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Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread IV


NJwinter23

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Umm you want to see a perfect tornado setup in SNE look at the 18z NAM for Wednesday

Eh...there may be some directional shear but the velocity differentials are stingy...total helicity wouldn't be the great.

I just ran the numbers; the 12z run was better.

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Not to sure if clouds will be that big of a deal...normally during westerly or northwesterly flows aloft clouds aren't an issue for us

Well it depends how fast the front is and if any leftover MCS debris hangs around the midday or so. Obviously we don't know that answer at this early stage, but something to think about. Part of me thinks it may not be a problem.

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Well it depends how fast the front is and if any leftover MCS debris hangs around the midday or so. Obviously we don't know that answer at this early stage, but something to think about. Part of me thinks it may not be a problem.

Even if we have high cloud debris that really shouldn't affect things too much

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Actually... sorry Wiz' - apparently KTAN is not updating their 18z NAM Bufkit data - it was stuck on a June 30, 2010 file and I verified that is what they are sending from their database - so they need to figure that out.

Anyway, below is the screen shot of the 12z for the best interval, 75 hours out, ...21Z. The PM has awesome cape, and up to that point there was a lot of CIN that you can see below rather abruptly "uncaps". That's good for explosive CB genesis, but noticed the Helicity is only a buck-50? The vectors in the graphical area confirm, and this would likely be a straight line outburst type event. Of course, this is just the 12z NAM. The GFS sucked -

post-904-0-16849800-1341179846_thumb.jpg

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Actually... sorry Wiz' - apparently KTAN is not updating their 18z NAM Bufkit data - it was stuck on a June 30, 2010 file and I verified that is what they are sending from their database - so they need to figure that out.

Anyway, below is the screen shot of the 12z for the best interval, 75 hours out, ...21Z. The PM has awesome cape, and up to that point there was a lot of CIN that you can see below rather abruptly "uncaps". That's good for explosive CB genesis, but noticed the Helicity is only a buck-50? The vectors in the graphical area confirm, and this would likely be a straight line outburst type event. Of course, this is just the 12z NAM. The GFS sucked -

post-904-0-16849800-1341179846_thumb.jpg

Talk about a damaging wind sounding!

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About to get into the mix here ..

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME

604 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

MEZ012-018-019-NHZ006-012230-

INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-INTERIOR YORK-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN OXFORD-

604 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OXFORD COUNTY...CARROLL COUNTY...

YORK COUNTY AND CUMBERLAND COUNTY THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 605 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF PORTER...OR ABOUT

13 MILES NORTHEAST OF OSSIPEE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STRONG

THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND PORTER...KEZAR FALLS...

HIRAM...WEST BALDWIN...CORNISH AND LIMINGTON THROUGH 630 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...

EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH

CAN BE EXPECTED.

BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THREATENING WEATHER

PASSES.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND STORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION...MOVE INDOORS

OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MORE THAN 5

MILES AWAY FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM.

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Where in Meriden were you? I was in Meriden as well. I was near South Main Street right in the parking lot of a McDonalds.

I was in South Meriden near the Wallingford border. Thought maybe some wind but all of a sudden quarters started falling...pretty intense storm.

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