PhillipS Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 I am opening this thread for a discussion on the traditional 1 June - 30 Nov dates for the hurricane season - can a case be made that with warmer SSTs we are observing the designated start and end of the season should be changed? Say to 15 May - 15 Dec? As I'm sure most of you know, the fourth named tropical storm of 2012, TS Debby, was named today. What I found interesting (and a bit alarming) is that it went from Invest 96 to TS Debby in a matter of hours - despite a moderate wind shear and low humidity air over the western Gulf of Mexico. It's not predicted to grow to hurricane strength so it's not a disaster in the making but it did set a record. It is the earliest fourth TS on record by 12 days. Here's what Dr Jeff Masters wrote about TS Debby: Debby's place in history (by Jeff Masters) Remarkably, Debby's formation on June 23 comes a full two months ahead of the usual formation date of the season's fourth storm in the Atlantic, August 23. Debby's formation beats by twelve days the previous record for formation of the fourth named storm of the year in the Atlantic, set in 2005, when Hurricane Dennis was named on July 5. An early start to the Atlantic hurricane season has been increasingly common in recent years. In 2008, I blogged about the research of Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, who published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, titled "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". Three out of four of this year's early quartet of storms--Alberto, Beryl, and Debby--formed in ocean areas that were more than 1°F above average, which is an unusually high amount of warmth. We should expect to see more early-season Atlantic tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, since cool ocean temperatures are a key impediment to formation of such storms. However, this assumes that factors such as wind shear and atmospheric stability won't grow more hostile for tropical cyclone formation during the early part of hurricane season, and this is uncertain. If we do end up seeing a substantial increase in early-season tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Early-season tropical storms are often more boon than bane, bringing much-needed drought-busting rains, like Tropical Storm Beryl did for North Florida last month. There is typically a lot of wind shear around in May, June, and July, making it difficult for early season storms to reach major hurricane status. According to Wunderground's list of major early-season hurricanes, since record keeping began in 1851, there has been only one major hurricane in May, two in June, and nine in July. Three of these occurred in the past ten years, so there has not as yet been a large increase in early-season major hurricanes due to global warming. References Kossin, J., 2008, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L23705, doi:10.1029/2008GL036012, 2008. Since the hurricane season factors into people's plans for many activities, such as vacations and storm preparedness, would adjusting the dates give a more accurate guide for planners? All viewpoints are welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 It could have to do with us currently being in the warm phase of the AMO. From Wiki ''During warm phases of the AMO, the number of minor hurricanes (category 1 and 2) saw a modest increase.[9] With full consideration of meteorological science, the number of tropical storms that can mature into severe hurricanes is much greater during warm phases of the AMO than during cool phases, at least twice as many'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 More nonsense and cherry picking by the usual sources. Cherry picking the North Atlantic to prove that Global Warming is causing an increase in Tropical Cyclone Activity is not only misleading, but also dishonest. If you want to prove that Global Warming is responsible for an increase in Tropical Cyclone Activity, you have to post GLOBAL Tropical Cyclone Activity (usually measured in Accumulated Cyclonic Energy or ACE). http://policlimate.com/tropical/maue_grl_2011.pdf Tropical cyclone accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) has exhibited strikingly large global interannual variability during the past 40‐years. In the pentad since 2006, Northern Hemisphere and global tropical cyclone ACE has decreased dramatically to the lowest levels since the late 1970s. Additionally, the global frequency of tropical cyclones has reached a historical low. Here evidence is presented demonstrating that considerable variability in tropical cyclone ACE is associated with the evolution of the character of observed large‐scale climate mechanisms including the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In contrast to record quiet North Pacific tropical cyclone activity in 2010, the North Atlantic basin remained very active by contributing almost one‐third of the overall calendar year global ACE. There is also absolutely zero correlation between the number of storms formed in the beginning of the season, and the total storms during that season, because favorable weather patterns in the beginning of Hurricane Season can change into less favorable patterns for cyclonic activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 How about remote sensing, population expansion on the coast, new technologies, and more shipping means more records for Tropical Storms.. This is the 1st time our dataset (since 1851) has had a season with 4 storms before July 1st , big deal, 1 outside the box analog.. statistically insignificant.