Stormsfury Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 So far, it's been quite mild across the region to start out June. in fact, last Saturday was the first 90 degree reading at KCHS the entire month, and most of the month has featured below normal temps. However, that unfortunately might potentially come to a halt as we near the end of June into July. PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 912 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 VALID 12Z FRI JUN 29 2012 - 12Z MON JUL 02 2012 ...ALL-TIME JUNE RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE COUNTRY... PREFERENCES: 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF FOR PRESSURES 00Z GEFS MEAN/00Z ECMWF FOR TEMPS AND POPS THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT TROUGHING WILL PERPETUATE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST...WHILE MOST PLACES IN BETWEEN WILL BE UNDER THE AEGIS OF AN EXPANSIVE WARM CORE RIDGE. WITHIN THE WESTERLIES...THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PRESSURE-WISE...SO USED THEM AS A TEMPLATE. IN THE SOUTHEAST... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER'S/NHC'S LATEST GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED...WHICH IS HEDGING TOWARDS THE QUICKER NON-UKMET CONSENSUS. PLAYED DOWN THE PRECIPITATION THREAT DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE PROGRESSIVELY TO THE EAST. LOCATIONS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS ARE EXPECTED TO BAKE...SIZZLE...AND FRY THIS PERIOD DUE TO A BURGEONING WARM CORE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS THE HOTTEST OF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE...WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE. TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES...WE FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 27C/82F...WHICH WOULD EQUATE TO TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 110F EACH AFTERNOON. IF DEBBY DEPARTS FASTER THAN THE NHC FORECAST /OR REMAINS A STRONGER SYSTEM THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED/ ALONG THE LINES OF THE NON-UKMET DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-SOUTH. ROTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 I said this before and I'll say it again. YIKES! I hope within the next day or two local and national forecasters start hyping this heatwave up if it continues to look this impressive on the models. Folks need time to start planning and preparing especially those who live without air conditioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 110 degrees ? Wow. I think that would be an all time record for Atlanta. Let's just hope the dewpoints stay low. 110 degrees and dewpoints in the 70's would be unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 SF! Last year the kids played ball in heat similar to this and 2 of our umpires had a heat stroke while on the field. Not looking forward to a repeat performance...sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Heat is very very dangerous. I think I heard that heat is the number 1 weather killer in the U.S. Hopefully everyone will make sure their older relatives have plenty of air conditioning and water over the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Damn it can we get a break anymore? The last 2 summers were hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Been following this as well. ECMWF looked extremely warm at 850, with widespread +30, which looks overdone to me. The GFS though did have +27 over southern VA and northern NC Friday afternoon and the ridge placed just west, so that would equate to surface west winds mostly, which would only bring on more heat through downsloping, especially the Piedmont region. There's a lot that could swing this either way. Ground moisture is one, and how much rain falls this week. I know its extremely dry in west Kentucky under where the core of the 594 heights will be on Thursday and Friday. Also, how much cirrus debris can drop southward from any MCC or frontal system in the Midwest...I know every year I see a cirrus canopy drop south to the Carolinas, which ends up messing up what would have been a truly miserable day, but it's hard to see that happening yet. But GFS does hint at a small cluster of storms in the Apps on Saturday (which would be slow movers , even assuming they break the extreme cap) And again on Saturday and Sunday evenings it generates some storms in north Alabama and the Tenn. Valley, so any debris from that would help some areas to stay under the absolute hot maxes forecasted. One thing odd about this heat wave is the lack of a true round 594 height field. It's small and it ebbs and flows from Thursday, onward. Usually big heat waves have a very pronounced one. Also, the ECMWF is pushing that +30 temp very far east, I'm not sure I can recall ever seeing it even forecast that high a number this far east (its pretty common in western Plains heat waves though). Either way, going to get very hot, the only question is how hot. There's a lot of other factors that could hurt or help the temps achieve max status too, like where Debby's remains are and how strong it is. GFS lolligags it offshore Jacksonville, and if its in any kind of decent shape, that would be very bad news east of the Appalachians, through extreme subsidence and downsloping. It would