TheTrials Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 On 7/25/2012 at 7:00 PM, Sundog said: You need to stop doing that. It's just snow. I'm a warmanista now. Wasn't me probably Brian5675322355 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 euro has been off since last winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Hope the Euro is wrong on the rain as many could use more. But it wasn't too bad in terms of heat after the next two days. Liked that part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 15z Srefs will be the final nail in this coffin and then we can go back to tracking above normal temps because we haven't done that in a while. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 On 7/25/2012 at 7:19 PM, TheTrials said: 15z Srefs will be the final nail in this coffin and then we can go back to tracking above normal temps because we haven't done that in a while. Lol. what do they show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 On 7/25/2012 at 7:20 PM, psv88 said: what do they show They aren't out yet but they will follow the euro. The powers that be tweak them based on what the euro shows. Same thing with with the 18z GFS. it always matches the 12 euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 On 7/25/2012 at 7:20 PM, psv88 said: what do they show They arent out yet. But they will show either a big risk of storms and people will be allowed to post about them or they will show a northerly solution like the Euro and GFS did, and then you aren't encouraged to discuss it because models are useless for placement of heaviest precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 the models do not explicitly forecast convection; it's parameterized. the best we can do is forecast the threat. http://www.met.tamu.edu/class/metr452/models/2001/convection.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 UKIE is in the euro camp. Verbatim, even more north: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 On 7/25/2012 at 7:26 PM, forkyfork said: the models do not explicitly forecast convection; it's parameterized. the best we can do is forecast the threat. http://www.met.tamu....convection.html The models forecast MCS location and ULL locations, which are very important to tomorrow night's event. NAM as of this point is clearly the southern outlier, after viewing the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET. Not saying any model is correct at this point. Too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 It's over. Only the worst American model shows anything significant for us. Even the jma looks like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 On 7/25/2012 at 7:27 PM, ag3 said: UKIE is in the euro camp. Verbatim, even more north: that low position looks good, the heavy precip to the north is heavy rain and embeded convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 On 7/25/2012 at 7:29 PM, TheTrials said: It's over. Only the worst American model shows anything significant for us. Even the jma looks like the euro. don't read the NE forum--several mets have the threat over NNJ SE NY and Western CT stop model hugging...meteorology not modelology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 On 7/25/2012 at 7:32 PM, Brian5671 said: don't read the NE forum--several mets have the threat over NNJ SE NY and Western CT nobody understands what i'm saying re: convective parameterization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 On 7/25/2012 at 7:32 PM, Brian5671 said: don't read the NE forum--several mets have the threat over NNJ SE NY and Western CT Nope. Euro says so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Watch. We get nailed in the morning and its sunny all afternoon, dry all weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 On 7/25/2012 at 7:33 PM, forkyfork said: nobody understands what i'm saying re: convective parameterization awww, frocky is all hurtyz hurt because the euro took away his derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Wow, UKIE destroys Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 On 7/25/2012 at 7:46 PM, TheTrials said: awww, frocky is all hurtyz hurt because the euro took away his derecho this for you could be like what Boxing day was to DT....big call, then takes it down only to get hammered in the end. Enjoy your days and days of no power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 models don't "show" derecho events... they can't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 On 7/25/2012 at 7:55 PM, Brian5671 said: this for you could be like what Boxing day was to DT....big call, then takes it down only to get hammered in the end. Enjoy your days and days of no power. except DT was being serious and gets paid to make forecasts, lolz. Looks like the giants will need a new place for training camp is the ukie verifies. Albany may be flattened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 On 7/25/2012 at 7:58 PM, forkyfork said: models don't "show" derecho events... they can't how many years will it be since your last severe event, 15? that's some streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 As i have said earlier, anybody routing for a tornado outbreak in the NE has serious issues. If there were a true tornado outbreak in the NYC metro, after dark, there would be mass death and destruction. Tornados are cool in Nebraska where the only casualty is some barley. I hope, for the sake of peoples lives, that there are no twisters near population centers. But maybe thats just me employing logic and reason in a typically illogical setting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Just going by the precip maps, looks like NAM has shifted its axis to the NE a bit away from SE NY and more towards CT. Just a few more ticks and it matches the euro. LIke I said, euro is never wrong inside of 24 hours. Barely a shower for frocky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Bye bye tornado threat, LOL. Should be a beautiful day tomorrow, friday will probably bust too. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Works for me--who needs a tornado. Let the woods in the 'dacks have it. Awful call from 48 hrs out by Trials-just awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 On 7/24/2012 at 6:35 PM, TheTrials said: First call, second guess, last initial call for Tornado accumulation on Thursday: 1) Bmc10ville (Northern Jersey): 1-2 Tornados 2) BxEngine Plateu, including TornadoJay alley: 4-6 Tornados 2) Mt. Earthlight area, including Forky Township (NE Jersey): 2-4 Tornados 3) Borough of Allsnow (south of #2): 1-3 Tornados 4) Isothermtownship (South and West of #3): 3-5 Tornados 5) AG3 land, including the City of Sundog and PSV88 proper: 1 Tornado 6) TheTrials coast, including Brian5671 and LL: 0 Tornados, but three wet microbursts On 7/24/2012 at 6:45 PM, Brian5671 said: I I'll call bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 On 7/25/2012 at 8:25 PM, Brian5671 said: Works for me--who needs a tornado. Let the woods in the 'dacks have it. Awful call from 48 hrs out by Trials-just awful. Earthlight dooped me. He was balls to the walls. I will never make that mistake again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Waterbury and Meriden CT are the kill zone for this even. Euro will come south, nam will tick north, and bam, central CT will be demolished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 we might actually get a severe storm this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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