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Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread IV


NJwinter23

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Oh that..lol. I thought you meant something else.

I see a small cell firing off to the north, but that's a decent cap right there. I wonder how the WAA ahead of it works overnight. Maybe some stuff firing near Lake Ontario.

The most recent HRRR run (22z) actually goes ballistic with SE MI and develops a pretty healthy looking MCS over the lake. Almost maintains it to the Hudson.

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Kind of funny to see such a small watch, but I bet the get the required number of reports to verify it. That complex looks like it's prime to develop a nice cold pool and accelerate.

Yeah those storms are beasts. Surprised they didn't issue it for places fartehr downstream too?

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Seems like a few cells near Detroit have fired and then fallen apart. Seems like they can't sustain themselves with that CIN.

Funny that the HRRR developed cells way NW. I wonder if these couple of cells may be the start of something....maybe HRRR had the right idea, but wrong place? Sometimes they just find a way to break the cap and go boom. Would think something pops up there or within a hundred miles in either direction. I'm not really banking on the MCS..I would rather just have it not occur.

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I do like the trend that the HRRR is showing (though I'm still not convinced it has timing quite right - might be a couple hours too slow even based on current shortwave speed).

ulwrf_t3nta_f15.png

As a proxy for satellite presentation tomorrow morning, should have nice clearing behind the morning shortwave. And based off the visible this evening this should be true.

mxcp_t3sfc_f15.png

At the same time, CAPE is sloshing back northward behind the shortwave and ahead of the front. Narrow window, but it's there.

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no worse than asking for a laminated map of the U.S., dry-erase markers and then making stick on "H"s and "L"s

:lol:

Or mapping out exactly where highways, stare roads, and your location is to make sure you know where you are when Dick Albert or Harvey threw up a snow map.

Our poor parents must have thought we were special.

You guys just absolutely made my night with these posts. I had a map of the U.S. that I would draw in highs and lows on. I drew in so many H and L that they eventually became part of the map. I couldn't erase them off.

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I would gladly take that.

Models seem to have a pretty good handle on this lead shortwave, correctly placing it over Lake Michigan. This is what screws SNE I think, while you guys get the subsidence following that wave, a secondary northern stream wave dives down across NNE. That is what should pop the cap up here, but I don't think SNE gets brushed enough to really force some ascent.

WV loop shows that northern stream feature pretty well, right about northern MN to just N of Lake Superior.

Glad that I read through the nights post. Because I was going to post almost exactly what you said here and I couldn't have said it any better.

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