be bad enough even without that there, but if things line up perfectly , widespread 100's are coming and some areas could surpass 105, maybe even touch 110, but I think a pretty wet ground may eat up some of the heat in part of the Carolinas, with recent convection. Here's some stuff I put on my site earlier. All time June Max temps through 2005: ECMWF surface temps Friday Forecast (120 hour issued 00z Mon) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 The hottest June temperature in Asheville, NC is 99*F at the airport and 98*F in downtown (records go back to the 1870s here). Could we tie or top that here? It is really hard to get that warm here, but it obviously can be done. Is this the scenario that does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 We're getting a forecast near 100F in Knoxville by Saturday. I think I'm going to head up to the AT to beat the heat that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 The hottest June temperature in Asheville, NC is 99*F at the airport and 98*F in downtown (records go back to the 1870s here). Could we tie or top that here? It is really hard to get that warm here, but it obviously can be done. Is this the scenario that does it? Point Forecast: Asheville NC 35.59°N 82.57°W Mobile Weather Information | En Español Last Update: 2:47 pm EDT Jun 25, 2012 Forecast Valid: 4pm EDT Jun 25, 2012-6pm EDT Jul 2, 2012 Preview a redesign of the NWS forecast pages Late Hi 86 °F Tonight /images/wtf/hi_ntsra20.jpg Isolated Tstms Lo 58 °F Tuesday /images/wtf/few.jpg Sunny Hi 76 °F Tuesday Night /images/wtf/nskc.jpg Clear Lo 50 °F Wednesday /images/wtf/skc.jpg Sunny Hi 83 °F Wednesday Night /images/wtf/nskc.jpg Clear Lo 56 °F Thursday /images/wtf/few.jpg Sunny Hi 90 °F Thursday Night /images/wtf/nfew.jpg Mostly Clear Lo 59 °F Friday /images/wtf/hot.jpg Hot Hi 99 °F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Yes...and the point forecast for Flat Creek, NC (just south of Weaverville) is for 100 on the nose. Impressive! I'm getting concerned this heat isn't getting enough attention. We are talking about breaking (maybe even shattering) all time June maximum temperature records. And based on what I see on the GFS, it looks like it starts Thursday and goes into the following week. It is shaping up to be a prolonged heat wave. Point Forecast: Asheville NC 35.59°N 82.57°W Mobile Weather Information | En Español Last Update: 2:47 pm EDT Jun 25, 2012 Forecast Valid: 4pm EDT Jun 25, 2012-6pm EDT Jul 2, 2012 Preview a redesign of the NWS forecast pages Late Hi 86 °F Tonight /images/wtf/hi_ntsra20.jpg Isolated Tstms Lo 58 °F Tuesday /images/wtf/few.jpg Sunny Hi 76 °F Tuesday Night /images/wtf/nskc.jpg Clear Lo 50 °F Wednesday /images/wtf/skc.jpg Sunny Hi 83 °F Wednesday Night /images/wtf/nskc.jpg Clear Lo 56 °F Thursday /images/wtf/few.jpg Sunny Hi 90 °F Thursday Night /images/wtf/nfew.jpg Mostly Clear Lo 59 °F Friday /images/wtf/hot.jpg Hot Hi 99 °F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Wow, not good. It's difficult to break 100 here; I don't think we've done so since 2007 (and that was in Atlanta, normally a bit hotter than we are). But it looks like triple digits are within reach here. FFC is only calling for 96 Friday, which is probably reasonable seeing that the miserable excuse for a TC will play a big part in how hot we get, and it seems to be pretty tough to figure out where she's going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Good thing we just had the car in the shop for it's 60,000 mile physical and new tires.. We're driving from Raleigh to Gatlinburg on Thursday, then poke around the mountains Friday and Saturday before coming home late on Sat. Really hating the fact that no one will be here to water the gardens during this hot and dry event. They wilt right now in 90° heat if I miss a spot for a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 sf - good to see a post from you. it usually means interesting weather lol. however, after reading the thread and about the heat i may take that back after a relatively mild and damp spring and early summer this heat will be a slap in the face. even if we end up not breaking any records, heat close or near to a record is still going to be sweltering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Just like a lot of forecasters made a grave mistake with the initial track of Debby, I'm afraid some people may be going overboard with the weekend heat... I'm not saying its going to be hot but widespread low-mid 100's takes a lot of things to happen in order to pull it off across the Southeast. I noticed one of the TV Mets is going with 97 in Asheville on Friday...really? 97? I don't ever remember in my lifetime Asheville getting much higher than 93 or 94. Be careful with the numerical data from the GFS. All it would take is ground moisture or high cirrus debris to put a bust on those temps. 