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Need I remind people of the 1997 hurricane season, which featured a quick start (including Danny in July) before the Super Nino kicked in, and rendered the Atlantic basin waste for the rest of the season, besides a couple of lopsided sheared TS's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipS Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 More nonsense and cherry picking by the usual sources. Cherry picking the North Atlantic to prove that Global Warming is causing an increase in Tropical Cyclone Activity is not only misleading, but also dishonest. If you want to prove that Global Warming is responsible for an increase in Tropical Cyclone Activity, you have to post GLOBAL Tropical Cyclone Activity (usually measured in Accumulated Cyclonic Energy or ACE). http://policlimate.c...ue_grl_2011.pdf Tropical cyclone accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) has exhibited strikingly large global interannual variability during the past 40‐years. In the pentad since 2006, Northern Hemisphere and global tropical cyclone ACE has decreased dramatically to the lowest levels since the late 1970s. Additionally, the global frequency of tropical cyclones has reached a historical low. Here evidence is presented demonstrating that considerable variability in tropical cyclone ACE is associated with the evolution of the character of observed large‐scale climate mechanisms including the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In contrast to record quiet North Pacific tropical cyclone activity in 2010, the North Atlantic basin remained very active by contributing almost one‐third of the overall calendar year global ACE. There is also absolutely zero correlation between the number of storms formed in the beginning of the season, and the total storms during that season, because favorable weather patterns in the beginning of Hurricane Season can change into less favorable patterns for cyclonic activity. Wow, you post is so completely OT that it makes me wonder about your reading comprehension. But I'll allow that your confusion could be the result of my writing being unclear - so I'll try again and this time I'll use shorter words. (And it might be a good idea for you to ask a grownup to explain the words you don't understand.) This is a thread to discuss the ramifications to the US (if any) to the research linked to in the Jeff Masters column which found that TCs are occuring both earlier and later in the year than they did historically. The shift is in the timing, not the numbers or intensity, of TCs in the North Atlantic. I think that it is uncontroversial to say that one of the factors needed for TC activity is warm SSTs in the Gulf and tropical Atlantic. According to the wikipedia article on cyclogenesis the minimum SST needed is 26.5 C. I understand that SSTs above 26.5 is a necessary, but not sufficient, criterion for TC formation - other factors such as wind shear and humidity are also important. The instrumental record shows that the ocean areas where the TCs originate are reaching that threshold temp earlier in the year and are staying above that threshold until later in the autumn. So the potential is increasing for TCs outside of the so-called 'Hurricane Season' of 1 June through 30 November. So the question I posed in my OP was - should the somewhat arbitrary dates of 1 June and 30 November be adjusted to better bound the actual hurricane season. When the term was first used the hurricane season was defined as 15 June through 31 October. Some time later the dates were shifted to 1 June through 15 November, and finally, in 1965, the current dates were adopted. My opinion is that it is time to adjust the dates again. BTW, Snowjob, did you actually read the research paper you linked to? I doubt it because if you had read the paper you would have learned that both ACE and the number of tropical cyclones is highly variable and that no statistically significant trend has been found for either. You would also have learned that the portion of global ACE attributable to North Atlantic TCs has risen from 9.0% for the 1979 - 1994 period to 18.6% for the 1995 - 2010 period - and was 32% for 2010. Since those are the TCs most likely to impact the US that is a disturbing trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Need I remind people of the 1997 hurricane season, which featured a quick start (including Danny in July) before the Super Nino kicked in, and rendered the Atlantic basin waste for the rest of the season, besides a couple of lopsided sheared TS's. Fortunately for tropical fanatics this year, another mega Nino won't be occurring.