FoothillsNC Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Looking at your chart it shows tom. as 90° The chart on right? or the forecast temps? The record on right is 98. Anyway, new 12z GFS is staggering hot, and has a blast furnace aimed right at northeast Georgia and really aims the torch right for northeast GA and Upstate SC. Looking at all the features, its makes sense. Thats where the hottest air will be Friday afternoon, with 104 degrees many areas of upstate to around Gainesville and Athens. There's even +27 at 850 right over the region, so if downsloping is perfectly maximized, it may even be hotter. I'm not sure of the hottest 850s on record here, but this looks close to it. NAM is larger with its +27, but overall looks about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Lookout, I'm flattered you say this, but I prefer to not try to influence them. I prefer to see what they think independent of my statistical based methodology. It is fun to have differences as it makes for good robust discussion. If we all agreed on everything, it would be kind of boring. Meanwhile, the 0Z and 6Z GFS are sticking with ~+25.5 C for tomorow at 8 PM at KATL (0Z of 6/30). The Euro is still at ~+28 C. The 6Z GFS has it even warmer...~+26 C as of 0Z of 7/1. History is looking to be made, folks. Edit: The 12Z GFS is actually slightly warmer at 850 at KATL with ~+26 C vs. ~+25.5 C on the 6Z GFS. Wow! I'm not saying you should try to influence them, just provide the data you worked so hard on...which might improve their forecasts. That's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Jonathan Blaes of the RAH NWS-WFO posted an excellent overview of the upcoming air mass, putting it into historical perspective, at the link below. http://cimmse.wordpress.com/2012/06/28/unheard-of-greensboro-850-hpa-temperatures-predicted/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Just want to quickly chime in again with what's going on upstream. The 12z RAOB out of Lincoln, IL had an 850 mb temp of a whopping 30.8C. Had never seen 30C on a sounding east of the MS River until today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Just want to quickly chime in again with what's going on upstream. The 12z RAOB out of Lincoln, IL had an 850 mb temp of a whopping 30.8C. Had never seen 30C on a sounding east of the MS River until today. thanks for that, I was wondering how the 850's are going to play out on this. Turns out ECMWF might not be too far off at all with it's +30 widespread from southern Ill, Ky, TN, and western NC, north GA a couple days ago. Today's GFS has +28 just south of Asheville, and +27 and +26 very widespread from Atlanta north and east to near Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Raleigh upped me to 101 tomorrow, 104 Sat. and 103 Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I'm loving the low dewpoints. It's 98 degrees but feels very comfortable. I'll take a desert heat over tropical heat any day ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I remember the August 2007 heat wave well, with the very dry, hot winds from the northwest. This looks similar, although the 5H ridge isn't as strong, the 850's are going to be warmer. Again, the lee of Ga, SC, NC will mix dewpoints down into upper 50's by Friday afternoon, whereas further east the dewpoints will be higher, so higher heat indices there. Overall, actual temps will probably be max around northeast Ga very near Athens to GSP to Gastonia NC., the area that feels the effects of strong downsloping, compressional heating and drying and least humidity. And here's the +30 in Illinois Hoosier mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Here is link for a Asheville Citizen-Times art. on the upcoming heat wave. http://www.citizen-times.com/article/20120628/NEWS/306280020/Get-ready-summer-sizzler?odyssey=tab%7Ctopnews%7Ctext%7CFrontpage&nclick_check=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I'm loving the low dewpoints. It's 98 degrees but feels very comfortable. I'll take a desert heat over tropical heat any day ! To a point yes. Back in July 76 I jumped out of an air conditioned car into a parking lot in Needles, CA. The temp was a dry 114. It almost brought me to my knees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 From the Hi-Res NMM - more views of downslope winds off the Apps and high 850mb temperatures...this is for Sat morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Well...just skimmed through the Greer forecast discussion...they're officially going with a forecast high of 104 tomorrow for both Charlotte and GSP along with a high of 98 in Asheville. I'm still a little skeptical of that forecast for Asheville if for no other reason the temp has never got that high in my lifetime. But again...if it does reach 98 I can only imagine what it will be just east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Well...just skimmed through the Greer forecast discussion...they're officially going with a forecast high of 104 tomorrow for both Charlotte and GSP along with a high of 98 in Asheville. I'm still a little skeptical of that forecast for Asheville if for no other reason the temp has never got that high in my lifetime. But again...if it does reach 98 I can only imagine what it will be just east of the mountains. Hard to believe but Asheville is 91 right now, which is 2 degrees warmer than me..very unusual to see that. The heat is surging in from the west. And the best AVL did in the August 2007 heat wave was 94, so if this one surpasses that one, that would be something. I don't know, since these 850's are going to blow the 2007 event out of the water( actually it's the highest 850's I can ever find for northeast GA, SC and southwest NC)..but back then the ground was powder, with 2007 being the driest year on record all around this region...so it could be a tradeoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Well...just skimmed through the Greer forecast discussion...they're