Sundog Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Convective Inhibition, basically its thunderstorm killers. Here is a good write up http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/306/ Thanks dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 getting ready for the bust posts and "I invested 3 days of my life tracking a storm that gave me .04" It's inevitable in a setup like this...unless every tree in a mile radius is snapped in 2, then it's a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Noreaster is a good poster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 getting ready for the bust posts and "I invested 3 days of my life tracking a storm that gave me .04" It's inevitable in a setup like this...unless every tree in a mile radius is snapped in 2, then it's a bust. Noreaster27 has a head start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Noreaster is a good poster who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 who cares Jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 18z RAP continues to pinpoint NYC for the best tstorms. Again, the same timeframe. Right around 1z or 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 18z RAP continues to pinpoint NYC for the best tstorms. Again, the same timeframe. Right around 1z or 8pm. Dude what's the RAP? Why are all these things coming out of nowhere all of a sudden? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 Dude what's the RAP? Why are all these things coming out of nowhere all of a sudden? New short term model on ncep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Dude what's the RAP? Why are all these things coming out of nowhere all of a sudden? Ive been using it this summer, has been the most accurate short term model IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 New short term model on ncep. Gun to your head: do you go with all the high resolution models or with the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Ive been using it this summer, has been the most accurate short term model IMHO I'm excited because we have one more model for the winter. How many hours does it go out to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 Gun to your head: do you go with all the high resolution models or with the Euro? Euro is out to lunch. Its completely on its own. The line has already formed in PA and is headed east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 I'm excited because we have one more model for the winter. How many hours does it go out to? 18 hours. It's essentially the replacement to the RUC, along with the HRRR. But I've noticed that the RAP is more stable then the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 18 hours. It's essentially the replacement to the RUC, along with the HRRR. But I've noticed that the RAP is more stable then the HRRR. Those two models would put up some BS snowfalls in winter. Hopefully that comes to an end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Gun to your head: do you go with all the high resolution models or with the Euro? current radar and obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 the euro shows no precip... ignore the line in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 current radar and obs Seriously I can't understand how the Euro can be that wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Seriously I can't understand how the Euro can be that wrong. it can't resolve the convection... hence my link on parameterization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Seriously I can't understand how the Euro can be that wrong. EURO has busted with every severe event this year, it had the mid-atlantic derecho hitting upstate NY and NNE the day before it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 18z Nam says nothing for tonght per ag3. Euro wins again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 18z Nam says nothing for tonght per ag3. Euro wins again. haha right. Bad situation with tornado headed towards Elmira, pretty populated area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 18z Nam says nothing for tonght per ag3. Euro wins again. Forget the models! It's nowcast time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 NAM nailed this one. Euro was awful as was the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 18z NAM with another shift south. NYC and south still prime according to the NAM. Trials and Brian5678953423 miss out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Ag3 meant for my house only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 haha right. Bad situation with tornado headed towards Elmira, pretty populated area 18z NAM has the current line in PA, producing these storms. It sinks south, breaks up a little but still creams NYC and south this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 18z NAM with another shift south. NYC and south still prime according to the NAM. Trials and Brian5678953423 miss out. could see that if the northern end doesnt develop much more, although it looks to be moving mostly east which would nail alot of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 Ag3 meant for my house only. Yeah. You and Brian567897894234 get nothing on NAM. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 if it does miss south what a difference from yesterday when VT was in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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