Allsnow Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 well the rumors that this summer was not going to be hot seemto be put to bed. First month of met summer finished dead on normal ....see what july does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 well the rumors that this summer was not going to be hot seemto be put to bed. June was near normal, and we're not even a week into July. A little early for that statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 The first 10 days will be at least +7...just don't see any way july ends up below normal. If the heat breaks next week and doesn't return we might end up in the +2-+3 range all said and done June was near normal, and we're not even a week into July. A little early for that statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 whether it was normal or not overall...the last 3 weeks have been hot. We are on our third heatwave in 3 weeks. We are piling up 90+ degree readings. If you want to go back to early June and talk about that fine but I would say that its irrelevant to whats going on now. I kept hearing post on this forum about heat being short lived, only short pulses of heat...well now they seem to be getting longer and longer and a pattern has progressed. People throw the idea of troughs out there thinking we are going into the 70s when it will only cool into the mid 80s next week and the possibility of merging highs beyond that to lock in some more heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Summer sucks. Who the hell likes to sweat and smell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Summer sucks. Who the hell likes to sweat and smell. are you 14? life revolves around summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 are you 14? life revolves around summer Life revolves around WINTER! Summer stinks and we'll never agree, so we might as well just accept we won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Summer sucks. Who the hell likes to sweat and smell. Heat doesn't really bother me, but I hate sweating. are you 14? life revolves around summer Not for me, life revolves around winter cold and snow. There is nothing like a day in the single digits, a 35 MPH wind from the NW, and some blowing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 PATTERN CHANGE ON THE WAY FOR THE NATION! Big cool down coming to the Midwest with lots of heavy rains as whatever heat is left gets pushed to the west coast and likely stays there most of the month. The hottest weather reached over the past 2 weeks and into this weekend will most likely be the hottest part of this summer. Any heat that comes should be very brief and not so hot. Long stretches of near to below normal on the way. Developing nino, +nao, and negative pna... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 are you 14? life revolves around summer My shoe size is 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Joe B: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=NPW High heat this aft. read statement, no mention of ACTUAL highs, just real feel. noon temps in mid 80s not hi heat On long island, winds are on shore and noon temps are around 80. Arent we getting a bit carried away. It is summer in NYC Just trying to add perspective. It ACTUALLY REACHED 107 in July 1966 heat wave, not real feel Central US, yes you have the real deal with or without real feel, but hold on , relief is coming in a few days BTW The 107 was at LGA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Not for me, life revolves around winter cold and snow. There is nothing like a day in the single digits, a 35 MPH wind from the NW, and some blowing snow. FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Joe B: BTW The 107 was at LGA... and ewr hit 108 last summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 PATTERN CHANGE ON THE WAY FOR THE NATION! Big cool down coming to the Midwest with lots of heavy rains as whatever heat is left gets pushed to the west coast and likely stays there most of the month. The hottest weather reached over the past 2 weeks and into this weekend will most likely be the hottest part of this summer. Any heat that comes should be very brief and not so hot. Long stretches of near to below normal on the way. Developing nino, +nao, and negative pna... love the wishcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 love the wishcasting Wishcasting? Lol... You are the one saying 2 weeks into the summer its gonna be a hot summer when june just finished average and your not explaining why. Just because it's been hot last two weeks doesn't mean it's going to be hot the rest of the summer. Snow in late October didn't mean it was going to be a cold winter. What signals, models, analogs are you seeing that are showing the opposite of what I'm saying? Better yet, what Met is seeing what you are seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 and ewr hit 108 last summer Besides the fact that everybody around the area was 4-6 degrees cooler , 108 at Newark in 2011 not nearly as empressive as LGA at 107 in the 1966 before so called "global warming" came. Besides when is Newark not the hot spot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Besides the fact that everybody around the area was 4-6 degrees cooler , 108 at Newark in 2011 not nearly as empressive as LGA at 107 in the 1966 before so called "global warming" came. Besides when is Newark not the hot spot? If we're taking about only the official NWS stations only from this June: June 3,4,5,6,7,10,11,13,15,16,17,18,19,25,29 A good amount of days not on this list were tied or came within 1-2 degrees of nearby stations, and unofficial stations and observers near Newark and other parts of NE NJ had similar temperatures on other occasions as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Wishcasting? Lol... You are the one saying 2 weeks into the summer its gonna be a hot summer when june just finished average and your not explaining why. Just because it's been hot last two weeks doesn't mean it's going to be hot the rest of the summer. Snow in late October didn't mean it was going to be a cold winter. What signals, models, analogs are you seeing that are showing the opposite of what I'm saying? Better yet, what Met is seeing what you are seeing? there certainly is not a model showing below normal, a bunch of wishcasters on this board think every trough is like May bringing upper 60s and low 70s as posters have mentioned recently. It will be less hot next week but pretty close to normal...then there are signals of heat returning in the long range. Its going to take temps around 80 the last two weeks of July for the month to go below normal. Are you willing to wager on that...I certainly will. June finished average...um I can tell you why..the first half was cooler and the second half was hot. Summer pattern had not set in yet or are you disagree we have seen a pattern chance since the end of May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 there certainly is not a model showing below normal, a bunch of wishcasters on this board think every trough is like May bringing upper 60s and low 70s as posters have mentioned recently. It will be less hot next week but pretty close to normal...then there are signals of heat returning in the long range. Its going to take temps around 80 the last two weeks of July for the month to go below normal. Are you willing to wager on that...I certainly will. June finished average...um I can tell you why..the first half was cooler and the second half was hot. Summer pattern had not set in yet or are you disagree we have seen a pattern chance since the end of May An 80 degree day in July is below normal you idiot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 An 80 degree day in July is below normal you idiot. well for one why are you calling me names.....secondly it will take two weeks of 80 degrees which I KNOW are below normal