OSUmetstud Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 I don't see how it serves the public any better to put out a bunch of deterministic forecasts so that the public and people on the board can talk about busting forecasting day in and day out. The forecast making a deterministic forecast for the future knows full well he/she does not have the skill to say 100% rain on day 5 or a 100% chance of severe thunderstorms on day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 right...but you just told me that is somehow ridiculous. Why is it ridiculous? How and why should a probability based forecast be judged as a singular event? If I forecast a 30% chance of rain and it rains is that a bust? If a forecast a 30% chance of rain and it doesn't rain, is that a bust? It makes no sense from a scientific viewpoint. The reason why the majority of forecasts and outlooks are probability based is because the science hasn't advanced far enough to make determinstic predictions, especially for things like convection and severe convection. What i think is ridiculous is this...its one thing to say there was not a bust, but, i think it is disingenuous to say something isn't a bust in the general terminology by relying on the technical reality that it is in fact impossible to have a mathematical bust. That is my point. It is impossible to call a bust based on a single event, which makes the thread itself ridiculous since there can never be a technical bust for a severe event. It is ridiculous to call one event a non-bust by introducing the concept that there can never actually be a bust for severe event. That is whats ridiculous. Discussing the severe reports is fine and totally legitimate IMO. But arguing against an event that tehcnically can never occur...whats the point? IT is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 There's only one way to know if the forecast busted: is Lonnie Quinn still doing the weather? Lol, he guaranteed damaging winds for the entire NYC area he used his career as a guarantee right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Lol, he guaranteed damaging winds for the entire NYC area he used his career as a guarantee right? see that was stupid...and that's why probabilistic forecasting is better than deterministic. He kinda looks like fool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 see that was stupid...and that's why probabilistic forecasting is better than deterministic. He kinda looks like fool. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 In all honesty, the graphic of storm reports and 25 mile radii suggested SPC might have been a tad too far East w/ the moderate risk, but didn't "bust" the forecast most places. NYC might be most populous, but it is still only one place. She is part of a group that is too cool for school, smarter than everyone else (in their minds, anyway), that enjoys trolling, even in other subforums, but her graphic was pretty illustrative. IMHO Aww thanks, Ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 I'm back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 were you this outraged last year when posters in SNE were telling the mets who actually surveyed the MA tornado damage last year that they were wrong as it was really an EF4 and not an EF3. One weenie actually said they did their own survey, as if to say the NWS didn't do it right. LOL. Can't think of anything more dis-respectful than telling people with actual met degrees and skill in surveying this type of damage who spent hours if not days putting together a report only to be told minutes after its posted that they are wrong. I was. And you know what? I called them out, and they got mad at me and I was bashed for it. The weenies here are incredibly disrespectful and are often out of line. (To me, that incident was worse than Isotherm's not-so-subtle snarkiness). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 If you want to say one actual severe thunderstorm warning was a bust, such as the one issued for this area, calling for 70 MPH winds, and hail, when in reality, there were 30-40 MPH winds and no hail, that's fine. I think SPC, in general, did a very nice job, EXCEPT for the tornado watch to our North. One thing regarding NWS and warnings, when you see a line like that, it is a really tough call. Yes, it looked to have weakened a bit, but it had a history of producing hail and wind damage, and even tornadoes, along its path. When you're dealing with such a populated area, it's probably better to overwarn than underwarn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 I was. And you know what? I called them out, and they got mad at me and I was bashed for it. The weenies here are incredibly disrespectful and are often out of line. (To me, that incident was worse than Isotherm's not-so-subtle snarkiness). Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 I was. And you know what? I called them out, and they got mad at me and I was bashed for it. The weenies here are incredibly disrespectful and are often out of line. (To me, that incident was worse than Isotherm's not-so-subtle snarkiness). <Didn't realize a 22 year old had the prerogative to determine what "disrespectful" and "out of line" constitute....save for during a summer camp counseling assignment> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 Why don't we just say that an incredible amount of potential wasn't realized for the vast majority of our sub forum region and call it a day? Factors came into play that ruined it for the NYC region. Oh well. Can we move on already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 <Didn't realize a 22 year old had the prerogative to determine what "disrespectful" and "out of line" constitute....save for during a summer camp counseling assignment> What does my age have to do with this and why are you making this personal? This isn't even about you. I don't need to be 50 to know that blatantly claiming a tornado rating done by professionals is wrong when you have ZERO professional experience rating tornadoes is disrespectful and out of line. This is their career and their expertise - would it not be out of line for a patient to simply