97-101 should be common for anyone outside of the North Carolina mountains but even ground moisture could play a trick on those temps or the slightest advection of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 It almost feels like winter when waiting on a developing snowstorm looking at some of the local forecasters' forecast for this heatwave. Noone seems to have the balls to put a 100 out there yet. Our FOX affiliate is getting close to doing it for this weekend which I think might be our best chance. The only ones who seem to be putting all the cards on the table are TWC, Accuweather, and Wunderground that I've seen. Speaking of Wunderground, I think they're getting a little carried away on the heat for Friday and Saturday forecasting 108 and 106 those days here respectfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Record for Cullowhee for Friday the 29th is 98F. We are expecting temps near 96F. A close call for sure. And Cullowhee average 8.5 days above 90F per year (30 yr avg) and we look to make a run at the avg late this week into next week, uugghh! Looks like i'll be amphibious this weekend, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Just like a lot of forecasters made a grave mistake with the initial track of Debby, I'm afraid some people may be going overboard with the weekend heat... I'm not saying its going to be hot but widespread low-mid 100's takes a lot of things to happen in order to pull it off across the Southeast. I noticed one of the TV Mets is going with 97 in Asheville on Friday...really? 97? I don't ever remember in my lifetime Asheville getting much higher than 93 or 94. Be careful with the numerical data from the GFS. All it would take is ground moisture or high cirrus debris to put a bust on those temps. 97-101 should be common for anyone outside of the North Carolina mountains but even ground moisture could play a trick on those temps or the slightest advection of moisture. i agree. No way the foothills or mountains approach the upper 90's with soil moisture so high around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 GFS MOS MEX is probably closer to reality, with 93 at AVL for Sat and Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 GFS MOS MEX is probably closer to reality, with 93 at AVL for Sat and Sun MEX has 96 there for Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 i agree. No way the foothills or mountains approach the upper 90's with soil moisture so high around here. What soil moisture? We are WAY below normal in rainfall for the month! My grass is brown and the ground is rock hard. Any "moisture" will quickly go away today and tomorrow with a dry airmass and nearly clear skies. I think 97 is readily achievable in Asheville on Friday. Yes, I have the balls to say it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Speaking of moisture, the Asheville Airport has received only 0.45" this month. Average is nearly ten times that. And we've had a lot of sunny days. http://www.weather.gov/data/GSP/CF6AVL We are dry. Nearing early drought category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 GFS MOS MEX is probably closer to reality, with 93 at AVL for Sat and Sun Both the GFS and now the NAM are showing 850mb temperatures between +25 and +27 in the mountains on Friday and Saturday. Dry adiabatically, that results in a range of 100-104. Accounting for elevation, and using the latest 800mb temperatures of 22-24C, that should be easy mid-90s in Asheville. And that's just dry adiabatically. Accounting for dry soils and full sunshine, 95-98 seems likely to me on Friday and Saturday in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Big temperature swings remainder of week. The 12Z GFS run (Tuesday) coming in now shows 39.7 degrees in the NC High Country possible tonight. Then oppressive heat end of week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Speaking of moisture, the Asheville Airport has received only 0.45" this month. Average is nearly ten times that. And we've had a lot of sunny days. http://www.weather.gov/data/GSP/CF6AVL We are dry. Nearing early drought category. How are the rivers there doing? Are the streams dried up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 NWS has me at 99 on Friday and 101 on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 It is just hard to believe any forecast with temps that hot in North Carolina. It is historically rare for a reason. But then again, Denver just hit 105. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Looking at 103 in Faynam on Saturday. I'm willing to bet someone hits 105 here or in central SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 What soil moisture? We are WAY below normal in rainfall for the month! My grass is brown and the ground is rock hard. Any "moisture" will quickly go away today and tomorrow with a dry airmass and nearly clear skies. I think 97 is readily achievable in Asheville on Friday. Yes, I have the balls to say it! Asheville Regional had a slight surplus in precip for the year going into the month...granted June has been dry but overall there is still plenty of ground moisture...if this was 5 years ago when we were a desert oasis, then I could buy your argument. One thing I will agree is that since June has been dry, we're in need for some rain because dry conditions can develop quickly in this pattern. IMO I would be stunned if KAVL made it to 97...even more shocking is that if Asheville does make it to 97, then what will the high be along the immediate lee of the mountains? Regardless, it will be interesting to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 my wunderground app has me at 108 on Friday! Yikes!!! Here's to praying to God that doesn't happen..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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