OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Oh that..lol. I thought you meant something else. I see a small cell firing off to the north, but that's a decent cap right there. I wonder how the WAA ahead of it works overnight. Maybe some stuff firing near Lake Ontario. The most recent HRRR run (22z) actually goes ballistic with SE MI and develops a pretty healthy looking MCS over the lake. Almost maintains it to the Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Smallest severe thunderstorm watch in history? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 wtf is this???? http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ww0433.html Kind of funny to see such a small watch, but I bet the get the required number of reports to verify it. That complex looks like it's prime to develop a nice cold pool and accelerate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 The most recent HRRR run (22z) actually goes ballistic with SE MI and develops a pretty healthy looking MCS over the lake. Almost maintains it to the Hudson. The HRRR is going ballistic with convection??? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 wtf is this???? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0433.html There probably has been warnings bigger than that. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Kind of funny to see such a small watch, but I bet the get the required number of reports to verify it. That complex looks like it's prime to develop a nice cold pool and accelerate. Yeah those storms are beasts. Surprised they didn't issue it for places fartehr downstream too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Seems like a few cells near Detroit have fired and then fallen apart. Seems like they can't sustain themselves with that CIN. Funny that the HRRR developed cells way NW. I wonder if these couple of cells may be the start of something....maybe HRRR had the right idea, but wrong place? Sometimes they just find a way to break the cap and go boom. Would think something pops up there or within a hundred miles in either direction. I'm not really banking on the MCS..I would rather just have it not occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Yeah those storms are beasts. Surprised they didn't issue it for places fartehr downstream too? They are heading into the teeth of the ridge, probably worried about them petering out downstream as forcing leaves them to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 WSI's 4km WRF has some big storms tomorrow as far south as PWM tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 WSI's 4km WRF has some big storms tomorrow as far south as PWM tomorrow afternoon. I just looked at that. I was watching to see what it did with those DTW cells too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I just looked at that. I was watching to see what it did with those DTW cells too. Look at the 00z run. Fires everything WAY north of Detroit into Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 WSI's 4km WRF has some big storms tomorrow as far south as PWM tomorrow afternoon. That's probably the right southern extent of the threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 That's probably the right southern extent of the threat. Yeah I agree with that. Seems like enough QG forcing north of there to get things going. Going to need a miracle for SNE lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Look at the 00z run. Fires everything WAY north of Detroit into Ontario. Yeah that seems a little robust and north. Although might not be that off as some models did put stuff in NY State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Yeah that seems a little robust and north. Although might not be that off as some models did put stuff in NY State. I'm hoping to wake up to a sunsational morning!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I'm hoping to wake up to a sunsational morning!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I have tomorrow off. Hoping for the same, if I can't even get a TCU to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I have tomorrow off. Hoping for the same, if I can't even get a TCU to form. Yeah I'm off as well. Thinking about heading down to the beach or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I was trying to find the pic I sent to BOX of the 2" hail in Duxbury during the tstm on Memorial weekend 2009. It was oblong meaning not round, but they were everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I was trying to find the pic I sent to BOX of the 2" hail in Duxbury during the tstm on Memorial weekend 2009. It was oblong meaning not round, but they were everywhere. Bored? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Bored? I've finished my work and it's been extremely quiet over the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I've finished my work and it's been extremely quiet over the last few days. Yeah I know. Quiet here at work too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Probably stay up for the 21z SPC SREF then head to bed...waking up at 4:15 AM for work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Just like that the Chicago storms have fizzled. Elevated stuff is getting going near Cleveland now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I do like the trend that the HRRR is showing (though I'm still not convinced it has timing quite right - might be a couple hours too slow even based on current shortwave speed). As a proxy for satellite presentation tomorrow morning, should have nice clearing behind the morning shortwave. And based off the visible this evening this should be true. At the same time, CAPE is sloshing back northward behind the shortwave and ahead of the front. Narrow window, but it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 no worse than asking for a laminated map of the U.S., dry-erase markers and then making stick on "H"s and "L"s Or mapping out exactly where highways, stare roads, and your location is to make sure you know where you are when Dick Albert or Harvey threw up a snow map. Our poor parents must have thought we were special. You guys just absolutely made my night with these posts. I had a map of the U.S. that I would draw in highs and lows on. I drew in so many H and L that they eventually became part of the map. I couldn't erase them off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I would gladly take that. Models seem to have a pretty good handle on this lead shortwave, correctly placing it over Lake Michigan. This is what screws SNE I think, while you guys get the subsidence following that wave, a secondary northern stream wave dives down across NNE. That is what should pop the cap up here, but I don't think SNE gets brushed enough to really force some ascent. WV loop shows that northern stream feature pretty well, right about northern MN to just N of Lake Superior. Glad that I read through the nights post. Because I was going to post almost exactly what you said here and I couldn't have said it any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Storms just blew through here. Lots of wind and heavy rain for about 10 minutes. Winds gusted to about 35-40 mph. Not as much thunder and lightning as I was expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Maybe some svr on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Maybe some svr on Monday? Mon. July 9th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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