storms for many folks today all over SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 SPC AC 020730 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT MON JUL 02 2012 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY AND NERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN ND INTO NWRN MN... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL U.S. FLANKED BY MEAN TROUGHS OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND NERN STATES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EJECTING INTO SWRN CANADA WILL REACH THE NERN U.S. WEDNESDAY...WHILE STRONGER UPSTREAM IMPULSE CRESTS UPPER RIDGE AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH SRN MANITOBA. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE IMPULSE SEWD THROUGH THE NERN U.S. WHILE A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NEWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE SRN EXTENSION OF COLD FRONT ATTENDING THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRESTING UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ...NERN STATES THROUGH OH VALLEY... A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER A PORTION OF ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON COOL SIDE OF WARM FRONT. STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IN WAKE OF THE RETREATING FRONT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STEEP. HOWEVER...DIABATIC WARMING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING. BELT OF 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SEWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS AND STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO LINES AND CLUSTERS AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD WHERE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY PROMOTE A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin W Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Well that was wild. Vivid lightning and torrential rains. Got soaked coming out of the store. You got what I didn't. When it cleared up in Attleboro, I could see the black sky in your direction. It looked pretty wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 One big key for Wednesday will be whether or not we can maintain mid-level lapse rates that are near 7 C/KM. I know we may have to worry about cloud debris from a morning MCS, however, it's possible that latent release from this system could weaken lapse rates in the AM then the question becomes can they rebound? BOX seems to have clouds as an issue, but for those who get good sun, it could be raucous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 You got what I didn't. When it cleared up in Attleboro, I could see the black sky in your direction. It looked pretty wild. I think the core was a hair N of my actual house. I was up at the 24/44 intersection at the store when all hell broke loose. Did not see any hail and I haven't checked to see if there were any reports from the area. Was the cell even warned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Rollin thru Stafford springs in route to balt.. truly a blue sky beauty today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Yes, we do get brushed off way too quickly... Training events are quite common - especially when storms moving ESE elongate and run more parallel to the coast once they reach the beaches. We can get inches of rain when this happens with hours of thunder. Not many folks are around here report these events so they virtually un-noticed. Today was a typical classic setup for us along the immediate coast... thunderstorms moved along to our north causing the outflow to push the marine air back out to sea - while additional storms formed to our north and were able to make it to the coast. This happens a good many times with this type of setup and can be very beneficial rain-wise if the storms get hung up along the coast. Nocturnal storms - usually LLJ induced - are classics as well. These get missed by a lot of folks since they occur usually after midnight and before 6am. I used to keep better records of these types of storms but if anyone is interested, I can easily go back and find dates of some incredible nocturnal storm events - or recent training events... I LOVE thunderstorms and am not the least bit disappointed in the storms we get each year along the south coast beaches. My neighbor - originally from Texas - said last summer that our coastal thunderstorms give some of those Texas storms a run for their money! Some of the best thunderstorms I have experience have been in Jamestown and Newport, RI. I love when the bridges close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 BOX seems to have clouds as an issue, but for those who get good sun, it could be raucous. Normally during westerly/northwesterly flows aloft clouds don't hurt us as we burn them off rather quickly. I only remember one time where clouds were somewhat of an issue and it was one day last summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin W Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I think the core was a hair N of my actual house. I was up at the 24/44 intersection at the store when all hell broke loose. Did not see any hail and I haven't checked to see if there were any reports from the area. Was the cell even warned? Not sure if it was warned or not, I was busy at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Normally during westerly/northwesterly flows aloft clouds don't hurt us as we burn them off rather quickly. I only remember one time where clouds were somewhat of an issue and it was one day last summer. Im assuming due to downsloping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 This has been a rough period for C NJ. We have been either fringed or missed altogether from several MCS that tracked through the Mid Atlantic or yesterday's threat dodged us. I know that I could be considered "lucky to have missed the derecho" etc. etc. but I think I am too much of a severe weather nut to think logically like that haha... I am hoping to finally see something good this week / weekend but it was really tough watching that beast of a derecho go south...as we suspected it would days in advance... but it still sucks to watch it materialize. /complaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 This has been a rough period for C NJ. We have been either fringed or missed altogether from several MCS that tracked through the Mid Atlantic or yesterday's threat dodged us. I know that I could be considered "lucky to have missed the derecho" etc. etc. but I think I am too much of a severe weather nut to think logically like that haha... I am