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Wow, you post is so completely OT that it makes me wonder about your reading comprehension. But I'll allow that your confusion could be the result of my writing being unclear - so I'll try again and this time I'll use shorter words. (And it might be a good idea for you to ask a grownup to explain the words you don't understand.) This is a thread to discuss the ramfications to the US (if any) to the research linked to in the Jeff Masters column which found that TCs are occuring both earlier and later in the year than they did historically. The shift is in the timing, not the numbers or intensity, of TCs in the North Atlantic. I think that it is uncontroversial to say that one of the factors needed for TC activity is warm SSTs in the Gulf and tropical Atlantic. According to the wikipedia article on cyclogenesis the minimum SST needed is 26.5 C. I understand that SSTs above 26.5 is a necessary, but not sufficient, criterion for TC formation - other factors such as wind shear and humidity are also important. The instrumental record shows that the ocean areas where the TCs originate are reaching that threshold temp earlier in the year and are staying above that threshold until later in the autumn. So the potential is increasing for TCs outside of the so-called 'Hurricane Season' of 1 June through 30 November. So the question I posed in my OP was - should the somewhat arbitrary dates of 1 June and 30 November be adjusted to better bound the actual hurricane season. When the term was first used the hurricane season was defined as 15 June through 31 October. Some time later the dates were shifted to 1 June through 15 November, and finally, in 1965, the current dates were adopted. My opinion is that it is time to adjust the dates again. BTW, Snowjob, did you actually read the research paper you linked to? I doubt it because if you had read the paper you would have learned that both ACE and the number of tropical cyclones is highly variable and that no statistically significant trend has been found for either. You would also have learned that the portion of global ACE attributable to North Atlantic TCs has risen from 9.0% for the 1979 - 1994 period to 18.6% for the 1995 - 2010 period - and was 32% for 2010. Since those are the TCs most likely to impact the US that is a disturbing trend. Quit the childish name calling. The paper is entirely relevant to this discussion because it essentially debunks your pet theory that global tropical cyclone activity is increasing or getting longer due to warming. ACE is one of the best ways that we can measure tropical cyclonic activity and those are currently at record lows globally. Funny how you "forgot" to mention that when you were gleefully trying to attribute a 50 mph tropical storm on AGW. Oh and by the way, it is well known that in a warmer world there would be higher SSTs, but there would also be higher amounts of wind shear, so the two would essentially cancel each other out. Funny how you still have not acknowledged that global ACE is at record lows. Perhaps that makes you the denier of facts and not I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Its happened plenty of other times so i believe there is nothing unprecedented going on. List of all early season (formed in January - May) Atlantic named storms May 31, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur May 6, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea April 18, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana April 21, 1992: Subtropical Storm 1 May 6, 1981: Tropical Storm Arlene January 18, 1978: Subtropical Storm 1 May 21, 1976: Subtropical Storm 1 May 23, 1972: Subtropical Storm Alpha May 17, 1970: Hurricane Alma (Category 1) May 28, 1959: Tropical Storm Arlene February 2, 1953: Tropical Storm Alice May 25, 1952: Tropical Storm 1 May 15, 1951: Hurricane Able (Category 3) May 22, 1948: Tropical Storm 1 May 19, 1940: Tropical Storm 1 May 27, 1934: Tropical Storm 1 May 14, 1933: Tropical Storm 1 May 5, 1932: Tropical Storm 1 May 13, 1916: Tropical Storm 1 May 24, 1908: Hurricane 2 (Category 1) March 6, 1908: Hurricane 1 (Category 2) May 27, 1890: Tropical Storm 1 May 16, 1889: Hurricane 1 (Category 1) May 17, 1887: Tropical Storm 2 May 15, 1887: Tropical Storm 1 May 30, 1865: Tropical Storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipS Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 Quit the childish name calling. The paper is entirely relevant to this discussion because it essentially debunks your pet theory that global tropical cyclone activity is increasing or getting longer due to warming. ACE is one of the best ways that we can measure tropical cyclonic activity and those are currently at record lows globally. Funny how you "forgot" to mention that when you were gleefully trying to attribute a 50 mph tropical storm on AGW. Oh and by the way, it is well known that in a warmer world there would be higher SSTs, but there would also be higher amounts of wind shear, so the two would essentially cancel each other out. Funny how you still have not acknowledged that global ACE is at record lows. Perhaps that makes you the denier of facts and not I. You may want to go back and reread your own quote from the paper - global ACE