NJwinter23 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Friday still looks like a legit opportunity for the mid-Atlantic and new england. Big time EML still shown on the gfs advecting in, but with that we get a big time cap. Wind fields dont look spectacular to my eyes, but it looks like >30kts 0-6km unidirectional shear on the latest gfs for northern mid-Atlantic and looking at the BDL bufkits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Friday still looks like a legit opportunity for the mid-Atlantic and new england. Big time EML still shown on the gfs advecting in, but with that we get a big time cap. Wind fields dont look spectacular to my eyes, but it looks like >30kts 0-6km unidirectional shear on the latest gfs for northern mid-Atlantic and looking at the BDL bufkits. Yeah wind fields are interesting up this way, especially in NNE. I just hope the MA stuff doesn't steal the show and we get the debris, but the overall Friday setup is kind of interesting. Euro has just enough of a s/w do get things going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Yeah wind fields are interesting up this way, especially in NNE. I just hope the MA stuff doesn't steal the show and we get the debris, but the overall Friday setup is kind of interesting. Euro has just enough of a s/w do get things going. Maybe I'll chase on Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 You can really see on radar up here the water banking up against the foothills and mtns here, Some of these areas may see 2-3"+ of rainfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Maybe I'll chase on Friday! What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 You can really see on radar up here the water banking up against the foothills and mtns here, Some of these areas may see 2-3"+ of rainfall orographic enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 orographic enhancement. Basically the same effect in the winter with snowfall, There are flood watches posted for that area as showers are rotating in from the ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Yeah wind fields are interesting up this way, especially in NNE. I just hope the MA stuff doesn't steal the show and we get the debris, but the overall Friday setup is kind of interesting. Euro has just enough of a s/w do get things going. I am also worried about the Mid Atlantic potentially stealing the potential Friday. What both the GFS and ECMWF agree on is the potential Sunday has with strong deep layer and directional shear. The ECMWF is slower with the s/w and FROPA which may be an inhibitor for us but man I like the way that looks. Friday and even Saturday can go anyway at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 You can really see on radar up here the water banking up against the foothills and mtns here, Some of these areas may see 2-3"+ of rainfall Jeff how much this month up there? Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Finally getting some sun now at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 I am also worried about the Mid Atlantic potentially stealing the potential Friday. What both the GFS and ECMWF agree on is the potential Sunday has with strong deep layer and directional shear. The ECMWF is slower with the s/w and FROPA which may be an inhibitor for us but man I like the way that looks. Friday and even Saturday can go anyway at this point. Seems like you feel it's a toss up on Friday whether it's mid-atlantic or northeast. Would definitely appear that way when it comes to those impulses moving west to east from the Midwest. I'd say we are in a good spot climo wise in NJ in this set up, but that is likely cancelled out and then some by our bad luck presence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Here on the midcoast, we are sitting at 11.79" rain for June so far. That's including 1.00" received since midnight. All of it thanks to the epic rainfall earlier in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 I think Friday and Sunday both have potential. A lot of moving parts but there will be some shortwaves in the flow and some periods of decent ML lapse rates in appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Jeff how much this month up there? Crazy Steve, We are approaching 12" for the month here, I have the exact numbers on my computer at home, This is getting really old up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Just starting to look a bit closer. 6z GFS has a great EML signal showing up late Friday. Also has 40 knots of 0-6km deep layer shear. Very impressive. While tornadoes would be unlikely due to straight hodographs... it seems like a great supercell setup if we can break the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Steve, We are approaching 12" for the month here, I have the exact numbers on my computer at home, This is getting really old up this way Wow. I was at 6.95" at 7 this morning, and the heavier rain has stayed to the west of MBY (except for the big area staying to the east.) We've done okay with most of the widespread rains, today notwithstanding, but have successfully eluded anything remotely close to severe (for the past six yr!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Wow. I was at 6.95" at 7 this morning, and the heavier rain has stayed to the west of MBY (except for the big area staying to the east.) We've done okay with most of the widespread rains, today notwithstanding, but have successfully eluded anything remotely close to severe (for the past six yr!) I am going to be under that, But we were at 7.41" just the 1st week of June here, Your area seems to get missed more then hit, Its has to the location by nature as it relates to the foothills and mtns plus storm direction it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 This ones for you Wiz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 very picturesque towers going up now. couple very small showers showing up on radar too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 I am going to be under that, But we were at 7.41" just the 1st week of June here, Your area seems to get missed more then hit, Its has to the location by nature as it relates to the foothills and mtns plus storm direction it seems Though nominally in the foothills, MBY at 390' is really part of the Sandy River lowlands, outside the floodplain but w/o any elev/orographic enhancements. Usually doesn't make much difference in synoptic snowstorms, 2010-11 excepted, but apparently has a big influence on convective severity. Quite a nice spot, nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 very picturesque towers going up now. couple very small showers showing up on radar too. Bottle up today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 7 minute shower just built up over my head here. Doesn't show on radar but enough to wet the pavement....just like that the sun is out again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Some lightning showing up with those cells in SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 The s/w timing on the euro isn't exactly great for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 More lightning west of phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Some lightning showing up with those cells in SE MA. Are there any free radar applications that show lightning strikes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Are there any free radar applications that show lightning strikes? I can't think of any off the top of my head. Your best bet is looking at radar and assuming those cells showing orange or better (say greater than 40dbz) could produce lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Either way regarding this weekend....any s/w could produce some pretty strong tstms, given the environment. I like where we are in terms of being on the srn edge of the westerlies and prone to s/w's coming through the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Some lightning showing up with those cells in SE MA. Just started pouring here. Not showing up well on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Just started pouring here. Not showing up well on radar. They are really small, but spitting out bolts. The kind of cells you can probably see through because the rain shaft is so small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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