N. OF PIKE Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 cool find bob....im impressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Oh what ~9 hours (if that?) can do: No chance of Debby doing Dallas now, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 EURO caves to GFS...finally. Expect another shift of the cone at 5AM. Crosses Florida then bombs off North Carolina well over major hurricane status on tonight's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 So far Tampa area has actually had more rain despite being much farther from the circulation. As for 6 am EDT: Brooksville 12.07 Tampa 9.65 Apalachicola 7.13 Thhe Tamp area got hammered yesterday with that squall line and picked up a couple more inches last night too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Someone hasn't been paying attention. As a forecaster, I'm bound to adhere strictly to no biases....that said, I can't help but snicker and wonder what in the world folks are doing still bashing GFS , and claiming somehow the old ECMWF, the former superior model, when clearly the GFS has led the way for 18 consecutive months. I think old ways of thinking die really hard. Paying close attention to the Southeast in general, because I have to , and because it's my favorite forecasting region, those verification charts showing ECMWF on top are nothing but kindling. Ever since just after the Christmas 2010 storm, the GFS has shown every major weather event in our region in GENERAL....I know some areas it hasn't been quite so accurate, but in general, I've noticed it picked up on MCC events, if you know how to look for their beginnings, any damming events, even surface temp forecasting, when the GFS was really, really bad back in the day. Things have really changed hard, but like I said, the old mentality is still very much alive. Thank God I'm unbiased on go with which model makes the most sense and obviously GFS has the hot hand really. Anyway, full free update at wxsouth.com if you're interested. Click "register" and then "public" or "current weather". What's more interesting to me is the upcoming heat wave late week. The Carolinas and Virginia are going to bake. GFS shows some very rare air of +27 degrees at 850...we normally get our heat waves at +24 and a ridge of 594dm. There is good westerly low level flow to aid in the downslope warmth in the Piedmont, but as always, something could pop up to shave a couple degrees off potentially some of the hottest air in years. High cirrus clouds, ground moisture etc. I'm rooting against this. I haven't been 100 degrees in a couple Summers now..and don't miss it a bit. By the way, for the those that know me and my drought situation and mongering, I'm getting tons of rain here...it's never really stopped, other than the dry Winter. Doing just fine, and getting daily storms pretty regularly. I have to say it's very nice to feel "normal" after over decade of truly getting skipped in northwest flow. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1011 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2012 .NEAR TERM [Today]... Visible satellite indicates that TS Debby is clearly moving to the right of the most recent official forecast track and we anticipate changes to that forecast with the next advisory. The current satellite-derived movement is actually approximated by a consensus of the global models...finally! It appears that the GFS had the right idea all along. The present movement of the system signals that the overall threat for our FL Panhandle zones west of Cape San Blas is on a downward trend. Areas to the east will continue to see a prolonged threat for heavy rain and possible flash flooding. See the hydrology section below for details. The latest mesoanalysis shows 0-3 km helicities around 300 across parts of the FL Big Bend. A tornado watch remains in effect in the right front quadrant of Debby and we will need to keep our eyes out for any spinners that could produce tornadoes. In terms of forecast grid updates, we only made a few changes this morning. We adjusted PoPs upward slightly based on radar trends. We also went with predominant stratiform precipitation as opposed to the typical shower and thunderstorm wording. We did leave in isolated TS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 It's not everyday you see a 41 inch bullseye for a 5 day rainfall total on the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 No chance of Debby doing Dallas now, it appears. Nope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Latest GFS and Euro bring Debby out in to the ATL and strengthen her, could be some pretty big waves on the SE coast, in fact GFS isnt all that far off Myrtle Beach or Cape Fear with her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Hope you got to see some weather & it didn't interfere with your trip Any sort of tropical storm is quite a event. I have probably been through 10-15. I won't bore you with alot of war stories but expect the unexpected for sure. We did as we arrived on June 15th. Had beautiful calm Gulf waters on Sun-Wed. And still a partly sunny day on Thurs/Fri but not in the water so much. Saturday morning we walked the beach before it got nasty. Got some good surf video. Saturday night sleeping was hard. The house we rented was a short block from the beach and our room was on the front side. The wind and rain all night kept me up. We went inland on Sunday as our rental was up. We did not like the squall bands that came through. I hate tornado watches in the overnight hours and that wind driven rain kept me my nerves on edge. We are in Georgia now as we left this morning to head home. I am hoping to get a wonderful nights sleep as the last two nights were rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 The following are rainfall totals from Tropical Storm Debby since Sunday and ending at 10 am Tuesday morning... ... Northeast Florida... Jacksonville Intl Arpt... 10.67 Jacksonville Beach... 12.12 Sanderson... 15.26 Live Oak... 14.74 Glen St Mary... 12.02 Macclenny... 10.36 Orange Park... 9.81 Callahan... 9.70 Keystone Heights... 9.67 Fort White... 9.08 Trenton... 8.74 Gainesville... 10.58 ... Southeast Georgia... Kingsland... 11.33 St Marys... 8.17 Nahunta... 7.33 Hortense... 4.98 Manor... 4.30 St Simons... 4.28 Waycross... 4.26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 During TS Debby Redington Beach, FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Very poor performance by the Euro, abyssmal might be a nice adjective. The storm went the opposite direction of its operational and ensemble runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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