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Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread IV


NJwinter23

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Can't believe I saw pea hail today!!!!!! First time since May 26, 2010 I saw hail...even though it lasted 5 seconds and I saw around 10 stones

The hail I was in today in the Wallingford/Cheshire area was some of the largest I've experienced personally here in CT since.... God, it would have to be the mid '90s, if not all the way back to '89! There was a mean hail core on that cell for a while there... And I think I was lucky enough to sample it right at its peak. My car might have acquired some new hail dents, I'll have to check. I was under the bridge for the worst of it, but the wind was flinging the stones almost horizontally at one point, so the back of my car was still getting hit occasionally. Very impressive stuff for SNE.

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Actually... sorry Wiz' - apparently KTAN is not updating their 18z NAM Bufkit data - it was stuck on a June 30, 2010 file and I verified that is what they are sending from their database - so they need to figure that out.

Anyway, below is the screen shot of the 12z for the best interval, 75 hours out, ...21Z. The PM has awesome cape, and up to that point there was a lot of CIN that you can see below rather abruptly "uncaps". That's good for explosive CB genesis, but noticed the Helicity is only a buck-50? The vectors in the graphical area confirm, and this would likely be a straight line outburst type event. Of course, this is just the 12z NAM. The GFS sucked -

post-904-0-16849800-1341179846_thumb.jpg

Shear and instability improves as you get away from the SE coast and closer to the low center. 18z NAM had MLCAPE of about 3800j/kg in ORH and PSM...along with 0-3km helicity exceeding 200m2/s2.

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