jburns Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 From Raleigh aftn update... EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE COMMENCES THIS PERIOD AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN TN VALLEY DRIFTS ESE TO A POSITION OVER GA BY SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AVERAGING AROUND 1460M...ABOUT 40M ABOVE NORMAL...YIELDING MAX TEMPS AS MUCH AS 11-14 F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. REVIEW OF WARM SEASON ANALOGS SUGGEST THAT CURRENT MODEL 850MB TEMP FORECAST (24-28 DEG C) MAY BE WAY TOO WARM...PRODUCING THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. THUS HAVE EDGE MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ENDED UP WITH MAX TEMPS FRIDAY 97-100 DEGS F...AND 98-102 ON SATURDAY. I can never help but wonder if changes like this have more to do with the models or the shift change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I also believe that Columbia's 107º also occurred many times in July 1986 including this date but I cannot find the information at the moment. Columbia (CAE) 100+ temps in July 1986: July 8 - 102 July 9 - 102 July 10 - 102 July 11 - 100 July 12 - 100 July 13 - 102 July 17 - 100 July 18 - 105 July 19 - 105 July 20 - 102 July 21 - 104 July 29 - 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I can never help but wonder if changes like this have more to do with the models or the shift change. Shift change. The models have been very consistent. If you look at stormfury's graphics, all our "hot" days have occurred with a NW flow and a high situated over or near GA. This case looks pretty similar. See no reason to cool any max temps at this time. If anything, they may end up being too cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Since I've gotten into this mode, I'm pulling up some reanalysis maps from some of the hottest temperatures I've found (as in all time records, trying to stick with June, but will include some selected high temperature records for varying locations, if I can find specific dates for areas). The August 21, 1983 map will also coincide with the all time North Carolina record temperature set with 110º at Fayetteville NC on that same day Asheville hit 100º. The day before it appears Georgia's all time state record was hit at Greenville, GA with 112º on August 20th, 1983 (and the map was nowhere near as impressive as the 8/21/83 reanalysis regarding 850mb temperatures and the highest 850mb temperature sat in SW VA). I want to start with June 28th, 1954, in which Camden SC set (or tied) the all time hottest temperature record with 111º. Downslope maximized with compressional heating from a backdoor feature (as apparent with the upper low in the far NE US). 850mb temperatures well below the forecast 850mb for the upcoming weekend. Columbia's 107º June record occurred on 6/27/1954, a feat that has been tied several times, the most recent being in August of 2007 Camden's 111º on June 28th, 1954. (Thank Goodness for the Auto Save Feature!) Charleston, SC had dual 104º readings (at that time was the all time record for KCHS, which would be broken on August 1st, 1999 at 105º). I used July 1986 for KCHS because of the impressive string of 100º days that occurred in that month, which I believe was 11 or 13 times that month, a feat that hasn't even come close since for KCHS. July 21st, 1986 (00z) extreme heat Southeast, including the previous all-time record high for Charleston, SC. I also believe that Columbia's 107º also occurred many times in July 1986 including this date but I cannot find the information at the moment. Just for comparison, this is last year June 20-21, 2011 when the Charleston area reached 102º two days in a row. I can't right off hand think of any other days to look at and need to get some other things done at this time. All the forecasted 850mb temperatures are pretty much well over what we're seeing now but it boils down to favorable wind trajectories both surface and aloft to maximize full thickness potentials (also of course boils down to convective potential as well putting a hamper in some spots) Stormsfury, Excellent stuff as usual! Thanks for posting those maps. Regarding the first two maps in case you didn't check them, I would expect hotter 850's at 0Z either prior to those posted 12Z maps or following those maps being that I've found 0Z 850 (either the one prior to or the one following the 12Z) to be warmer than 12Z 850 the vast majority of the time. Also, I'm still expecting the Euro to cool back at least ~2C over the next two days and for the GFS to quite possibly cool ~1C. Nevertheless, I still expect the actual 850's to verify at least about as hot as those events you mentioned and make some history! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Columbia (CAE) 100+ temps in July 1986: July 8 - 102 July 9 - 102 July 10 - 102 July 11 - 100 July 12 - 100 July 13 - 102 July 17 - 100 July 18 - 105 July 19 - 105 July 20 - 102 July 21 - 104 July 29 - 100 That's amazing 107 was not reached in 1986 in KCAE. Thanks for the information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Stormsfury, Excellent stuff as usual! Thanks for posting those maps. Regarding the first two maps in case you didn't check them, I would expect hotter 850's at 0Z either prior to those posted 12Z maps or following those maps being that I've found 0Z 850 (either the one prior to or the one following the 12Z) to be warmer than 12Z 850 the vast majority of the time. Also, I'm still expecting the Euro to cool back at least ~2C over the next two days and for the GFS to quite possibly cool ~1C. Nevertheless, I still expect the actual 850's to verify at least about as hot as those events you mentioned and make some history! Thanks Larry. The 0z Aug 21st 1983 was 24.2 at the 850mb level, a bullseye right over Chattanooga, TN completely closed off 500mb high. I've been reviewing some of the major guidance 850mb temperatures and they're mind-boggling, only the GFS seems "reasonable" in regards to past events, with both the NAM/ECMWF borderline apocalyptic heat wave in stature which got me dreading if my a/c can handle it. 12z NAM 2m temp plots at 78 hours was absolutely gross. The GFS obviously a bit lower in its 2m output in the same timeframe http://raleighwx.ame...axint_NC078.gif http://raleighwx.ame...axint_NC078.gif Last year was a complete nightmare in itself. I agree with you that closer to the event should see some "cooling" of the 850mb prognoses but given where the players are expected to reside makes this a potential that clearly can't be denied. Speaking of that, KILM has already issued excessive heat watches for their CWA in preparations for the upcoming heat wave. 15z SREF 850mb temperatures very comparable to the Aug 21st 1983 heat wave. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/sref/15zsref850mbTSLPUS081.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 CAE doesn't seem to impressed .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- THE FIRST REAL SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE OF THE EARLY SUMMER SEASON WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS INDICATING STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH THE CENTER ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE COMBINATION WILL SET THE STAGE FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD EVEN REACH NEAR 105 DEGREES. MODEL BLENDS/ENSEMBLES GIVING CONSISTENT TEMPS ABOVE 100...SO SEE NO REAL NEED TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH THIS PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH DO FEEL THAT GUIDANCE MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO HIGH BASED ON RECENT RAINFALL/SOIL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE/CLIMATE TRENDS. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE MAXED OUT NEAR 103 DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A GOOD GOOD CHANCE WE WILL APPROACH SOME OF OUR RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE STILL IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF THE CONTINUED HEAT AND INCREASED HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ALONG WITH A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION MAY BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS FOR AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE THE HEAT INDEX VALUES...APPARENT TEMPERATURE...INTO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE. THE CRITERIA FOR A HEAT ADVISORY IS 110 DEGREES. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE EACH AFTERNOON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS. AFTER THE START OF NEXT WEEK....TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Im at the beach and im just now seeing this. Wow I'm coming back Friday. Couldnt have picked a worse time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I know the heat sucks but it is kind if nice to have a summer weather thread that is about to reach 100 posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I know the heat sucks but it is kind if nice to have a summer weather thread that is about to reach 100 posts. I'm rooting for records to fall, because at least that keeps things interesting. I enjoy unusual events like these that get some technical discussion from the mets and knowledgable posters, since we all learn more about the processes driving the weather. And FFC's new call of 100 Sat/Sunday seems pretty reasonable. Personally I bet the city gets up to 102, looking at how things are coming together perfectly for an extreme heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I'm rooting for records to fall, because at least that keeps things interesting. I enjoy unusual events like these that get some technical