CoastalWx Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Leave early Tuesday morn like 6-7:00 am and come home Friday It's possible there is an early morning MCS up there. However, the front might be through your area and possibly more of an SNE thing in the aftn. Still....NNE always seems to cook up storms when you don't expect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 HRRR continues to want to develop storms in SE NY and move them E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Well GL to you guys south of here. Your turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Well GL to you guys south of here. Your turn. ?? HRR gets all of CT involved with a nice line moving west to east. Who knows if it's right or not..but it looks good for many based on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Can someone toss up some HRRR images for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 What's azimuthal shear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 ?? HRR gets all of CT involved with a nice line moving west to east. Who knows if it's right or not..but it looks good for many based on that Well I guess things look decent...but I wouldn't think there would be anything severe unless we can destabilize a little more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 I'm not sure I'm seeing your "line" Kevin..unless I am missing something? Which image were you looking at? I think I'm looking at the wrong one anyway...that page is confusing as ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 82.7/67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 The 13z HRRR is much less impressive than 12z. It still gets southern CT a bit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 The 13z HRRR is much less impressive than 12z. It still gets southern CT a bit though. Which is weird because I thought the params looked a little better if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 There's a nice CU field going up north of POU on east. Winds are SE at HFD with a dew of 66...Pretty to easy to see where the boundary lies today. If there's going to be any storms should be from about the MA/CT/NY border south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 azimuthal shear? gate-to-gate azimuthal shear—Marked difference in Doppler velocity values at azimuthally adjacent range gates indicating the presence of the radial component of vorticity. Vorticity may be due to the presence of a tornado-sized vortex (tornadic vortex signature) or it may simply be caused by wind shear across a discontinuity boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Thanks for the definition! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Slight risk!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Slight risk!!!!!!!!!!!! FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 On my back to CT now then going to Meriden for a grad party then can chase from there!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 FTW Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Nothing surprising here.. ...MID ATLANTIC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY FROM ERN VA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM 65-70 F. RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN SE NY ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH...AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AROUND MIDDAY AS THIS AREA IS BRUSHED BY A SUBTLE EMBEDDED SPEED MAX ROTATING EWD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS /AND PERHAPS SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 This looks like a DXR deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 This looks like a DXR deal. Yeah DXR/HVN special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 ASOUT dews continue to mix out over most areas outside of south coast and NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Anyone know any apps or something that can give you alerts on your phone for watches or warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Yeah DXR/HVN special Interesting how this morning you highlighted SE CT and now it's actually SW CT. Personally I see a statewide threat..for storms..not necc severe..but the entire state is in a decent spot for storm dev. Dews still in the middle-upper 60's for most spots aside from BDL tarmac..nice heating and boundary to our NW. Will be fun to see how this turns out today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Interesting how this morning you highlighted SE CT and now it's actually SW CT. Personally I see a statewide threat..for storms..not necc severe..but the entire state is in a decent spot for storm dev. Dews still in the middle-upper 60's for most spots aside from BDL tarmac..nice heating and boundary to our NW. Will be fun to see how this turns out today He said srn CTand he's right. What a spinner. Sure maybe nrn CT can't be ruled out, but if I were you....I would expect to see more anvil cirrus than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1332 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...THE NORTHEAST/UPPER MID-ATLANTIC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY VALID 011611Z - 011715Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM THIS AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK WITH THE 1630Z D1 OUTLOOK AND WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE CONSIDERED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DISCUSSION...CU HAS INITIATED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN NY INTO CNTRL PA ALONG A WEAK LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE BENEATH THE INFLUENCE OF SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. 12Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE ALONG WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE A PRONOUNCED SIGNAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...LEADING TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT POTENTIALLY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM CENTERED TOWARDS THE HUDSON VALLEY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...WHICH IS YIELDING MODERATE BUOYANCY /INCREASING WITH SRN EXTENT/ PER MODIFIED 12Z IAD/OKX RAOBS. MODERATELY STRONG NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZING UPDRAFTS WITH THREATS OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 He said srn CTand he's right. What a spinner. Sure maybe nrn CT can't be ruled out, but if I were you....I would expect to see more anvil cirrus than anything else. Unfortunately for you, you don't have the benefit of seeing his smiling, face on tv everyday..where in fact he drew an imaginary line from Storrs to HVN southeast for greatest risk of storms today. I'm not saying I'll see a storm. I might not..All I'm saying there is a risk for storms anywhere south of pike today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 First storm of day firing in ENY heading twds Litchfield Cty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Another one popping in Berkshire Cty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT... NORTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK... * UNTIL 215 PM EDT * AT 115 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR STANFORDVILLE...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RHINEBECK...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... MILLBROOK BY 125 PM EDT... AMENIA AND DOVER PLAINS BY 145 PM EDT... SHARON BY 155 PM EDT... KENT BY 200 PM EDT... CORNWALL BRIDGE POTTERY AND CORNWALL BRIDGE BY 210 PM EDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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