Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,587
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread IV


NJwinter23

Recommended Posts

Leave early Tuesday morn like 6-7:00 am and come home Friday

It's possible there is an early morning MCS up there. However, the front might be through your area and possibly more of an SNE thing in the aftn. Still....NNE always seems to cook up storms when you don't expect it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 925
  • Created
  • Last Reply

azimuthal shear?

gate-to-gate azimuthal shear—Marked difference in Doppler velocity values at azimuthally adjacent range gates indicating the presence of the radial component of vorticity. Vorticity may be due to the presence of a tornado-sized vortex (tornadic vortex signature) or it may simply be caused by wind shear across a discontinuity boundary.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nothing surprising here..

...MID ATLANTIC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY FROM ERN VA TO SRN NEW

ENGLAND...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM 65-70 F. RECENT

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN SE NY ALONG A SURFACE

TROUGH...AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AROUND MIDDAY AS

THIS AREA IS BRUSHED BY A SUBTLE EMBEDDED SPEED MAX ROTATING EWD

FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE

NEAR 1500 J/KG...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 KT WILL SUPPORT

ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS /AND PERHAPS SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/

WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THIS

AFTERNOON.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah DXR/HVN special

Interesting how this morning you highlighted SE CT and now it's actually SW CT.

Personally I see a statewide threat..for storms..not necc severe..but the entire state is in a decent spot for storm dev. Dews still in the middle-upper 60's for most spots aside from BDL tarmac..nice heating and boundary to our NW.

Will be fun to see how this turns out today

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting how this morning you highlighted SE CT and now it's actually SW CT.

Personally I see a statewide threat..for storms..not necc severe..but the entire state is in a decent spot for storm dev. Dews still in the middle-upper 60's for most spots aside from BDL tarmac..nice heating and boundary to our NW.

Will be fun to see how this turns out today

He said srn CTand he's right. What a spinner. Sure maybe nrn CT can't be ruled out, but if I were you....I would expect to see more anvil cirrus than anything else.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1332

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1111 AM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...THE NORTHEAST/UPPER MID-ATLANTIC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 011611Z - 011715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM THIS AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT

THREATS FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO

SLIGHT RISK WITH THE 1630Z D1 OUTLOOK AND WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE

CONSIDERED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...CU HAS INITIATED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN NY

INTO CNTRL PA ALONG A WEAK LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE BENEATH THE

INFLUENCE OF SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT

LAKES. 12Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE ALONG WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE A

PRONOUNCED SIGNAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...LEADING TO INCREASING

CONFIDENCE THAT POTENTIALLY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM CENTERED

TOWARDS THE HUDSON VALLEY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE

UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE TO

UPPER 60S...WHICH IS YIELDING MODERATE BUOYANCY /INCREASING WITH SRN

EXTENT/ PER MODIFIED 12Z IAD/OKX RAOBS. MODERATELY STRONG NEARLY

UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZING UPDRAFTS

WITH THREATS OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He said srn CTand he's right. What a spinner. Sure maybe nrn CT can't be ruled out, but if I were you....I would expect to see more anvil cirrus than anything else.

Unfortunately for you, you don't have the benefit of seeing his smiling, face on tv everyday..where in fact he drew an imaginary line from Storrs to HVN southeast for greatest risk of storms today.

I'm not saying I'll see a storm. I might not..All I'm saying there is a risk for storms anywhere south of pike today

Link to comment
Share on other sites

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

WEST CENTRAL LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...

NORTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT

* AT 115 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

STANFORDVILLE...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RHINEBECK...AND MOVING EAST

AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

MILLBROOK BY 125 PM EDT...

AMENIA AND DOVER PLAINS BY 145 PM EDT...

SHARON BY 155 PM EDT...

KENT BY 200 PM EDT...

CORNWALL BRIDGE POTTERY AND CORNWALL BRIDGE BY 210 PM EDT...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...