values are currently the lowest since the late 1970s - not at record lows. But I'm aware of your 'casual' respect for truth and accuracy so I'm not surprised at your error. And I easily acknowledge that globally the frequency of tCs is at the lowest level of the instrumental period. But as the paper you linked to pointed out, there is no statistically significant trend in either ACE or TC frequency. And I never said that global TC activity is up - if you feel that I did say that then please point out where I said that. What I did point out is that TS Debby did set a record as the earliest 4th named storm of the hurricane season (fact), and that there is peer-reviewed research that found that TC in the Atlantic are occurring earlier and later each year than historically (fact). I also said that if the term 'hurricane season' is to have any descriptive value then it should accurately bound the actual hurricane season (opinion). The forecast for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is for 10 - 13 named storms.- well, we've already had 4 and it's still June, four weeks into the hurricane season. Do you feel that we'll only have 9 more named storms in the remaining 22 weeks of the 2012 hurricane season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipS Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 Its happened plenty of other times so i believe there is nothing unprecedented going on. List of all early season (formed in January - May) Atlantic named storms May 31, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur May 6, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea April 18, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana April 21, 1992: Subtropical Storm 1 May 6, 1981: Tropical Storm Arlene January 18, 1978: Subtropical Storm 1 May 21, 1976: Subtropical Storm 1 May 23, 1972: Subtropical Storm Alpha May 17, 1970: Hurricane Alma (Category 1) May 28, 1959: Tropical Storm Arlene February 2, 1953: Tropical Storm Alice May 25, 1952: Tropical Storm 1 May 15, 1951: Hurricane Able (Category 3) May 22, 1948: Tropical Storm 1 May 19, 1940: Tropical Storm 1 May 27, 1934: Tropical Storm 1 May 14, 1933: Tropical Storm 1 May 5, 1932: Tropical Storm 1 May 13, 1916: Tropical Storm 1 May 24, 1908: Hurricane 2 (Category 1) March 6, 1908: Hurricane 1 (Category 2) May 27, 1890: Tropical Storm 1 May 16, 1889: Hurricane 1 (Category 1) May 17, 1887: Tropical Storm 2 May 15, 1887: Tropical Storm 1 May 30, 1865: Tropical Storm 1 You are correct that there have been unseasonably early named storm in the past. There have also been unseasonably late named storms, too. The only thing unprecedented (so far) about this year's hurricane season is that four named storms occurred by 6/23. It is a record - and therefore interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Its happened plenty of other times so i believe there is nothing unprecedented going on. List of all early season (formed in January - May) Atlantic named storms May 31, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur May 6, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea April 18, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana April 21, 1992: Subtropical Storm 1 May 6, 1981: Tropical Storm Arlene January 18, 1978: Subtropical Storm 1 May 21, 1976: Subtropical Storm 1 May 23, 1972: Subtropical Storm Alpha May 17, 1970: Hurricane Alma (Category 1) May 28, 1959: Tropical Storm Arlene February 2, 1953: Tropical Storm Alice May 25, 1952: Tropical Storm 1 May 15, 1951: Hurricane Able (Category 3) May 22, 1948: Tropical Storm 1 May 19, 1940: Tropical Storm 1 May 27, 1934: Tropical Storm 1 May 14, 1933: Tropical Storm 1 May 5, 1932: Tropical Storm 1 May 13, 1916: Tropical Storm 1 May 24, 1908: Hurricane 2 (Category 1) March 6, 1908: Hurricane 1 (Category 2) May 27, 1890: Tropical Storm 1 May 16, 1889: Hurricane 1 (Category 1) May 17, 1887: Tropical Storm 2 May 15, 1887: Tropical Storm 1 May 30, 1865: Tropical Storm 1 You've shifted the time period (through May vs through June) - this cuts the total N and reduces the sensitivity of any statistical test. Textbook example of shifting goalposts http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/atlhist_hires.gif This link shows the frequency of all TS and hurricanes..... it suggests a multidecade cyclical element superimposed on a rising baseline for the total storm number. The variability imposed by the cycle makes the significance of the rise marginal in the short term (I could cherry pick intervals and get you significance with the trusty Fisher's Exact Test, but what would it prove?). The frequency of multiple outlyers if probably the most sensitive measure of the change, as the OP says. That clearly suggests an expanded season. If you collect a dataset assigning the number of TS/hurricanes occurring before July 1 for each year, it will surely be significant, no cherry picking needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 You are correct that there have been unseasonably early named storm in the past. There have also been unseasonably late named storms, too. The only thing unprecedented (so far) about this year's hurricane season is that four named storms occurred