hoping to finally see something good this week / weekend but it was really tough watching that beast of a derecho go south...as we suspected it would days in advance... but it still sucks to watch it materialize. /complaining Your a meteorologist and weenie. Missing a derecho is nothing to be happy about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I just want one weenie hail event...lol My sister near DC is having friends stay at her condo since they are w/o power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Your a meteorologist and weenie. Missing a derecho is nothing to be happy about. Definitely. I am a severe weather weenie for sure and a fan of summertime weather. I am sure there will come another opportunity for a derecho in a summer like this one but it may favor areas further and further west as the summer presses on and the anticyclone center shifts west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 It seems that New England has had an above normal severe season so far? Am I right on that? Just seems like more storms have been warned, more hailers, than we typically see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Wednesday could be real interesting, Even a Day 3 slight risk on SPC. It will also depend on if we see enough sunshine as there may be a morning complex, but the profiles look kind of good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 It seems that New England has had an above normal severe season so far? Am I right on that? Just seems like more storms have been warned, more hailers, than we typically see I am not sure on the statistic but I would have to agree that we've seen an impressive number of hail reports this season both in size and quantity. I am not sure if it is some kind of record. It is hard to quantify something like that given that our coverage of severe weather reporting has grown substantially over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nate Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Bizarre brief hvy shower here in Norwood. Came out of nowhere from a rather small cloud. Don't blink, might miss it on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Wednesday could be real interesting, Even a Day 3 slight risk on SPC. It will also depend on if we see enough sunshine as there may be a morning complex, but the profiles look kind of good. I like the way the surface pressures lower across interior Central New England, increasing the directional component. The new 6z GFS is lackluster in terms of instability/ recovery and it also lags the best speed shear. However, I don't think the latter issue will be a major concern if we can properly destabilize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Wednesday could be real interesting, Even a Day 3 slight risk on SPC. It will also depend on if we see enough sunshine as there may be a morning complex, but the profiles look kind of good. It looks like the MCS might be more for NNE..Euro has it north...then all of NE rips in the afternoon?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Ive noticed these mcs complexes seem to end up further south than progged in these nw flow patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I like the way the surface pressures lower across interior Central New England, increasing the directional component. The new 6z GFS is lackluster in terms of instability/ recovery and it also lags the best speed shear. However, I don't think the latter issue will be a major concern if we can properly destabilize. Yeah the GFS wasn't too enthusiastic about it, but I agree about those points you make. We have another couple of days to monitor the models and trends, but yeah the NAM and even the euro looked pretty good. I'd like to see the GFS come around. While NW flow, I'm not quite sure lapse rates will be all that impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 It looks like the MCS might be more for NNE..Euro has it north...then all of NE rips in the afternoon?? Well it's possible...it could be a little SW of you, but NNE has potential too. The NAM smoked you pre dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Well it's possible...it could be a little SW of you, but NNE has potential too. The NAM smoked you pre dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Yeah the GFS wasn't too enthusiastic about it, but I agree about those points you make. We have another couple of days to monitor the models and trends, but yeah the NAM and even the euro looked pretty good. I'd like to see the GFS come around. While NW flow, I'm not quite sure lapse rates will be all that impressive. What we don't want is a poorly timed morning complex that simply brings elevated crap in the morning (although that can be fun, don't get me wrong) and screws over later in the day. Plus, that doesn't bring the best July 4th picnic conditions either. Are the differences between the GFS and NAM/ECMWF simply to do with timing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 KFS tosses the NAM KFS does not even look at the piece o' garbage GFS KFS complains that the Euro is a disaster unless it calls for high heat on the ensembles (which it usually is not) KFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Scooter, forecast for today, central CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 What we don't want is a poorly timed morning complex that simply brings elevated crap in the morning (although that can be fun, don't get me wrong) and screws over later in the day. Plus, that doesn't bring the best July 4th picnic conditions either. Are the differences between the GFS and NAM/ECMWF simply to do with timing? Yeah that's why I'm not doing much more than monitoring things over the next few days. It could be a rather messy timing of sorts. The models seem to have similar placement of the s/w at H5..maybe the GFS is a little stronger. NAM is different looking with a weaker s/w, but pretty good wind fields on the srn side of it. I guess imo, I just like how some of the things look, but can't get excited yet. Nice job the other day entertaining the derecho idea down near the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Well just saying what it shows. I think it has the right idea of something there, but obviously timing and exact placement need to be worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Scooter, forecast for today, central CT? I'd say you should be ok, but I'd give it a 20 to maybe 30 chance of a shwr/tstm. Just keep an eye out, because stuff may be scattered about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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