tell a doctor his diagnosis is wrong because that patient just "knows better" than them? And for the record, despite your suggestion that I'm more suited for a summer camp, I've actually participated in a damage survey in Oklahoma so I've seen first hand both the immense hard work and tireless analysis that goes into it as well as the degree to which expertise is required. Quit it with the bull****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 What does my age have to do with this and why are you making this personal? This isn't even about you. I don't need to be 50 to know that blatantly claiming a tornado rating done by professionals is wrong when you have ZERO professional experience rating tornadoes is disrespectful and out of line. This is their career and their expertise - would it not be out of line for a patient to simply tell a doctor his diagnosis is wrong because that patient just "knows better" than them? William is a crochety old man, who reminds me a lot of my father... thinks he knows everything just because he's old. I'm 29 years old and teach high school, and I am open to learning things even from my students. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 <Didn't realize a 22 year old had the prerogative to determine what "disrespectful" and "out of line" constitute....save for during a summer camp counseling assignment> This is a surpring and unnecessarily condescending post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 The weenies here are incredibly disrespectful and are often out of line. This is what prompted my reply...the young man has recently obtained a degree in meteorology and suddenly he feels he has license to pronounce judgement on all those who do not have red tags...as there is widespread sentiment on this board that all non-mets fall under the category of "weenies". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 This is what prompted my reply...the young man has recently obtained a degree in meteorology and suddenly he feels he has license to pronounce judgement on all those who do not have red tags...as there is widespread sentiment on this board that all non-mets fall under the category of "weenies". As if old age gives you the same license. Time for a break, maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 This is what prompted my reply...the young man has recently obtained a degree in meteorology and suddenly he feels he has license to pronounce judgement on all those who do not have red tags...as there is widespread sentiment on this board that all non-mets fall under the category of "weenies". No, you're the one assuming people-without-met-tags = "weenies". When did I ever say that people without met tags are out of line and rude? Link? I said weenies are, and in my example listed, they were. Don S, earthlight etc don't have met tags and they're clearly some of the best posters on the board.Take your strawmen and butthurt elsewhere. It isn't wanted here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 This is what prompted my reply...the young man has recently obtained a degree in meteorology and suddenly he feels he has license to pronounce judgement on all those who do not have red tags...as there is widespread sentiment on this board that all non-mets fall under the category of "weenies". I'm not sure where you got this idea from. As I see it, there's two definitions of the term "weenie": One is a lighthearted term that encompasses anyone with a passion for weather, which would include pretty much all of us, mets and non-mets included; the other is a more derogatory term that includes any poster that just roots for the most extreme solution, or shows little knowledge about the nuances of weather, and no inclination to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 William is a crochety old man, who reminds me a lot of my father... thinks he knows everything just because he's old. I'm 29 years old and teach high school, and I am open to learning things even from my students. I met William at the NYC gtg, He was really nice. I guess some people are upset on this forum with other people. It's funny how people act tough online but are different in real life. I can name a few that are like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 Most people will say things online that they would never say in person to someone's face...good and bad I met William at the NYC gtg, He was really nice. I guess some people are upset on this forum with other people. It's funny how people act tough online but are different in real life. I can name a few that are like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 Most people will say things online that they would never say in person to someone's face...good and bad Internet bullies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 trying to find that JB weatherbell cartoon that was shown here a while ago in one of threads, it was awesome haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 Why don't we just say that an incredible amount of potential wasn't realized for the vast majority of our sub forum region and call it a day? Factors came into play that ruined it for the NYC region. Oh well. Can we move on already? You and I have been on the same page throughout all of this; my thoughts exactly. I think the horse has been beaten on this subject... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 trying to find that JB weatherbell cartoon that was shown here a while ago in one of threads, it was awesome haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 cape cod gets a nice tropical storm on the NAM tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 30, 2012 Author Share Posted July 30, 2012 cape cod gets a nice tropical storm on the NAM tomorrow Clips Boston as well. LOL at the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 30, 2012 Author Share Posted July 30, 2012 NAM comedy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 I can name a few that are like that. name em' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 The NAM is God-awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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