officially going with a forecast high of 104 tomorrow for both Charlotte and GSP along with a high of 98 in Asheville. I'm still a little skeptical of that forecast for Asheville if for no other reason the temp has never got that high in my lifetime. But again...if it does reach 98 I can only imagine what it will be just east of the mountains. We are up to 91 today already. I see 98 tomorrow AND Saturday being no problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 FWIW, I got 93 on the thermometer here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 From Raleigh regarding next week... MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONG ANTI-CYCLONE REMAINING OVER EASTERN GA-SC MONDAY THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADING TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GFS MORE ADAMANT ABOUT BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE THOUGH THIS MODEL HAS A TENDENCY TO BREAKDOWN ESTABLISHED STRONG RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TOO QUICKLY. STILL....00Z ECMWF ALSO SUGGEST A LOWERING OF THE UPPER HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION TUE-THU. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MAX TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S AND A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. This is a 12z Euro/GFS comparison for late next week into next weekend (Days 7-10). Euro keeps the ridge and positive anomalies a bit stronger in the east. This is my concern, that the sprawling upper ridge won't break down / retrograde west as fast as some of the modeling is suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 An ominous sign is that KATL has already hit 97 for a high today as of 3 PM, which is already 1 F warmer than the 12Z GFS had predicted for a high per MeteoStar. That same model run has KATL up to the following over the next four days: 102, 105, 104, and 102 with 850's getting to as hot as +26.5 C. The curent 850 is ~+22 C, which is ~8.1 F cooler than the projected hottest 850. The hottest on record for KATL is 105 and the hottest 850 since 1950 (at either 0Z or 12Z) is ~+24 C. As we get closer and closer to the heart of the event and as the modeled 850's fail to fall, the chances for reaching or even exceeding the alltime 105 record high increase. Upstream 850's are also ominous. Edit: Another ominous sign is that today's (6/28) 12Z Euro still has KATL at an incredible +28 C at 850 as of 0Z on 6/30. This is only 1 C off the +29 Euro highest that was modeled a couple of days back. I had predicted that the Euro would have cooled down to +27 C by this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Hawkins Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 104 at the airport in Muscle Shoals, Al. Yeah, its hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 An ominous sign is that KATL has already hit 97 for a high today as of 3 PM, which is already 1 F warmer than the 12Z GFS had predicted for a high per MeteoStar. That same model run has KATL up to the following over the next four days: 102, 105, 104, and 102 with 850's getting to as hot as +26.5 C. The curent 850 is ~+22 C, which is ~8.1 F cooler than the projected hottest 850. The hottest on record for KATL is 105 and the hottest 850 since 1950 (at either 0Z or 12Z) is ~+24 C. As we get closer and closer to the heart of the event and as the modeled 850's fail to fall, the chances for reaching or even exceeding the alltime 105 record high increase. Upstream 850's are also ominous. Glad you posted that too, this will help backup what I found just a tick further northwest. For Nashville TN in fact. The all-time record high in June for Nashville is 106 and the reanalysis of the 850mb temperatures are dramatically cooler than currently upstream in the OV. Reanalysis of June 30th, 1952 when Nashville TN reached 106 degrees (series from 6-30-52 0z to series to 7-1-52 0z) In every single case of all time high records being broken, this current 850mb temperature anomaly and subsequent heat wave is running at LEAST 2 degrees and higher above every single all-time high temperature result than the subsequent reanalyses that I have so far outlined in this thread. Just the simple fact that temperatures are running higher than at the very least the coolest guidance is indeed troubling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 An ominous sign is that KATL has already hit 97 for a high today as of 3 PM, which is already 1 F warmer than the 12Z GFS had predicted for a high per MeteoStar. That same model run has KATL up to the following over the next four days: 102, 105, 104, and 102 with 850's getting to as hot as +26.5 C. The curent 850 is ~+22 C, which is ~8.1 F cooler than the projected hottest 850. The hottest on record for KATL is 105 and the hottest 850 since 1950 (at either 0Z or 12Z) is ~+24 C. As we get closer and closer to the heart of the event and as the modeled 850's fail to fall, the chances for reaching or even exceeding the alltime 105 record high increase. Upstream 850's are also ominous. Edit: Another ominous sign is that today's (6/28) 12Z Euro still has KATL at an incredible +28 C at 850 as of 0Z on 6/30. This is only 1 C off the +29 Euro highest that was modeled a couple of days back. I had predicted that the Euro would have cooled down to +27 C by this run. Another ominous sign: surface temps upstream. Knoxville, TN hit 100 today! And plenty of 102-106 degree readings as of 4pm in the source region (KY, IL, and IN). All headed this way on NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Glad you posted that too, this will help backup what I found just a tick further northwest. For Nashville TN in fact. The all-time record high in June for Nashville is 106 and the reanalysis of the 850mb temperatures are dramatically cooler than currently upstream in the OV. Reanalysis of June 30th, 1952 when Nashville TN reached 106 degrees (series from 6-30-52 0z to series to 7-1-52 0z) In every single