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June 23rd - 30th Severe Weather Thread


andyhb

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Figured the old thread could be laid to bed now. Parts of Saskatchewan aren't looking too bad on Tuesday as a strong shortwave finally ejects eastward after being hung up on the coast for days...00z NAM and GFS are both catching the potential.

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The Prairie Storm Prediction Centre has issued a moderate risk for tornadoes and very large hail today for Alberta & Saskatchewan. They also have a moderate out on the day 2 indicating a high risk may be needed for long track tornadoes and large hail. I just accidentally discovered there is a storm prediction centre on the prairies that issues day one and day two convective outlooks. They hide this stuff well.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM

PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CDT MONDAY JUNE

25 2012.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND

THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA AND SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF

SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.

WATCHES, WARNINGS, AND STATEMENTS...NONE AT THIS TIME.

OVERVIEW...THE 00Z UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL

PRAIRIES AND A POTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW EMANATING FROM A DEEP

TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THERE WAS ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH

FROM THE EASTERN ARCTIC TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE US. THE 06Z

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW OVER MONTANA, ONE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC

AND ONE OVER ALASKA. A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE OVER

SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA, WITH POCKETS OF

SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER TEENS.

DISCUSSION...A PAIR OF POTENT SEVERE WEATHER DAYS IS POISED TO OCCUR

OVER THE REGION. HANG ON TO YOUR HATS.

SYNOPTIC-SCALE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE COMING INTO RATHER

GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY

IN SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHEAST ALBERTA. THE MOIST AIRMASS

WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND NOT GET MIXED OUT, AS REGIONAL SOUNDINGS

FROM 25/00Z SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE FOR THIS PART OF THE WORLD.

THIS WILL LEAD TO A BIG AREA OF MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.

THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND WILL STAY AT ITS

CURRENT STRENGTH OR INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PROVIDING PLENTY OF

SHEAR. THE ONGOING OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL HELP TO FOCUS AREAS

MORE SPECIFICALLY, BUT A WARM FRONT SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM ABOUT

LETHBRIDGE TO KINDERSLEY, AND THIS WILL LIKELY FOCUS CONVECTIVE

INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALIGN WITH THE EDGE OF

THE CAP, SO STORMS' INFLOW SHOULD REMAIN UNPOLLUTED. AS A RESULT,

SUPERCELLS SHOULD QUICKLY EVOLVE ONCE STORMS DO BEGIN. LARGE HAIL IS

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS IN THIS CORRIDOR, BUT A FEW

TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, GIVEN VEERING, ALBEIT, RELATIVELY

WEAK, FLOW. STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN NUMBER AND COVERAGE DURING

THE EVENING, EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATING INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT MAY

REACH ALL THE WAY TO THE MANITOBA BORDER BY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH AN

ATTENDANT RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER

PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE REST OF SOUTHERN

SASKATCHEWAN, WESTERN AND CENTRAL MANITOBA.

DAY 2 LOOKS EVEN MORE VOLATILE, WITH A POTENTIAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE

WEATHER ON TAP. DETAILS OF COURSE WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON OVERNIGHT

CONVECTION TONIGHT AND MOISTURE, BUT A MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE

AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE JUXTAPOSED WITH SIGNIFICANT VEERING

OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT. TORNADOES, PERHAPS ONE

OR TWO LONG-TRACK, LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND

EVENING BEFORE YET ANOTHER SQUALL LINE FORMS AND BLASTS OFF TO THE

NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THE

STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE A 100 KM CIRCLE CENTERED AROUND ABOUT MOOSE

JAW. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PROCEED AS CURRENTLY FORECAST, A

CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE

REGION.

GOOD POTENTIAL FOR +RA WARNINGS ON DAY 2 THROUGH CENTRAL ALBERTA AS

THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN NEAR WAINWRIGHT. UP TO 100 MM POSSIBLE BY

WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE ARCTIC WILL BE QUIET THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCATTERED TRW

THROUGH THE MACKENZIE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

END/CARLSEN/WIELKI

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The Prairie Storm Prediction Centre has issued a moderate risk for tornadoes and very large hail today for Alberta & Saskatchewan. They also have a moderate out on the day 2 indicating a high risk may be needed for long track tornadoes and large hail. I just accidentally discovered there is a storm prediction centre on the prairies that issues day one and day two convective outlooks. They hide this stuff well.

Link plzkthx

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Link plzkthx

The College of DuPage has a Canadian area where I have tracked down old tornado warnings and such across Canada. It's impossible to navigate, but by complete accident I opened this while searching for 25-jun-2012 updates. I don't know why forecasts like these aren't available on the Environment Canada website.

