the first time in history that four named storms have formed before July 1

[cyclonebuster]

On top of that, the ATL basin is expected to be near peak right now anyway...slowly declining through 2020-2025 if the past multi-decadal cycles are to be followed. 2005 was probably the peak andwe should still see some active seasons for now, but it should begin to show a more notable decadal decline as we go through the next couple decades.

Be assured we will see that when the Northern summer time Arctic Ice returns to pre-industrial revolution values, until then the land,sea and air will grow warmer and warmer melting more ice and we will have more tropical cyclones. I am interested to see how many we get this year and compare that to 2010 and 2011.

[ORH_wxman]

Be assured we will see that when the summer time Arctic Ice returns to pre-industrial revolution values, until then the land,sea and air will grow warmer and warmer melting more ice and we will have more tropical cyclones. I am interested to see how many we get this year and compare that to 2010 and 2011.

What is your proof for this? You still haven't refuted anything via peer reviewed science. You quoted an old 2004 Emmanuel paper which has since been revised by other peer reviewed papers (some of them co-authored by him)...his intensity increase seems to agreed upon (by about 1-3%) but the number of TCs is actually expected to go down in more recent peer reviewed papers in a warming world.

Unless you have some real evidence they will increase (and I'm not aware any exists in the peer reviewed science), then its really not very constructive to keep arguing this point.

[icebreaker5221]

On top of that, the ATL basin is expected to be near peak right now anyway...slowly declining through 2020-2025 if the past multi-decadal cycles are to be followed. 2005 was probably the peak andwe should still see some active seasons for now, but it should begin to show a more notable decadal decline as we go through the next couple decades.

Yup. As AMO begins to decline, Atlantic should become less active while Pacific becomes more active again.

I suspect global ACE will probably rise back to climatological values over the next few years.

[cyclonebuster]

Unfortunately, (or probably fortunately) there are a couple of problems with this idea.

1) Moist atmospheric convection is not the same as what you get when water vapor rises from your pot of boiling water. When your water boils, it is much hotter than the air above it and rises quickly. The air in you kitchen is also about the same temperature near the top of the stove as at the ceiling. In the atmosphere, the air above the ocean surface is roughly the same temperature as the ocean below it. Even tho the air at the tropopause is much colder, the actual stability of an air parcel depends up the potential temperature difference between the two, and lapse rates come into play. In a warmer world, the ocean warms, but the upper atmosphere also warms comparably. So there is little net thermal imbalance associated with a warming ocean. (I won't get into the fact that you don't have latent heating of fusion as that steam rises in your kitchen, a significant factor in deep tropical convection.)

2) It is true that warmer air can support more total moisture content than cool air, meaning higher dewpoints or higher mixing ratios. However, the occurrence of tropical cyclogenesis is dependent upon (near) saturation of the core of the system, which is more closely related to relative humidity. Saturation deficit increases at higher temperatures. Having a larger saturation deficit results in more dry downdrafts in a system, thus weakening it. While its true that regions of ascent and moisture convergence could potentially be more moist in a warmer scenario, regions of subsidence would be even drier (RH) at higher temperature.

Fortunately not is correct. Hopefully,we don't get into hypercane scenarios with the warming we are having.

[icebreaker5221]

Fortunately not is correct. Hopefully,we don't get into hypercane scenarios with the warming we are having.

I'm not trying to troll you. There are plenty of negative consequences of a warming world (more frequent heat waves, drought), but fortunately an increase in TC activity does not appear to be one of them.

[cyclonebuster]

I'm not trying to troll you. There are plenty of negative consequences of a warming world (more frequent heat waves, drought), but fortunately an increase in TC activity does not appear to be one of them.

I know you are not. But as the planet warms to me it makes sense the hurricane season is going to be extended to account for these early storms such as this year. This tells me we will have a longer seasons with more storms. 2010 and 2011 combined gave us 40 storms. No other consecutive years have had that. If this year has 20 or more storms then were are off the charts.........

[ORH_wxman]

I know you are not. But as the planet warms to me it makes sense the hurricane season is going to be extended to account for these early storms such as this year. This tells me we will have a longer seasons with more storms. 2010 and 2011 combined gave us 40 storms. No other consecutive years have had that. If this year has 20 or more storms then were are off the charts.........

You are still only quoting the Atlantic number (not global), two you are ignoring that the Atlantic should be more active anyway right now, and three you are ignoring that recent ratings of storms have been the most liberal than at anytime in the record with subtropical storms getting named and more scutiny than ever. All of this adds up to your theory not being consistent with the science.

[cyclonebuster]

You are still only quoting the Atlantic number (not global), two you are ignoring that the Atlantic should be more active anyway right now, and three you are ignoring that recent ratings of storms have been the most liberal than at anytime in the record with subtropical storms getting named and more scutiny than ever. All of this adds up to your theory not being consistent with the science.

Where is the extra heat going?