discussion from the mets and knowledgable posters, since we all learn more about the processes driving the weather. And FFC's new call of 100 Sat/Sunday seems pretty reasonable. Personally I bet the city gets up to 102, looking at how things are coming together perfectly for an extreme heat wave. I know the heat sucks but it is kind if nice to have a summer weather thread that is about to reach 100 posts. This is how I feel also. I am really liking the discussion going on in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Ed Piotrowski of WPDE has these temperatures for Sat and Sun: https://twitter.com/EdPiotrowski/status/218122692929392640/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 The 18Z GFS for KATL Surface Temp Friday 101 Saturday 103 Sunday 105 Monday 107 Tuesday 97 Wednesday 98 Thursday 97 Friday 98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 LOL at the NAM MOS for GSP on Saturday...109. NAM MOS (MET) KGSP NAM MOS GUIDANCE 6/28/2012 0000 UTC DT /JUNE 28 /JUNE 29 /JUNE 30 / HR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00 X/N 95 70 104 72 109 TMP 69 67 69 84 92 94 89 81 76 73 76 93100103 97 86 78 74 78106 98 DPT 57 58 60 58 55 54 59 61 60 60 62 61 57 57 62 65 64 63 65 59 62 CLD CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL WDR 25 23 23 24 24 23 22 23 26 25 27 28 27 22 24 24 26 30 27 30 26 WSP 01 02 01 07 08 09 06 03 03 02 04 06 07 07 05 04 04 03 03 08 06 P06 3 2 4 3 5 3 4 0 2 2 3 P12 5 5 4 3 3 Q06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q12 0 0 0 0 0 T06 1/ 0 2/ 2 20/ 7 14/ 4 3/ 1 7/ 8 36/26 23/ 9 10/ 5 41/24 T12 4/ 2 25/ 7 10/ 9 45/26 18/10 CIG 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N 103 for ATL on Saturday.. NAM MOS (MET) KATL NAM MOS GUIDANCE 6/28/2012 0000 UTC DT /JUNE 28 /JUNE 29 /JUNE 30 / HR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00 X/N 95 75 101 79 103 TMP 75 71 72 85 92 94 91 85 80 77 78 91 98100 97 90 85 81 82100 97 DPT 56 57 59 61 59 58 59 62 63 64 65 66 63 61 62 65 66 66 68 66 65 CLD CL CL CL CL CL FW CL CL CL CL CL CL FW FW FW CL CL CL CL CL FW WDR 20 25 25 28 28 26 26 26 27 27 28 32 33 30 28 27 27 28 29 31 30 WSP 03 02 02 05 07 07 07 05 05 04 06 09 06 05 06 05 05 05 07 06 08 P06 3 2 4 3 5 3 4 2 3 4 5 P12 5 5 4 5 5 Q06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q12 0 0 0 0 0 T06 1/ 0 6/ 2 22/ 7 24/ 5 7/ 1 12/ 7 37/16 23/ 6 16/ 5 39/15 T12 6/ 2 25/ 8 17/ 7 46/16 25/ 9 CIG 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N I feel pretty confident that I'll see my first 90+ of the year IMBY. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 00Z NAM for KATL- 42C (107.6F) 2M temp Saturday at 21Z, 850mb 27.9C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 18z NAM has temps of 110 at KCUB this weekend...0z backed down to 107, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 0Z GFS cooler than all other guidance, but this is due to its error of having the dew points too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Fishel is calling for some storms on Friday afternoon to squelch the heat in the evening. That would sure be nice to see before the heat really gets cranking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 One good thing about this hot spell, it will likely not last too long. Both the Euro and GFS show the upper ridge shrinking and retrograding a bit next week with both models having a pretty good chance of rain across the SE and much milder temps. Here's hoping that is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 All-time record high for KATL in June is 101 which I think will be broken. The All-time record high is 105 for KATL. That's more of a stretch but within reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Thanks, Lookout. Yes, I had to look at every hot day...old 850 mb level maps going back to 1950. By the way, the 12Z gfs looks barely cooler for KATL at 850 but similar to the 6Z gfs with ~+25 C for the hottest. Sorry for the late response Larry. I figured as much knowing you lol That is a lot of time and work to find that type of info out. I know you have always been fascinated with statistics/climo but you should put all of your work together and make a site and even pass it along to the nws, because I wonder if they even know the stuff you know about this kind of thing. And if they know about it, maybe it could help improve their forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 One good thing about this hot spell, it will likely not last too long. Both the Euro and GFS show the upper ridge shrinking and retrograding a bit next week with both models having a pretty good chance of rain across the SE and much milder temps. Here's hoping that is correct. I don't know if I'd say it's not too long..with the exception of today, where FFC is forecasting a high of 99 here (which likely means 100 since they are usually 1 to 3 degrees to cool at my local), they don't show temps dropping below 100 until Tuesday and even then it's 99 (again likely 100 here). Likewise, GSP, with the exception of today, being 100 through Tuesday and 99 next Wed. Not to mention the likely hood of extreme heat, temps above 105, for a few of those days. That's potentially 7 days straight at or above 100 here which is a decently long stretch of 100 degree temps from where I sit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 GSP's thoughts on the heat from the overnight afd: .