to get the overall temps BELOW normal...comprende? Lol we could get some 80 degree days here or there but you are kidding yourself if you think the last two weeks are going to be that way and you have NO basis or evidence to back that up. At least I have climo on my side. Keep wishcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 well for one why are you calling me names.....secondly it will take two weeks of 80 degrees which I KNOW are below normal to get the overall temps BELOW normal...comprende? Lol we could get some 80 degree days here or there but you are kidding yourself if you think the last two weeks are going to be that way and you have NO basis or evidence to back that up. At least I have climo on my side. Keep wishcasting Here's the problem, you mention models hinting at the temperatures being above normal in the long range and you then assume that this is a lock to happen. If the models showed the opposite you would be the first to rip the depictions to shreds saying it is BS because climo says so. Climo means squat, all climo is is averages and averages are skewed. It cannot be that when long range models say heat it is gospel but when it shows cooler or normal in the long range it is garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Here's the problem, you mention models hinting at the temperatures being above normal in the long range and you then assume that this is a lock to happen. If the models showed the opposite you would be the first to rip the depictions to shreds saying it is BS because climo says so. Climo means squat, all climo is is averages and averages are skewed. It cannot be that when long range models say heat it is gospel but when it shows cooler or normal in the long range it is garbage. when you have a heat ridge to the west like we have this year you have to look at analogs with the same set up...Most of them were very hot...It looks like the worst of the heat is yet to come... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 when you have a heat ridge to the west like we have this year you have to look at analogs with the same set up...Most of them were very hot...It looks like the worst of the heat is yet to come... I don't disagree. At least you are mentioning the setup and how similar setups have impacted our weather. This is more of the way to try and diagnose things and you and I have been around a long time on all these weather boards and have seen it all. The one thing that is constant for all these years and I am sure you'd agree, is long range model-huggers/ing. No rhyme or reason to anything people say other than saying the models show what I want so it will happen or the model doesn't show what I want so it won't happen. I am just suggesting people look deeper than that and people who refuse to do that, well why take anything they say seriously. Oh, the other thing that is a constant for all these years is your data reporting and memory, better than anyone I've encounterd in 11 years of weather message boarding, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 I don't disagree. At least you are mentioning the setup and how similar setups have impacted our weather. This is more of the way to try and diagnose things and you and I have been around a long time on all these weather boards and have seen it all. The one thing that is constant for all these years and I am sure you'd agree, is long range model-huggers/ing. No rhyme or reason to anything people say other than saying the models show what I want so it will happen or the model doesn't show what I want so it won't happen. I am just suggesting people look deeper than that and people who refuse to do that, well why take anything they say seriously. Oh, the other thing that is a constant for all these years is your data reporting and memory, better than anyone I've encounterd in 11 years of weather message boarding, lol. thanks dbc...We have been around since the weather channel board in 2000...I hardly look at models...I've seen some very good long range forecasts over the last 12 years but they also have be very bad at times...model huggers twist and turn with every run...I'd go nuts if i was one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 thanks dbc...We have been around since the weather channel board in 2000...I hardly look at models...I've seen some very good long range forecasts over the last 12 years but they also have be very bad at times...model huggers twist and turn with every run...I'd go nuts if i was one... Ah yes the Weather Channel Winter 2000 boards, oh the memories, lol. The models are not completely useless, lol, and they can be very good at times, but like you said for a person to jump on board everytime a run goes your way and then rip the same models to shreds when it goes against what you want in the long range could be the definition of insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 I don't disagree. At least you are mentioning the setup and how similar setups have impacted our weather. This is more of the way to try and diagnose things and you and I have been around a long time on all these weather boards and have seen it all. The one thing that is constant for all these years and I am sure you'd agree, is long range model-huggers/ing. No rhyme or reason to anything people say other than saying the models show what I want so it will happen or the model doesn't show what I want so it won't happen. I am just suggesting people look deeper than that and people who refuse to do that, well why take anything they say seriously. Oh, the other thing that is a constant for all these years is your data reporting and memory, better than anyone I've encounterd in 11 years of weather message boarding, lol. well this one poster is talking up cooler than normal..what is this based on, he does not even have model support. Thats why I am saying he is wishcasting. I am not saying its going to be super hot but there certainly is nothing to indicate we headed for a cold snap either. This poster is saying the month will end up normal. Even if we have normal temps the rest of the month, we still end up above normal so where is his cold snap coming from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 well this one poster is talking up cooler than normal..what is this based on, he does not even have model support. Thats why I am saying he is wishcasting. I am not saying its going to be super hot but there certainly is nothing to indicate we headed for a cold snap either. This poster is saying the month will end up normal. Even if we have normal temps the rest of the month, we still end up above normal so where is his cold snap coming from You really are delusional. After the warmth this weekend, we WILL be getting cooler. You must have some difficulty understanding this concept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 So hot outside. Just got back from the beach. The water was freezing cold but the sand was blistering hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 So hot outside. Just got back from the beach. The water was freezing cold but the sand was blistering hot. Water is really a little cold around here until early August, after then its perfect for swimming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 You really are delusional. After the warmth this weekend, we WILL be getting cooler. You must have some difficulty understanding this concept. hello...who said we were not...good lord its going to be mid to upper 80s next week which is normal...then the possibility of that atlantic ridge moving west.... delusional is insisting that somehow we are going to be in the 70s to 80 degrees the last two weeks I even saw one poster talk up the upper 60s/low 70s when there was a sign of a trough for next week...its like people do not know how to read maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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