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/CWWG/1206251200.focn45.html

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The College of DuPage has a Canadian area where I have tracked down old tornado warnings and such across Canada. It's impossible to navigate, but by complete accident I opened this while searching for 25-jun-2012 updates. I don't know why forecasts like these aren't available on the Environment Canada website.

http://kamala.cod.ed...200.focn45.html

Odd that it's such a secret... maybe they've seen how the public in the US tears apart the SPC when they're wrong and don't want to go through the same :P

Thanks for the link!

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I'm trying to google for information on the prairie and arctic storm prediction centre, and so far I have found this Canadian chaser groups website discussing today and tomorrow. There is also a link to live video feed at the bottom of the page. This is all news to me.

http://tornadohunter...rollPosition=35

Edit, davefootball123 has pointed out that Reed Timmer is up here in Canada calling this possibly one of the most significant outbreak scenarios for Canada in a long time.

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First warning of the afternoon from EC WFO Edmonton. S.A. 3 means "Special Area 3" and M.D. means "Municipal District". They are forms of counties in Alberta. Radar: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=XBU

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN

ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA

AT 12:37 PM MDT MONDAY 25 JUNE 2012.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ALBERTA...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:

=NEW= S.A. 3 NEAR SIBBALD AND ESTHER

=NEW= M.D. OF ACADIA INCLUDING ACADIA VALLEY.

AT 12:20 PM MDT METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM 35 KILOMETRES SOUTH OF OYEN. THIS THUNDERSTORM IS

MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 60 KM/H AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE

LARGE HAIL, STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO ENVIRONMENT CANADA CALL

1-800-239-0484 OR EMAIL STORM(AT)EC. GC. CA.

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And Global News Regina is reporting on the severe weather threat. A Saskatchewan storm chaser is comparing this to Joplin, MO?

"The storm is not set up exactly the same but certainly the threat level were experiencing in Saskatchewan is the same as it was in Joplin, Missouri last year,” Johnson mentioned."

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And Global News Regina is reporting on the severe weather threat. A Saskatchewan storm chaser is comparing this to Joplin, MO?

"The storm is not set up exactly the same but certainly the threat level were experiencing in Saskatchewan is the same as it was in Joplin, Missouri last year,” Johnson mentioned."

Yeah, um...wow.

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Looks like that supercell that has gone up over Special Area's #2 and #3 in SE Alberta may be taking a right turn. I wish there was quality radar products in Canada. Best I can find is Accuweather but you can't turn the loop off. The supercell is currently severe warned. Wunderground has base velocity on Canadian radars, but the feeds haven't worked since June 14.

Edit, walnut sized hail reported with it.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:

S.A. 2 NEAR SUNNYNOOK

S.A. 2 NEAR CESSFORD WARDLOW AND POLLOCKVILLE

S.A. 3 NEAR YOUNGSTOWN

S.A. 3 NEAR BIG STONE CAPPON AND GOLD SPUR.

AT 6:10 PM MDT METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM 40 KILOMETRES SOUTH OF HANNA. THIS THUNDERSTORM IS

MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 60 KM/H AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO

PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

WALNUT SIZED HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

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Concerned that current convection could congeal into one big MCS or rain shield over night into the morning and wipe out the potential for tomorrow. Already has that messy cluttered look. Something similar happened for the Manitoba threat we had earlier in the month. I know it's unreasonably pessimistic, but the way this year has been makes it a real possibility.

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Concerned that current convection could congeal into one big MCS or rain shield over night into the morning and wipe out the potential for tomorrow. Already has that messy cluttered look. Something similar happened for the Manitoba threat we head earlier in the month. I know it's unreasonably pessimistic, but the way this year has been makes it a real possibility.

More like, "it's what we have come to expect from you".

Also, the way the year has been going makes no difference regarding morning convection having an influence over following convection/destabilization. It is a threat to setups regardless.

Quite frankly, looking at radar, there isn't a whole lot going on, outside of the cells in Northern MT and the supercell/other cells east of Drumheller/Coronation. Do remember that tomorrow's threat is focused in Saskatchewan.

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More like, "it's what we have come to expect from you".

Also, the way the year has been going makes no difference regarding morning convection having an influence over following convection/destabilization. It is a threat to setups regardless.

I realize this, just saying it has been a common occurrence lately, not that that will actually affect an upcoming setup.

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Explosive supercell going up southwest of Lethbridge, AB. Just got warned.

