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Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread IV


NJwinter23

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BDL 76 at 1230am. 76/51 why are they not cooling more. 20C 850 right next to them on SPC meso scale map. could they roast to 100 tommorrow. perhaps

This is complicated, but usually, dry air arrival comes along with the type of CAA where the advection is both temperature AND dp - it is important to realize there can be a disconnect between the two. This airmass is kinetically active, meaning, the actual temperature advection is not substantial. If there was a mechanism present that would WB the temperatures, the cool back would be more pronounced, as the dry air came in. Sometimes warm nights don't have attending higher DPs.

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Well tomorrow looks sunny for most of the day so that shouldn't be a problem to destabilize

Well the issue is getting high dews in here... and also trying to get a decent looking mid level lapse rate in here. Depends on what kind of convection we see today to our west.

SREFs were bullish with the instability for tomorrow. Decent shear and a decent shortwave.

Higher dews/stronger shortwave should help erode the cap. NAM/GFS don't show a whole lot of CIN tomorrow down here.

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One thing I am noticing from the 50,000 foot view for the Thursday - next Tuesday or so time frame is the general appeal of having west and event west-northwest screaming 500mb velocities blowing over top a SW lower tropospheric flow. That's not very intrinsically stable if you get my drift. That's sort of geostrophic turn with altitude is a member of the MCS checklist I believe, and having 101 in Indiana while it is 75 N of Lake Superior seems like a nice recipe for derechio genesis as just about any time ...nocturnally favored.

ZOMB!

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Will likely be a nowcast deal to be honest. No sure if winds remained back enough to bring in high dews. Plus I'm not sure how lapse rates modify upstream with today's convection.

Euro looked like more CT/RI and ern MA. At least there is s/w coming through to help.

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I think the models may be overdoing dews for tomorrow. NAM gets SE CT/S RI near 70 tomorrow afternoon while MET MOS keeps dews around 60ish. Maybe the op runs and SREF members are picking up something that MOS can't.

Getting dews up will be the key tomorrow.

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I think the models may be overdoing dews for tomorrow. NAM gets SE CT/S RI near 70 tomorrow afternoon while MET MOS keeps dews around 60ish. Maybe the op runs and SREF members are picking up something that MOS can't.

Getting dews up will be the key tomorrow.

Well 70F dews should be no problem in Tolland since that is more representative of the conditions than the ASOS readings.

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