weatherwiz Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Mon. July 9th? Upcoming Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 +RN, 30-35 dbz's, So far no convection with these showers that are moving thru right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Big big day incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Big big day incoming. It could be this afternoon, We will have to wait and see how much we heat up during the day and destabilize, SPC's preliminary forecast has some interest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I'll probably be awakened tomorow at 4am to a clap of thunder as a decaying MCS moves through (can't wait! ) This happened to me this morning. A nice early thunderstorm to start the day. The best of the MCS went south of me though through the heart of the Delaware Valley. We do this again tomorrow down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 in your dreams, literally and figuratively. oooooops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 oooooops. He was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 It could be this afternoon, We will have to wait and see how much we heat up during the day and destabilize, SPC's preliminary forecast has some interest It may be more AUG on north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 He was right. Storms blew through here, what are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Storms blew through here, what are you talking about? Not for Tolland. There was little if any north of BDR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Not for Tolland. There was little if any north of BDR. ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 This happened to me this morning. A nice early thunderstorm to start the day. The best of the MCS went south of me though through the heart of the Delaware Valley. We do this again tomorrow down here? Hopefully a bit further north this time...but as of now models dont want anything further north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 It may be more AUG on north? GYX has us in a hazardous weather outlook, Its possible its ends up north of here, We get split alot, I don't know how accurate SPC's probability's are but they are just to my south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 The morning sounding goes to GSO: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/12062912_OBS/GSO.gif You just might find an EML on this sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 The morning sounding goes to GSO: http://www.spc.noaa....912_OBS/GSO.gif You just might find an EML on this sounding. What the hell is that for, El Paso? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 This happened to me this morning. A nice early thunderstorm to start the day. The best of the MCS went south of me though through the heart of the Delaware Valley. We do this again tomorrow down here? Haha yeah i was awakened at 5am and had a good laugh...That MCS was no slouch just south of you (big surprise that it just missed lol). I see no reason why we wouldn't repeat tomorrow morning (and again sunday AM?). Aftn MCS develops in the Midwest today and heads east overnight. And if anything, the mid-level flow looks more favorable to send an MCS due east across our area. This morning I would have thought the MCS would turn a bit more south then it did. Either way, I'll sign up for this in the afternoon please lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Though SPC seems to like the further south track into the DC area...hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 What the hell is that for, El Paso? LOL. What a ridiculous EML. The new SPC paints the picture well and you get the idea simply by looking at their risk lines. Can't wait to see what happens out of this, even if they continue to miss me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 What a ridiculous EML. The new SPC paints the picture well and you get the idea simply by looking at their risk lines. Can't wait to see what happens out of this, even if they continue to miss me. Yeah no kidding. The NAM is awfully far north with that MCS... especially given the fact tomorrow there doesn't appear to be a whole lot of instability north of NYC thanks to a relatively dry boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Haha yeah i was awakened at 5am and had a good laugh...That MCS was no slouch just south of you (big surprise that it just missed lol). I see no reason why we wouldn't repeat tomorrow morning (and again sunday AM?). Aftn MCS develops in the Midwest today and heads east overnight. And if anything, the mid-level flow looks more favorable to send an MCS due east across our area. This morning I would have thought the MCS would turn a bit more south then it did. The way things were evolving after midnight, I figured I was screwed for a good night's rest (even if the MCS failed...rim shot). This morning's "MCS" was probably more of an MCC and it was associated with a pretty decent mid level disturbance. I think between the limited size of the cluster and the more robust synoptic features, the Corfidi Effect was, well...ineffective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Yeah no kidding. The NAM is awfully far north with that MCS... especially given the fact tomorrow there doesn't appear to be a whole lot of instability north of NYC thanks to a relatively dry boundary layer. But there is mid level channelized vorticity along the theta-e gradient. I would imagine that this would be the upper bound of any thunderstorm cluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 A bit off topic...you guys want a laugh? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/34633-medium-range-discussion-summer-2012/page__st__35__p__1616118#entry1616118 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 But there is mid level channelized vorticity along the theta-e gradient. I would imagine that this would be the upper bound of any thunderstorm cluster. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 A bit off topic...you guys want a laugh? http://www.americanw...18#entry1616118 LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 The way things were evolving after midnight, I figured I was screwed for a good night's rest (even if the MCS failed...rim shot). This morning's "MCS" was probably more of an MCC and it was associated with a pretty decent mid level disturbance. I think between the limited size of the cluster and the more robust synoptic features, the Corfidi Effect was, well...ineffective. Good observation, you can definitely tell there was an embedded shortwave in there. Looking into it more, SPC does appear spot on with the trajectory of any t-storm clusters that develop today heading ESE. but by morning it looks like the mid-level flow turns favorable for a more west to east storm motion through Saturday. The problem then becomes though if were on the favorable side of that moisture boundary that CT Rain mentioned. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Some very disrespectful posters on this board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Scud or funnel? http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=4252608078183 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Good observation, you can definitely tell there was an embedded shortwave in there. Looking into it more, SPC does appear spot on with the trajectory of any t-storm clusters that develop today heading ESE. but by morning it looks like the mid-level flow turns favorable for a more west to east storm motion through Saturday. The problem then becomes though if were on the favorable side of that moisture boundary that CT Rain mentioned. We'll see. There also appears to be two different disturbances (an early / south one and a late / north one) moving through with strong theta-e advection occuring in the coastal plain. Could make for an interesting wind profile near the gradient ahead of any wave. Some very disrespectful posters on this board It is amazing to me that you have an intelligent poster willing to share his thoughts on the long range for free and then someone takes the time to type up that kind of response to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Scud or funnel? http://www.facebook....v=4252608078183 At first I thought scud, but the lowering and what looked like weak rotation made me question that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Couple rumbles in Wrentham? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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