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN

ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA

AT 7:40 PM MDT MONDAY 25 JUNE 2012.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ALBERTA...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:

=NEW= CO. OF LETHBRIDGE NEAR COALDALE

=NEW= CITY OF LETHBRIDGE

=NEW= CO. OF WARNER NEAR RAYMOND AND NEW DAYTON

=NEW= BLOOD RES. 148 INCLUDING STAND OFF

=NEW= CARDSTON CO. NEAR MAGRATH AND WOOLFORD PROV. PARK.

AT 7:30 PM MDT METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM 25 KILOMETRES NORTHEAST OF CARDSTON.

THIS THUNDERSTORM IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 KM/H AND HAS

PRODUCED LARGE HAIL, STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

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Explosive supercell going up southwest of Lethbridge, AB. Just got warned.

It's split in two and looks like Lethbridge will end up in the space between, but then again Great Falls radar is looking 130 miles away so I don't know how accurate that makes this scan.

post-277-0-44821100-1340676765_thumb.png

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Latest runs of the RAP for tomorrow are concerning, they are breaking out multiple rounds of discrete-looking storms within a very highly sheared and unstable environment across Southern and Central Saskatchewan...and quite early as well.

Barring morning convection, that high risk that was mentioned in the PSPC's outlook will have to be strongly considered.

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It was posted on another forum that the 700 mb temps don't look good, and they don't, with up to 15 in southern Saskatchewan. Capping does seem to let up as the day goes on according to the models though, as does the CIN. Still not perfect though. John Davies has a write-up however that states that judging by 700 mb temps does not work in the Northern Plains due to higher terrain, and surface based storms can still fire with warmer caps. I would think that terrain in SK would be similar to that of the High Plains, but i'm not sure if the capping issue would be minimized there or not. I really do not know enough about capping, but thought i'd bring it up for someone who knows more.

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Seeing the PASPC talk about a "relatively moist atmosphere with DP's in the upper teens" makes me laugh... When the DP here in KS is 75 for me... Are DP's usually that low in Canada?

C I suppose? The mid teens C is in the mid 60's F

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Environment Canada has declared a High Risk for SK. It's a brief outlook, but they specify they do not have time to make a detailed discussion. EC is not staffed like the NWS/SPC. Perhaps the 2pm outlook will be in good detail.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM

PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CDT TUESDAY JUNE

26 2012.

THERE IS HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER

SOUTHWESTRN SASKATCHEWAN. SLIGHT RISK SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER

SOUTHEAST ALBERTA.

WATCHES, WARNINGS, AND STATEMENTS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

STILL IN EFFECT FOR SMALL AREA OF SOUTHWESTRN SASKATCHEAN AND WILL

BE ENDED SHORTLY. RAINFALL WARNING FOR SOUTHWEST FOOTHILLS OF

ALBERTA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST ALBERTA.

HUMIDEX ADVISORY ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA AND SOUTHEASTERN

SASKATCHEWAN FOR TODAY.

OVERVIEW...UPPER RIDGE HAVE MOVED INTO MANITOBA. UPPER TROF OVER

EASTERN PACIFIC WITH UPPER LOW OFF WASHINGTON-OREGON COAST LEAVING

ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN IN SWLY FLOW.

WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY SHOW VERY STRONG VORT MAX OVER SERN OREGON

EARLY THIS MORNIG MOVING NEWD TOWARDS CNTRL IDAHO. THIS VORT MAX

IS EXPECTED TO HELP FORMING SFC LOW OVER NRN MONTANA NEAR NOON

TODAY AND MOVE IN NWD ALONG AB-SK BORDER. SELY LOW LVL FLOW

AHEAD OF THIS LOW HAVE BEEN CONTINUING ADVECTION LOW LVL MOISTURE

INTO SRN SK AND SWRN MANITOBA. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER

TEENS OVER SRN SK AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER 20C THIS AFTERNOON.

THETA W VALUES IN THE MID TWENTIES ASSOCIATED. AIRMASS WILL BE

CAPPED OVER SERN SK AND SRN MANITOBA BUT CAP WILL BE BROKEN

OVER SWRN SK THIS AFTERNOON. LI WILL REACH -6 TO -8 AND MLCAPES

OVER 3000 J/KG. WITH VERY SIGNIFICANT WINDSHEAR WE EXPECT

SUPERCELLS TO FORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. COMPARE YESTERDAY

SET UP TODAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE SURFACE BASED WITH STRONGER

SHEAR AND LARGE MID LVL LAPSE RATES, DO NOT HAVE TIME FOR LONGER

DISCUSSION AT PRESENT TIME SINCE WE STILL HAVE WARNINGS FOR SWRN SK.