by 6/23. It is a record - and therefore interesting. You are correct but it's a first time thing so in less we see it happening more frequent in the future i feel there is no significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 You've shifted the time period (through May vs through June) - this cuts the total N and reduces the sensitivity of any statistical test. Textbook example of shifting goalposts http://www.nhc.noaa....lhist_hires.gif This link shows the frequency of all TS and hurricanes..... it suggests a multidecade cyclical element superimposed on a rising baseline for the total storm number. The variability imposed by the cycle makes the significance of the rise marginal in the short term (I could cherry pick intervals and get you significance with the trusty Fisher's Exact Test, but what would it prove?). The frequency of multiple outlyers if probably the most sensitive measure of the change, as the OP says. That clearly suggests an expanded season. If you collect a dataset assigning the number of TS/hurricanes occurring before July 1 for each year, it will surely be significant, no cherry picking needed. Typical response from you not sure what your talking about shifting goalpost BS. That is a list of early season storms in the Atlantic that is all and it shows storms have happened early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Typical response from you not sure what your talking about shifting goalpost BS. That is a list of early season storms in the Atlantic that is all and it shows storms have happened early in the season. We were discussing the frequency of May+ June storms; you changed the subject to May and earlier. This change resulted in the obscuring of the significance of the increase in early season storms by reducing the sample size. The "goalposts" were at the 4th named storm; you moved them to June 1 and earlier to achieve the result you wanted, which is no significant difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 We were discussing the frequency of May+ June storms; you changed the subject to May and earlier. This change resulted in the obscuring of the significance of the increase in early season storms by reducing the sample size. The "goalposts" were at the 4th named storm; you moved them to June 1 and earlier to achieve the result you wanted, which is no significant difference. The point is technically the season starts June 1 so anything that forms after that date is considered in the season. The op is talking about changing the date into May what i posted shows that it's not unprecedented to see early storms that is all. The only thing that makes this year unusual was the amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipS Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 The point is technically the season starts June 1 so anything that forms after that date is considered in the season. The op is talking about changing the date into May what i posted shows that it's not unprecedented to see early storms that is all. The only thing that makes this year unusual was the amount. When the term 'Hurricane Season' was first defined the dates were 15 June - 31 October. Later the dates were changed to 1 June - 15 November. And the last date adjustment was in 1965 when the modern 1 June - 30 November period was adopted. So clearly there is nothing fixed, or sacred, about the starting and ending dates for the hurricane season. I feel that there are sound reasons why the dates should bound the actual period when hurricanes are likely. The major reason is money - municipal, state, and federal emergency agencies expend resources every summer to prepare for the hurricane season. It costs money to position supplies, equipment and crews - but it costs a lot more money to be unprepared when a severe TC makes landfall. Ideally planners could rely on long-range forecasts, but we don't live in an ideal world so often 'broad-brush' terms like hurricane season, brush-fire season, or tornado season are all planners have to work with. When those periods are accurate and meaningful that can be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclonebuster Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Even before all the summer time ice Is gone in the Northern Arctic hurricane season will be year long...................... You can bet on that........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Its happened plenty of other times so i believe there is nothing unprecedented going on. List of all early season (formed in January - May) Atlantic named storms May 31, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur May 6, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea April 18, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana April 21, 1992: Subtropical Storm 1 May 6, 1981: Tropical Storm Arlene January 18, 1978: Subtropical Storm 1 May 21, 1976: Subtropical Storm 1 May 23, 1972: Subtropical Storm Alpha May 17, 1970: Hurricane Alma (Category 1) May 28, 1959: Tropical Storm Arlene February 2, 1953: Tropical Storm Alice May 25, 1952: Tropical Storm 1 May 15, 1951: Hurricane Able (Category 3) May 22, 1948: Tropical Storm 1 May 19, 1940: Tropical Storm 1 