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Very Disturbing PRELIM DISC from HPC


Stormsfury

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i just saw that on the NOAA site not too long ago myself. :yikes: They should be up to the century mark within the next hour at that rate.

It would seem likly that they could gain at least another 10 degrees today...which might make this area the "hot spot". But really, what's the difference between 103 and 106. I think we should all go on a road trip to Florida to cool off.

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Rode through town...Bank thermometer said 92, I would take 2-3 degrees off that. It's probably 90 here along the escarpment.

Just the thinnest area of cirrus overhead, not sure how much that will affect things here.

Sorry if it sounds like I'm beating a dead horse but as long as Asheville Regional has a "north" wind, just can't see 98 happening.

ASHEVILLE PTSUNNY 79 57 46 N7

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Btw, the soil moisture where I'm at is not high at all. Other than getting lucky once or twice and getting a little rain, the ground is already dry here. Other than those 2 times or so, which was a while back, my surrounding area, especially me of course, just hasn't had much.

Current soil moisture anomalies.

curr.w.anom.daily.gif

Here are two soil moisture anomaly maps from Aug. 2007 for comparison purposes:

1) 8/3/07:

post-882-0-35196000-1340983552_thumb.gif

2) 8/21/07:

post-882-0-38622600-1340983579_thumb.gif

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Folks,

The heat continues to look quite ominous and historic per the models. Fri 6/29 Model update for 0Z/6Z for KATL:

1) 0Z Euro cooled slightly to +27.5 C at 850 as of 0Z 6/30 (i.e., later today). KATL record high 850 for any 0Z or 12Z since 1950 is only ~+24 C!

2) 0Z/6Z GFS: both have ~+26.5 C at 850 as of both 0Z 6/30 and 0Z 7/1. Per the 6Z GFS, there actually is a small +28 C bullseye over northern NC as of 0Z 6/30 and over the NC/SC/GA point as of 0Z 7/1!

3) Per MeteoStar for the 6Z GFS: KATL highs next five days (6/29-7/3): 103, 105, 106, 104, 100

***EDIT: I corrected the above referenced bullseye to +28 C from +30 C. Sorry about my typo.

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Folks,

The heat continues to look quite ominous and historic per the models. Fri 6/29 Model update for 0Z/6Z for KATL:

1) 0Z Euro cooled slightly to +27.5 C at 850 as of 0Z 6/30 (i.e., later today). KATL record high 850 for any 0Z or 12Z since 1950 is only ~+24 C!

2) 0Z/6Z GFS: both have ~+26.5 C at 850 as of both 0Z 6/30 and 0Z 7/1. Per the 6Z GFS, there actually is a small +28 C bullseye over northern NC as of 0Z 6/30 and over the NC/SC/GA point as of 0Z 7/1!

3) Per MeteoStar for the 6Z GFS: KATL highs next five days (6/29-7/3): 103, 105, 106, 104, 100

***EDIT: I corrected the above referenced bullseye to +28 C from +30 C. Sorry about my typo.

Hey Larry,

I was just curious about your thoughts on the ruc/rap showing those 30c 850mb temps and surface temps of 110 to 115 over a huge area?

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Lookout,

As of what hour (Z)?

I want to say around the 12z run, give or take an hour or two. Robert/foothillsnc has a pic of it in the hpc thread. That run had a 850mb temp here of 30.4 later on this evening/tonight. Plus atl had a 30 plus (30c or so temp also).

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I want to say around the 12z run, give or take an hour or two. Robert/foothillsnc has a pic of it in the hpc thread. That run had a 850mb temp here of 30.4 later on this evening/tonight. Plus atl had a 30 plus (30c or so temp also).

Lookout,

That can't be right. I can say with so much confidence that KATL will not be nearly as hot as +30 C at 850 at any time today, including at the peak of the day this evening, that I'll eat my shorts if I'm wrong.

Something must be badly off with it.

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