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 210 AM THURSDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM IS OF COURSE THE HEAT...AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE MISS VALLEY/GREAT PLAINS. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE FIRST DAY OF 100 DEGREE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT. A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE PAINTS 102-104 VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS ON FRIDAY...WHICH CERTAINLY GIVES ONE PAUSE. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS DISPLAYED A WARM BIAS IN RECENT WEEKS...AND SINCE THIS WILL BE THE FIRST REAL DAY OF THE HEAT WAVE...I/M STILL NOT SOLD ON THE IDEA THAT GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. WE WILL FEATURE MAXES OF 99-102 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MID 90S EXPECTED IN THE MAJOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL GA/THE SC MIDLANDS SATURDAY...TEMPS SHOULD WARM EVEN FURTHER. MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR SATURDAY ARE DOWNRIGHT SCARY...WITH A MAX OF 109 FORECAST AT GSP. CONSIDERING THIS WOULD BE THE HIGHEST TEMP EVER AT GSP (BY 4 DEGREES)...AND IS MORE THAN 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...MET GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ROUNDLY REJECTED. NEVERTHELESS... THIS DOES SAY SOMETHING ABOUT THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS NATURE OF THE AIR MASS THAT IS ON ITS WAY. WE HAVE OPTED FOR A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS OF 100-103 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS...WITH MID 90S AGAIN IN THE MAJOR MTN VALLEYS. THE SILVER LINING IS THAT IT APPEARS DEEP MIXING AND W/NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN VERY SLOW DEWPOINT RECOVERY AND/OR DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO RH SHOULD NOT ADD MUCH TO HEAT INDEX VALUES. NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON HOW GUIDANCE PERFORMS TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW...AS THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE TEMP FORECAST THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HEAT ADVISORY/WARNING PRODUCTS BECOME NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE UNSTABLE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LFC/S ARE EXTREMELY HIGH...MORE THAN 10 KFT AGL. ITS JUST VERY UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT RIDGE TOP CONVERGENCE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO LIFT PARCELS TO THIS LEVEL...SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN FREE OF POPS OTHER THAN A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MTNS SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR REMNANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA IN THE NW FLOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THIS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR AREAS TO OUR EAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE VERY HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS MORE OR LESS PARKED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE SC MIDLANDS. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN REACH/EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK IN MOST FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT LOCATIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. POPS WILL REMAIN LOW IN THE RELATIVELY DRY BL/SUPPRESSED ATMOSPHERE REGIME...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR REMNANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. BY ABOUT TUESDAY...THE RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF RETROGRADING...