May 27, 1934: Tropical Storm 1 May 14, 1933: Tropical Storm 1 May 5, 1932: Tropical Storm 1 May 13, 1916: Tropical Storm 1 May 24, 1908: Hurricane 2 (Category 1) March 6, 1908: Hurricane 1 (Category 2) May 27, 1890: Tropical Storm 1 May 16, 1889: Hurricane 1 (Category 1) May 17, 1887: Tropical Storm 2 May 15, 1887: Tropical Storm 1 May 30, 1865: Tropical Storm 1 Debate over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 When the term 'Hurricane Season' was first defined the dates were 15 June - 31 October. Later the dates were changed to 1 June - 15 November. And the last date adjustment was in 1965 when the modern 1 June - 30 November period was adopted. So clearly there is nothing fixed, or sacred, about the starting and ending dates for the hurricane season. I feel that there are sound reasons why the dates should bound the actual period when hurricanes are likely. The major reason is money - municipal, state, and federal emergency agencies expend resources every summer to prepare for the hurricane season. It costs money to position supplies, equipment and crews - but it costs a lot more money to be unprepared when a severe TC makes landfall. Ideally planners could rely on long-range forecasts, but we don't live in an ideal world so often 'broad-brush' terms like hurricane season, brush-fire season, or tornado season are all planners have to work with. When those periods are accurate and meaningful that can be enough. While you make some valid points about preparations remember also that technically speaking there is a chance for a storm any month of the year from what we have seen in the past tho rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclonebuster Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Debate over. As GHG's trap more incoming solar radiation from our sun and not allowing it to escape back out to space which allows our planet to cool, Earth will continue to warm. Oceans will become warmer,summertime Northen Arctic ice will dissapear and the Atlanitc Accumulatice Cyclone Energy Potential ( ACE ) will become greater meaning there will be pleanty of ocean heat which will create more water vapor to potentially support hurricane developement year round. This will also cause more severe weather and tornades to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclonebuster Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 As you can see since 1995 we are still in the high activity era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 As you can see since 1995 we are still in the high activity era. Which looks to coincide with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 I am opening this thread for a discussion on the traditional 1 June - 30 Nov dates for the hurricane season - can a case be made that with warmer SSTs we are observing the designated start and end of the season should be changed? Say to 15 May - 15 Dec? ...Since the hurricane season factors into people's plans for many activities, such as vacations and storm preparedness, would adjusting the dates give a more accurate guide for planners? All viewpoints are welcome. IMO, if a shift of the traditional timelines for the Atlantic hurricane season is justified by the statistical evidence, then the timelines should be shifted. However, I don't believe things have reached that point. The 1981-2010 period saw the average 1st storm occur just before June 27. Moreover, only 5 years during that base period saw the first storm develop prior to June 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclonebuster Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Which looks to coincide with this. Which coincides with this since the industrial revolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Which coincides with this since the industrial revolution. What are you exactly trying to say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclonebuster Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 What are you exactly trying to say? Pointing out the correlation between rising GHG's and Earths warming temperatures by posting NOAA graphs and how this can increase the potential heat available for cyclogenisis, severe weather and tornadogenisis........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Pointing out the correlation between rising GHG's and Earths warming temperatures by posting NOAA graphs and how this can increase the potential heat available for cyclogenisis, severe weather and tornadogenisis........... Strictly talking tropical storms/hurricanes the correlation isn't as strong as the running warm phases of the AMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclonebuster Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Strictly talking tropical storms/hurricanes the correlation isn't as strong as the running warm phases of the AMO. Since the "Heat Content" is greater then the potential is greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Since the "Heat Content" is greater then the potential is greater. Not necessarily you still need to have favorable conditions in place to get development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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