NavarreDon Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Great thread on the main board but, felt like the SE should have it's own. Interesting quote from NHC Disc. DEBBY IS THE EARLIEST 4TH STORM IN THE HISTORICAL RECORDS... SURPASSING HURRICANE DENNIS OF 2005...WHICH BECAME A TROPICAL STORM ON JULY 5TH. Here are some links for newer members. Please feel free to add to them. http://www.nhc.noaa....-daynl#contents http://www.wundergro...1204_model.html http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 All that tropical juice down in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico but a massive road block (trough) that is settling into the Interior Southeast will prevent of that moisture from getting much farther north than Interstate 10. With the exception of Lee (last year) there has always been either a massive trough to shove it off the Florida East Coast or a massive expanding ridge to send it towards Texas. Why can't we get just get a massive Bermuda Ridge with storms coming moving around the western edge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Pump the ridge Debby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Been raining along the west coast of Florida all day! I've seen about 10 minutes of sunshine since Tuesday night, when I arrived here. Great way to spend a vacation! Tracking two tropical systems Now... I have to drive through it all on the way back to Columbus tomorrow... Hell, at the rate we're going, I wouldn't be surprised to see this thing come more north than others are thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 ummmm...EURO just jumped from Texas to New Orleans overnight. GFS has refused to take Debby westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 ummmm...EURO just jumped from Texas to New Orleans overnight. GFS has refused to take Debby westward. Here is part of the 4:00 am CDT discussion from the NHC: WITH INFRARED IMAGERY THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH PARTIALLY EXPOSED...HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND THE FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE ABOUT 50 MILES APART. MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR 360/3. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS STORM IS EXTREMELY CHALLENGING. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES WAS BASED ON A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH WOULD CAUSE DEBBY TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO COAST IN SEVERAL DAYS. THAT TRACK SCENARIO WAS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN THE BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS. HOWEVER...THE 0000 RUN OF THAT MODEL HAS SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL HAS ALSO SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT. IN FACT...ONLY THE HWRF MODEL IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS...AND EVEN IT IS TO THE NORTH OF THEM. THEREFORE AN UNUSUALLY LARGE RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE NHC FORECAST IS REQUIRED...AND ADDITIONAL SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORY PACKAGES. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I'm starting to wonder if maybe Debby has long term plans of hanging out in the Gulf...I 'm not sure there will be enough influence by the developing trough in the east to pull her across Florida. On the other hand, maybe Debby will interfere with the ridge that's expected to develop later this week across the Southeast and just wonder around the Northern Gulf Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I am surprised a TOR watch box has not been issued for the FL west coast. Just had a warning in Charlotte County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 As of the 7:00 am CDT adv. More areas added to the TS Warnings: WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN * THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Poor Pensacola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Anyone in Apalahicola here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Anyone in Apalahicola here? As a matter of fact I am. I'm spending the next 7 days a few miles west of Apalachicola in Cape San Blas. We are currently trapped on the cape since the road into Port St Joe is closed due to the bay flooding. It's been pouring rain since about midnight with steady 30-40 mph winds. We went down to the beach this morning and the waves are up in the dunes. I would have taken some pictures but I don't want to risk my camera. Walking into the wind was quite the experience. If its going to rain on vacation I would rather it do this. The bad news is the power has been flickering for 2 hours and we have to entertain my 21 month old son. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 As a matter of fact I am. I'm spending the next 7 days a few miles west of Apalachicola in Cape San Blas. We are currently trapped on the cape since the road into Port St Joe is closed due to the bay flooding. It's been pouring rain since about midnight with steady 30-40 mph winds. We went down to the beach this morning and the waves are up in the dunes. I would have taken some pictures but I don't want to risk my camera. Walking into the wind was quite the experience. If its going to rain on vacation I would rather it do this. The bad news is the power has been flickering for 2 hours and we have to entertain my 21 month old son. I have stayed at the State Park there many times. That rd washes over at the Stump Hole if someone sneezes! It also has a tendancy to wash out there. Great place to watch a smaller storm, strength wise for sure. Is the gas staion at Scallop Cove open? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I have stayed at the State Park there many times. That rd washes over at the Stump Hole if someone sneezes! It also has a tendancy to wash out there. Great place to watch a smaller storm, strength wise for sure. Is the gas staion at Scallop Cove open? I just got back from Scallop Cove. They had a Panama City news crew filming a backhoe working on the rocks at the stump hole. The waves were crashing up against him so it was pretty cool. The bay was up to the road on the other side but the road was fine. Scallop Cove only had two workers for the day since the roads are closed. The wind has picked up real good in the last few minutes. I'm trying to get some video from inside but I'm sure it won't do it justice. This almost reminds me a strong winter storm in the high country only with rain instead of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I just got back from Scallop Cove. They had a Panama City news crew filming a backhoe working on the rocks at the stump hole. The waves were crashing up against him so it was pretty cool. The bay was up to the road on the other side but the road was fine. Scallop Cove only had two workers for the day since the roads are closed. The wind has picked up real good in the last few minutes. I'm trying to get some video from inside but I'm sure it won't do it justice. This almost reminds me a strong winter storm in the high country only with rain instead of snow. You staying at Barrier Dunes condos by any chance....stayed there many years in the 80's and 90's....Very Familiar with the area you are describing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 As a matter of fact I am. I'm spending the next 7 days a few miles west of Apalachicola in Cape San Blas. We are currently trapped on the cape since the road into Port St Joe is closed due to the bay flooding. It's been pouring rain since about midnight with steady 30-40 mph winds. We went down to the beach this morning and the waves are up in the dunes. I would have taken some pictures but I don't want to risk my camera. Walking into the wind was quite the experience. If its going to rain on vacation I would rather it do this. The bad news is the power has been flickering for 2 hours and we have to entertain my 21 month old son. Very cool. Gusting almost to 50 mph now as per official obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 ummm...EURO just shifted from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle. EDIT Then plows into the south-east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Going to keep my weenie-ish thoughts outside of the main thread Honestly dont know what to expect down near Orange Beach. I'm pretty excited as I've never been in a TS, other than remnants passing through Atlanta. Models are such a crapshoot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 We just finished our vacation, we are from MD. We left Anna Maria Island this morning and are at my Parents house in Palmetto. Last night on the Island was interesting. Just saw on the local news that county police are telling people to not visit Anna Maria. Going to be heading back home tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Euro has no chance of verifying, because it gives ATL rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 I just got back from Scallop Cove. They had a Panama City news crew filming a backhoe working on the rocks at the stump hole. The waves were crashing up against him so it was pretty cool. The bay was up to the road on the other side but the road was fine. Scallop Cove only had two workers for the day since the roads are closed. The wind has picked up real good in the last few minutes. I'm trying to get some video from inside but I'm sure it won't do it justice. This almost reminds me a strong winter storm in the high country only with rain instead of snow. Very envious of you! I might have to agh....well.... run down to Destin to take care of the boat. We just finished our vacation, we are from MD. We left Anna Maria Island this morning and are at my Parents house in Palmetto. Last night on the Island was interesting. Just saw on the local news that county police are telling people to not visit Anna Maria. Going to be heading back home tomorrow. Hope you got to see some weather & it didn't interfere with your trip Going to keep my weenie-ish thoughts outside of the main thread Honestly dont know what to expect down near Orange Beach. I'm pretty excited as I've never been in a TS, other than remnants passing through Atlanta. Models are such a crapshoot right now. Any sort of tropical storm is quite a event. I have probably been through 10-15. I won't bore you with alot of war stories but expect the unexpected for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I have had off and on light to sometimes moderate rain for 24 hours from the eastern wrap around. Nothing of great significance other than what is very rare rainfall overnight IMBY. Hardly any breeze to speak off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Euro has no chance of verifying, because it gives ATL rain. GFS has been consistent on Florida for days. Never going west into Texas like the EURO and other reliable models. Something makes me think the EURO is still playing catch up to the GFS and will eventually throw Debby out to sea after crossing Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 ummmm...EURO just jumped from Texas to New Orleans