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK VORTS/POSSIBLY MCV/S PASSING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA. THIS WILL GIVE THE FLOW A BIT MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR NW FLOW CONVECTION...WHILE ALSO ALLOWING MID-LEVEL TEMPS TO COOL A BIT...SO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE WHILE TEMPS GRADUALLY COOL TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 A look at 6z GFS for tomorrow. On the right is some individual cities records on that day. I think part of SC, NC and VA piedmont could break the records. Places in the Upstate and west NC foothills esp. I doubt Athens breaks their 107 though. This is a classic case of GFS seeing strong downsloping plus the heat dome is centered directly over the southern Apps...it really hasn't changed at all on this. Also, dewpoints mix out nicely into the 50's in the lee of the Southern Apps....that happens every time in a setup like this, so atleast the humidity won't be a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 A look at 6z GFS for tomorrow. On the right is some individual cities records on that day. I think part of SC, NC and VA piedmont could break the records. Places in the Upstate and west NC foothills esp. I doubt Athens breaks their 107 though. This is a classic case of GFS seeing strong downsloping plus the heat dome is centered directly over the southern Apps...it really hasn't changed at all on this. Also, dewpoints mix out nicely into the 50's in the lee of the Southern Apps....that happens every time in a setup like this, so atleast the humidity won't be a factor. Robert, looks like a pretty safe bet that Asheville will break the daily record tom. by several degrees! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Robert, looks like a pretty safe bet that Asheville will break the daily record tom. by several degrees! I think it comes very close. When AVL gets 98 , I know we're in trouble down here. I don't know how wet the ground is there, but any local areas (esp. near the airport where it will measure officially) will mean the first day or two of the heat wave , the heat energy goes mostly into turning the ground moisture into transpiration and low level humidity, instead of high temps. Of course, that's local effects and depends on soil conditions. That actually kept me and this whole county last year from hitting 100, but it did hit 100 to the north, east west and south. Strange but true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Robert, looks like a pretty safe bet that Asheville will break the daily record tom. by several degrees! I say we tie the record of 98. Definitely break it on Saturday though (it's only 95 then). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Sorry for the late response Larry. I figured as much knowing you lol That is a lot of time and work to find that type of info out. I know you have always been fascinated with statistics/climo but you should put all of your work together and make a site and even pass it along to the nws, because I wonder if they even know the stuff you know about this kind of thing. And if they know about it, maybe it could help improve their forecasts. Lookout, I'm flattered you say this, but I prefer to not try to influence them. I prefer to see what they think independent of my statistical based methodology. It is fun to have differences as it makes for good robust discussion. If we all agreed on everything, it would be kind of boring. Meanwhile, the 0Z and 6Z GFS are sticking with ~+25.5 C for tomorow at 8 PM at KATL (0Z of 6/30). The Euro is still at ~+28 C. The 6Z GFS has it even warmer...~+26 C as of 0Z of 7/1. History is looking to be made, folks. Edit: The 12Z GFS is actually slightly warmer at 850 at KATL with ~+26 C vs. ~+25.5 C on the 6Z GFS for 0Z on 6/30. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Hi Guys, I would defiantly be concerned about an extreme and prolonged heat wave across the Southeast. The worst will probably be this weekend and early next week, but The GFS has +3-5 sigma 850 hPa temperature anomalies for the better part of the next week across the South. This type of outbreak will rival that of the August 2007 heatwave across the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 A look at 6z GFS for tomorrow. On the right is some individual cities records on that day. I think part of SC, NC and VA piedmont could break the records. Places in the Upstate and west NC foothills esp. I doubt Athens breaks their 107 though. This is a classic case of GFS seeing strong downsloping plus the heat dome is centered directly over the southern Apps...it really hasn't changed at all on this. Also, dewpoints mix out nicely into the 50's in the lee of the Southern Apps....that happens every time in a setup like this, so atleast the humidity won't be a factor. Looking at your chart it shows tom. as 90° Sorry Robert, just got home & I see it is 98° @ work on our fine monitors it showed as 90° again sorry for the confusion! Hi Guys, I would defiantly be concerned about an extreme and prolonged heat wave across the Southeast. The worst will probably be this weekend and early next week, but The GFS has +3-5 sigma 850 hPa temperature anomalies for the better part of the next week across the South. This type of outbreak will rival that of the August 2007 heatwave across the Southeast. Thanks for posting Phil....bet you are glad your in Albany & done with UNCA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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