Tropopause_Fold Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 At first I thought scud, but the lowering and what looked like weak rotation made me question that. i'd say funnel. at the end it almost looks like it's touched too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 i'd say funnel. at the end it almost looks like it's touched too. I thought funnel as well, but granted that I've never even seen a tornado..I wanted to see what others thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I thought funnel as well, but granted that I've never even seen a tornado..I wanted to see what others thought. yeah that's a handicap for us. that's pretty decent turning there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Good observation, you can definitely tell there was an embedded shortwave in there. Looking into it more, SPC does appear spot on with the trajectory of any t-storm clusters that develop today heading ESE. but by morning it looks like the mid-level flow turns favorable for a more west to east storm motion through Saturday. The problem then becomes though if were on the favorable side of that moisture boundary that CT Rain mentioned. We'll see. The 06z NAM was further south and the 12z NAM is rolling now and it looks like it will be further south still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 There also appears to be two different disturbances (an early / south one and a late / north one) moving through with strong theta-e advection occuring in the coastal plain. Could make for an interesting wind profile near the gradient ahead of any wave. I noticed the 6z nam shows that evolution very well. that would make a lot of people happy at least. It's funny how what is perceived as a Friday/Sunday threat days in advance turns into a Saturday threat..you were well aware of that though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 What a ridiculous EML. The new SPC paints the picture well and you get the idea simply by looking at their risk lines. Can't wait to see what happens out of this, even if they continue to miss me. Seems like the very dry weather from the SW to the midwest is causing those more frequent and more intense EML outbreaks you were talking about the other day. BUF had 15C at 700mb...that's unbelievable. Has it gotten so dry that we have "too much of a good thing" though? Low-level dewpoints have suffered due to the lack of evapo-transpiration over the midwest so breaking the cap seems quite difficult. BUF had a ridiculous EML outbreak a few weeks ago and we got squat out of it, also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 There also appears to be two different disturbances (an early / south one and a late / north one) moving through with strong theta-e advection occuring in the coastal plain. Could make for an interesting wind profile near the gradient ahead of any wave. It is amazing to me that you have an intelligent poster willing to share his thoughts on the long range for free and then someone takes the time to type up that kind of response to him. Don S is one of the most knowledgeable Met/Non Met's on this board and his track record speaks volumes, To have some ignorant posters come in, With zero science contributions and then call him out, I would consider it as a troll post and would be handing out 5 day vacations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Scud or funnel? http://www.facebook....v=4252608078183 Looks like a funnel, I followed that cell on radar and it looked like it had possibilities of some rotation in it, You can see where it almost makes landfall briefly before it dissipates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Seems like the very dry weather from the SW to the midwest is causing those more frequent and more intense EML outbreaks you were talking about the other day. BUF had 15C at 700mb...that's unbelievable. Has it gotten so dry that we have "too much of a good thing" though? Low-level dewpoints have suffered due to the lack of evapo-transpiration over the midwest so breaking the cap seems quite difficult. BUF had a ridiculous EML outbreak a few weeks ago and we got squat out of it, also. A few things here: 1. I like your thoughts on the evapo-transpiration dewpoint connection from the Corn Belt because if you noticed in the EML composite years, (referring to the blog post about seasonal severe prediction for the NE) they were all wet in the Midwest during MAM while the southern Plains were dry. 2. This is why I can't wait for further research into the null cases. I would imagine that an EML like today could potentially make it into the fail category. Although, if significant severe happens in portions of ME, PA and NJ, perhaps it wouldn't be a total failure then. But it definitely is a fail for New England. 3. There is more to a widespread EML outbreak than just the EML as you have suggested and there is a certain pattern that needs to present itself. For example, the ECMWF is close to having that next weekend as the trough progresses into W. Canada and a strong wave dives through the Hudson overtop the amplifying ridge. This could certainly play out to bring a more classic set up for the Northeast than this weekend's EML. This weekend's EML is not really failing because of the dewpoints as much as it is the overall pattern which is supporting the mixing / lower dews. If the heart of the EML anomaly / Mid Level Lapse Rate Max / 700mb Anomaly took a more classic route into New England / Quebec / Ontario, then the moisture pooling would have been better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 EML-induced severe weather outbreaks in the Northeast tend to happen on the periphery of the EML which is pretty intuitive if you think about basic anticyclones and summertime convection. Therefore, the pattern all along has favored the Mid Atlantic for this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 on a non-regional note, WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 on a non-regional note, WOW. Yesterday evening, MLCAPE values were exceeding 7500 j/kg over portions of IL. There has been some sick instability! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Not for Tolland. There was little if any north of BDR. I think its pretty obvious I was referring to Kevin's back yard. There was always a chance by me but luckily still got in the 557am tee time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 A few things here: 1. I like your thoughts on the evapo-transpiration dewpoint connection from the Corn Belt because if you noticed in the EML composite years, (referring to the blog post about seasonal severe prediction for the NE) they were all wet in the Midwest during MAM while the southern Plains were dry. 2. This is why I can't wait for further research into the null cases. I would imagine that an EML like today could potentially make it into the fail category. Although, if significant severe happens in portions of ME, PA and NJ, perhaps it wouldn't be a total failure then. But it definitely is a fail for New England. 