ALBERTA...SLIGHT RISK SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN

ALBERTA EARLY TODAY IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE

RATES COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP SHEAR AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO

MID TEENS WILL CREATE THE RECIPE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER

EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA AGAIN TODAY. THE RISK WILL END LATER

THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASOCTD JET MOVE FURTHER EAST. IN

ADDITION THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE

SOUTHWESTERN FOOTHILLS TODAY WITH 50 TO 70 MM EXPECTED BY THIS

EVENING. THE RAIN AREA WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD AS THE LOW

MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. RAINFALL WARNINGS MAY BE EXTENDED NEWD

AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

WESTERN ARCTIC...EXPECT TO SEE AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE

MACKENZIE VALLEY AS FAR NORTH AS FORT GOOD HOPE AGAIN TODAY. THE AMS

REMAINS UNSTABLE BUT WITH ONLY WEAK SHEAR DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. ELSW NIL SIG WEATHER.

IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC.. NO SIG WEATHER.

END/GERLYAND/MACKAY

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For anyone interested in today's storm threat in Canada I'll put together a list of tracking resources.

Watches/Warnings (numbers 11-16 in links to tell apart)

Direct Southern Alberta: http://kamala.cod.ed...cn15.chunk.html

Direct Southern Saskatchewan: http://kamala.cod.ed...cn13.chunk.html

Direct Northern Saskatchewan: http://kamala.cod.ed...cn14.chunk.html

Direct Southern Manitoba: http://kamala.cod.ed...cn11.chunk.html

Direct Northern Manitoba: http://kamala.cod.ed...cn12.chunk.html

EC watch/warn map: http://www.weatherof...warnings_e.html

List of Rural Municipalities in Saskatchewan and a corresponding map. They are numbered.

List: http://en.wikipedia....in_Saskatchewan

Maps: http://www.municipal...pal-boundaries/ (the top map has the RM's, the bottom map has city labels)

Media:

Global Regina SK: http://www.globalregina.com/

Global Saskatoon SK: http://www.globalsaskatoon.com/

Global Lethbridge AB: http://www.globallethbridge.com/

Global Winnipeg MB: http://www.globalwinnipeg.com/

SK radio stations: http://www.radio-loc...K&format=&band=

AB radio stations: http://www.radio-loc...B&format=&band=

MB radio stations: http://www.radio-loc...B&format=&band=

Chaser video (click the gray bar)

http://tornadohunter...live-streaming/

Twitter hashtags

#skstorm

#abstorm

#mbstorm

Facebook links:

The Weather Network: https://www.facebook...eweathernetwork

Radar

Environment Canada: http://www.weatherof...x_e.html?id=WRN

Accuweather loop only: http://www.accuweath...l/weather-radar

Also NWS Great Falls, Glasgow, Minot, and Grand Forks.

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Tornado watch issued for central southwestern Saskatchewan including the city of Saskatoon. Severe thunderstorm watches have been issued east of the watch including the capital city of Regina.

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN

ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA

AT 10:24 AM CST TUESDAY 26 JUNE 2012.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...

TORNADO WATCH FOR:

=NEW= CITY OF SASKATOON

=NEW= MARTENSVILLE - WARMAN - ROSTHERN - DELISLE - WAKAW

=NEW= OUTLOOK - WATROUS - HANLEY - IMPERIAL - DINSMORE

=NEW= HUMBOLDT - WYNYARD - WADENA - LANIGAN - FOAM LAKE

=NEW= MELFORT - TISDALE - NIPAWIN - CARROT RIVER

=NEW= MOOSE JAW - PENSE - CENTRAL BUTTE - CRAIK

=NEW= SWIFT CURRENT - HERBERT - CABRI - KYLE - LUCKY LAKE

=NEW= PRINCE ALBERT - SHELLBROOK - SPIRITWOOD - DUCK LAKE.

TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER

PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GRAINBELT.

CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO

PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL..FLOODING RAIN..DEADLY LIGHTNING AND

POWERFUL WINDS. USE THIS TIME TO SECURE OUTDOOR PROPERTY AND

TO ENSURE FAMILY MEMBERS AND CO-WORKERS ARE PREPARED TO TAKE

ACTION SHOULD THE SEVERE WEATHER APPROACH.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY

FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE TORNADO

WARNINGS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OR

WEATHERADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER APPROACH OR IF YOU FEEL THREATENED DO NOT

WAIT FOR WARNINGS TO TAKE ACTION..TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

SHOULD YOU SPOT A FUNNEL CLOUD OR TORNADO...

AND ONLY IF IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...YOU CAN CALL 1-800-239-0484

TO REPORT YOUR SIGHTING.

PLEASE NOTE THIS PHONE NUMBER IS FOR REPORTING SEVERE WEATHER

ONLY.

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