case of all time high records being broken, this current 850mb temperature anomaly and subsequent heat wave is running at LEAST 2 degrees and higher above every single all-time high temperature result than the subsequent reanalyses that I have so far outlined in this thread. Just the simple fact that temperatures are running higher than at the very least the coolest guidance is indeed troubling. Nashville, TN is currently 103. And it's just day 1 of the heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Nashville, TN is currently 103. And it's just day 1 of the heat wave. And a heat index of 99 with a 15% humidity, just unreal. I'm almost willing to bet these kinds of conditions haven't been observed since the 1930's just without the huge clouds of dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 18z NAM 2 M temperature forecast for Hour 27, or roughly 4 pm EDT (21 UTC). The wide escarpment of very light pink in much of SC, along with portions of GA and NC in this time frame represent temperatures from 105-110! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Here are some of the worst maps I can find from the 12z runs... Euro 850mb temps Friday aftn...large area in +28 to +30C contour (purple) UKMet 850mb temps Saturday evening....again, large area of +28C temperatures (peach color) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 18z NAM Hour 51 Saturday roughly 4 pm EDT (21 UTC), even worse of course. even a blip of 110 showing in East Central GA just SW of Augusta GA showing. wide expanse of 25C 850mb temperatures across the SE, including some pockets of 27.5C. 925mb temperatures even exceed 35C in those same pockets with a wide expanse of 32C 925mb temperatures. it appears shear heat index values won't be the biggest story regarding this punch, but what it'll truly be like to live in a Desert Southeast with exceptional low RH values, and exceptionally high temperatures. Even just skimming down any warm bias, the numbers are truly astonishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 18z NAM Hour 51 Saturday roughly 4 pm EDT (21 UTC), even worse of course. even a blip of 110 showing in East Central GA just SW of Augusta GA showing. wide expanse of 25C 850mb temperatures across the SE, including some pockets of 27.5C. 925mb temperatures even exceed 35C in those same pockets with a wide expanse of 32C 925mb temperatures. it appears shear heat index values won't be the biggest story regarding this punch, but what it'll truly be like to live in a Desert Southeast with exceptional low RH values, and exceptionally high temperatures. Even just skimming down any warm bias, the numbers are truly astonishing. So, no snow then I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 The chart on right? or the forecast temps? The record on right is 98. Anyway, new 12z GFS is staggering hot, and has a blast furnace aimed right at northeast Georgia and really aims the torch right for northeast GA and Upstate SC. Looking at all the features, its makes sense. Thats where the hottest air will be Friday afternoon, with 104 degrees many areas of upstate to around Gainesville and Athens. There's even +27 at 850 right over the region, so if downsloping is perfectly maximized, it may even be hotter. I'm not sure of the hottest 850s on record here, but this looks close to it. NAM is larger with its +27, but overall looks about the same. UGH lol - actually if its going to be hot anyway, might as well go that few extra degrees and break a record. been trying to follow while working and this confirms what i thought i was seeing - the furnace opened wide right at NE GA and the upstate. if there is any downsloping like in the winter that zaps our snow showers (yeah sorry i had to bring that in in the summer, but couldnt resist) we mostly likely will go up those few extra degrees and pass 100. the nws forecast of 102 for mby looks right on target (fortunately or unfortunately depending on one's point of view i guess) Hard to believe but Asheville is 91 right now, which is 2 degrees warmer than me..very unusual to see that. The heat is surging in from the west. And the best AVL did in the August 2007 heat wave was 94, so if this one surpasses that one, that would be something. I don't know, since these 850's are going to blow the 2007 event out of the water( actually it's the highest 850's I can ever find for northeast GA, SC and southwest NC)..but back then the ground was powder, with 2007 being the driest year on record all around this region...so it could be a tradeoff. when i logged on a bit ago and saw moto's post in the other thread and i checked my temp i was shocked. usually we are a few degrees cooler (but still really hot lol) while a bit lower elevation areas are in the mid 90s. today both dahlonega and ne ga are at very high temps (mid 90s are fairly rare over all imby. high heat indexes are another matter). i couldnt believe the 95* reading here. great discussion, and looking more and more like this could be a pretty extreme heat wave (for the high temps, not necessarily long duration) for a lot of us, including places in mid and ne ga into the western carolinas, that, to my best recollection, dont normally hit or exceed the 100* mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 98 at PDK airport, so as of now it certainly seems like things are going as the models show. Pretty concerning considering what the maps above me are displaying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I don't think I've ever seen my forecast here show four consecutive days at 102 or above. Not until Tuesday does the temp plummet to 99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Yikes! the 5:00 pm obs from KAVL is 92°! My weather station is 100.5° but it is sun aided with no aspiration. Here is a obs link for airports from GSP. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/observe/airport.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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