3. There is more to a widespread EML outbreak than just the EML as you have suggested and there is a certain pattern that needs to present itself. For example, the ECMWF is close to having that next weekend as the trough progresses into W. Canada and a strong wave dives through the Hudson overtop the amplifying ridge. This could certainly play out to bring a more classic set up for the Northeast than this weekend's EML. This weekend's EML is not really failing because of the dewpoints as much as it is the overall pattern which is supporting the mixing / lower dews. If the heart of the EML anomaly / Mid Level Lapse Rate Max / 700mb Anomaly took a more classic route into New England / Quebec / Ontario, then the moisture pooling would have been better. Yeah, good point. Looks like Indiana might get their MCS/derecho today. The shortwave that cross the lakes yesterday afternoon/evening probably would have done more in Michigan/Ohio/PA if the EML had just been a bit weaker and the dews had been a bit higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 What a complete PHAIL THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND WHETHER ANY CONVECTION CAN REDEVELOP AS SUNSHINE AND HEATING WILL RESULT IN ATMOSPHERE BECOMING RATHER UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING /WHICH BECOMES FAIRLY DEEP/ WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN A SUFFICIENT CAP SO WE ARE LEANING AGAINST FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SO WHILE TCU IS EXPECTED ONCE DRY AIR ALOFT BECOMES ENTRAINED UPDRAFTS WILL STRUGGLE TO GROW. THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Yesterday evening, MLCAPE values were exceeding 7500 j/kg over portions of IL. There has been some sick instability! Insane...and they are only 93(lol its 11 ****ing AM) on their way to 100+ again in the next couple hrs..Me thinks we'll see the 7500+ again shortly. Impressive looking storms already on the nw edge of that crazy instability too. I just saw some echo tops reach the 60,000ft threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 The strong east-west ridge located in the south/central US can be a good pattern for high-end severe weather as long as you have a strong east-west moving shortwave ala 1985/1998/2011. We didn't quite get that this time. The more classic mid summer set-up for the northeast is to have the ridge centered a bit farther northeast than currently with a shortwave dropping northwest from central/eastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Insane...and they are only 93(lol its 11 ****ing AM) on their way to 100+ again in the next couple hrs..Me thinks we'll see the 7500+ again shortly. Impressive looking storms already on the nw edge of that crazy instability too. Their surface sat. mix. ratios are exceeding 20 g/kg with a derecho composite maxing out near 16 over IN. I think we are going to see a show today man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Insane...and they are only 93(lol its 11 ****ing AM) on their way to 100+ again in the next couple hrs..Me thinks we'll see the 7500+ again shortly. Impressive looking storms already on the nw edge of that crazy instability too. I just saw some echo tops reach the 60,000ft threshold. Some places on the 12th/13th July 1995 (Davenport, IA etc.) had CAPE of about 10000 j/kg in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Their surface sat. mix. ratios are exceeding 20 g/kg with a derecho composite maxing out near 16 over IN. I think we are going to see a show today man. Couldn't agree more. Look at these overshooting echo tops reaching the 60,000ft threshold already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Isn't MCS generation favored in the evening, though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Scud or funnel? http://www.facebook....v=4252608078183 I think I am inclined to go with funnel. Looked like a pretty decent lowering in the cloud base there. And looking at it even closer, there did appear to be some rotation and some rising motion in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Any shot of a storm in ne mass this pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Any shot of a storm in ne mass this pm There is a "shot", I don't know how good of a shot there is, but there is a shot. The next few hours will be key. We need to see how well the atmosphere can rebound after this mornings rain. Looking at surface plots, the "cold" front appears to be making its way through Buffalo or somewhere just east of there. So we do have some time to play with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 We shall see what we can muster later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/35207-june-28-july-4th-severe-potential/page__st__175__p__1616616#entry1616616 i would love to see this in person some day...pics as the storms approached chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I'd say there is a small chance east of the ct river of popping a few storms later this aftn. Probably very isolated, but a small chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 At first I thought scud, but the lowering and what looked like weak rotation made me question that. Definitely some slow rotation there. Like I was taught for spotter training, if you can see rotation with the naked eye it is signifcant rotation. We also teach the half way down rule for the purposes of reporting tornado versus funnel. Chances are if it is halfway to the ground it has at least some contact with the ground. So that looks dangerously close to a missed event for us, of course there have been no reports of damage either. That's the trouble with the "cold-air" funnel/landspout days, you don't necessarily need lightning or even 50 dBZ to get something to briefly touch down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 http://www.americanw...16#entry1616616 i would love to see this in person some day...pics as the storms approached chicago You wouldn't have to spend too long out there either. After I got the job at DVN, I spent 24 hours out there looking for an apartment, and spent an hour of that inside a tornado warning. Wasted no time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Pretty good Cu field developing in the northern CT River Valley now, HRRR wants to develop convection here ahead of the stuff in southern Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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