overnight. GFS has refused to take Debby westward. Here is part of the 4:00 am CDT discussion from the NHC: THAT TRACK SCENARIO WAS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN THE BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS Someone hasn't been paying attention. As a forecaster, I'm bound to adhere strictly to no biases....that said, I can't help but snicker and wonder what in the world folks are doing still bashing GFS , and claiming somehow the old ECMWF, the former superior model, when clearly the GFS has led the way for 18 consecutive months. I think old ways of thinking die really hard. Paying close attention to the Southeast in general, because I have to , and because it's my favorite forecasting region, those verification charts showing ECMWF on top are nothing but kindling. Ever since just after the Christmas 2010 storm, the GFS has shown every major weather event in our region in GENERAL....I know some areas it hasn't been quite so accurate, but in general, I've noticed it picked up on MCC events, if you know how to look for their beginnings, any damming events, even surface temp forecasting, when the GFS was really, really bad back in the day. Things have really changed hard, but like I said, the old mentality is still very much alive. Thank God I'm unbiased on go with which model makes the most sense and obviously GFS has the hot hand really. Anyway, full free update at wxsouth.com if you're interested. Click "register" and then "public" or "current weather". What's more interesting to me is the upcoming heat wave late week. The Carolinas and Virginia are going to bake. GFS shows some very rare air of +27 degrees at 850...we normally get our heat waves at +24 and a ridge of 594dm. There is good westerly low level flow to aid in the downslope warmth in the Piedmont, but as always, something could pop up to shave a couple degrees off potentially some of the hottest air in years. High cirrus clouds, ground moisture etc. I'm rooting against this. I haven't been 100 degrees in a couple Summers now..and don't miss it a bit. By the way, for the those that know me and my drought situation and mongering, I'm getting tons of rain here...it's never really stopped, other than the dry Winter. Doing just fine, and getting daily storms pretty regularly. I have to say it's very nice to feel "normal" after over decade of truly getting skipped in northwest flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Nice outflow just passed through - too bad it isn't pulling any weather along with it. Really hoping for something with the frontal passage tomorrow evening ... we've only had 1.39" this month, and will be gone over next weekend's heat wave, with no one to water the gardens for us. I don't know anyone, family or friends, who will spend 4 hours a day watering by hand what I do during dry conditions. When your retired life is your gardens, yeah, you fret over such petty things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 You staying at Barrier Dunes condos by any chance....stayed there many years in the 80's and 90's....Very Familiar with the area you are describing... We are staying in a house on the south facing part of the cape. Today has been awesome but if this thing stalls it will grow old very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I was in Sarasota up until this morning. Here's what I posted in the main forum: I just got done driving through much of that rain in Florida on my way back to Columbus, GA from Sarasota, FL. I left before the worst of it hit. Here's a view of Siesta Key Beach, the one I went to a few days ago... The Lifeguard towers are typically 20 ft from the water's edge... https://www.facebook...&type=1 Here's another of else where on Siesta Key: https://www.facebook...&type=1 The weekend meteorologist at ABC 7 in Sarasota went to Ringling Bridge, the one that leads to Longboat Key, and shot this video: https://www.facebook...479213778771809 I know some have said that the GFS didn't win completely, but I'd respectfully disagree. Yes, it did have a few solutions cutting it across Florida, but a good majority had it in the Eastern Gulf, which is where it is now. It never bit on the Texas solution like almost every other model did. It's done incredibly well this season versus the Euro. As Robert mentioned, the GFS has done really well over the past year plus. It nailed Beryl earlier in May, showed Debby forming over a week out and even had it coming ashore near PCB, which is where it's close to heading! I would know, I sent a tweet about it to a viewer who has a house in Florida and wanted to know. The trough ended up a bit stronger, the center of circulation was more east than most of the other models had it and it kept trudging north-northeast. I even mentioned a few days ago in the main forum to watch how far north Debby goes. It's heading north and COULD get stuck in the Gulf, though I think it may make a rare Big Bend Landfall. Also, my chief just "happened" to head to PCB and is posting videos off and on: https://www.facebook.com/WRBL3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Oh what ~9 hours (if that?) can do: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Just saw a waterspout webcam "chasing" Coincided pretty well with: marked the webcam location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 It hasn't been really that bad here in Fort Lauderdale. On and off rain squalls but it hasn't rained in awhile. Pretty nice day actually! I'll take the clouds over 90+ any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.