Stebo Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 OK OK Alek you win! I skimmed through quickly...didn't look close enough...I saw someone else mentioning that Detroit will not reach 100...Powerball! The source of your information should have been a sign to ignore it. As for the run itself, as hot as it will be here and Chicago, Memphis Paducah and St Louis are going to be scorched for at least a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Not to get carried away, which in posting this I probably am, but if we're going to shoot for the stars...this would be the benchmark in Indiana I would think. Bloomington (July 5-17, 1936): 103, 106, 108, 108, 103, 107, 106, 108, 108, 110, 110, 102, 100 Evansville (July 7-15, 1936): 106, 103, 104, 104, 103, 107, 108, 106, 106 Indianapolis (July 7-15, 1936): 101, 104, 103, 105, 104, 103, 103, 106, 103 (bookended by 99, 98 on the front and 96, 98 on the back) Lafayette (July 5-17, 1936): 104, 103, 108, 109, 103, 107, 108, 110, 110, 111, 105, 101, 103 South Bend (July 7-15, 1936): 102, 106, 102, 106, 105, 105, 106, 108, 100 Terre Haute (July 5-17, 1936): 104, 106, 107, 107, 103, 107, 107, 108, 108, 110, 106, 101 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Epic. The extreme heat never really leaves especially for areas to our south. "Could" be one sizzling 4th of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 OK OK Alek you win! I skimmed through quickly...didn't look close enough...I saw someone else mentioning that Detroit will not reach 100...Powerball! If you're going to cite my posts, don't take them out of context... 100*F+ is unlikely on Thursday for Detroit. The potential for Cirrostratus (like last Saturday) is pretty high. 12z NAM is out to lunch. Note all of the moisture around 500mb... When there's that much moisture around 500mb, there's a good chance there will be plenty of cirrus debris around. Recall last Saturday when we were expected to reach the upper 80s/low 90s and were capped off in the low-mid 80s due to the cirrostratus. DTX discussed this further in their morning discussion, which explains their conservatively forecasted highs for Thursday. http://forecast.weat...on=4&glossary=1 [quote]REGARDING THE MUCH DRONED ABOUT THURSDAY PERIOD...THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO PASS OVERHEAD...HERALDING THE ARRIVAL OF AN ULTRA IMPRESSIVE MIXED LAYER/AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. IT IS THIS WARM AIR ALOFT THAT LEADS TO THE QUESTION MARKS CONCERNING THURSDAY HIGHS. THE NEW TWIST OFFERED BY THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE IS THE EXPECTATION THAT A COVERAGE OF CLOUDS (SEE ECMWF 500MB RH) WILL SWEEP ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NOW HOW OPAQUE THESE CLOUDS WILL BE IS ANYONES GUESS. HOWEVER...TYPICALLY WITNESS SHORTWAVE MATERIAL AND MID TO HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS PILE UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THESE RIDGES. SO...PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT. STILL DON/T THINK IT WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES MUCH GIVEN A WELL MIXED PROFILE...BUT IT SHOULD LIMIT THE RUNAWAY BEHAVIOR OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. SO THE APPROACH THIS ISSUANCE WAS TO MASSAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES WITH A SOLID LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. WITH THE TANGIBLE INCREASE OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY ALOFT AND INSTABILITY BUILDING IN THE MIDLEVELS DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE WELL CAPPED...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE NONETHELESS. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000-3500 J/KG SIGNIFIES THIS THREAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...AS ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL FIRE WILL CARRY AN IMMEDIATE SEVERE RISK.[/quote] That said, if full mixing is realized in combination with the dry grounds, I do think 100*F+ is possible locally. But given the above factors (with us being under the NW flow of the moderately strong upper jet, thus plenty of potential vorticity advection and the ridge flattening as it moves in), 100*F+ doesn't seem likely and low-mid 90s seems like a more reasonable forecast at this time. To sum it all up, I'm looking beyond the 850mb and 2m temps. Never mind how unusual 100*F+ weather is in Detroit from the get go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 From LMK: In light of the raw data and verydry ground, our forecast highs of 98-99 in the Bluegrass and 102-105west of I-65 may even be a bit conservative High temps have been running 2-3 degrees warmer than forecast for a couple of weeks. Would not be surprised at all if we get to 105+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 Curious to see whether we can get 850 mb temps of 30C at ILX or DVN on Thursday. It's extremely difficult to do east of the Plains and I've never seen it on a sounding in those parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 FWIW, 12z NAM 2m temp output for Hill City, KS was 112. It is 113 there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Impressive to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 12z Euro, straight through to the end of the run, is a nightmare. Epic. The extreme heat never really leaves especially for areas to our south. LAF is very close to 7 consecutive 100+ days on that run. Chicago ends up with 9 consecutive 90+ days(run ends) and 3-4 100+ days. STL with 9 consecutive 100+ days(run ends). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Geez the 18z NAM is quite warmer at both 6/12z Thursday with 850mb temps, pocket of 32 deg C across southern IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Looks like some bad timing for the QCA as far as full potential with this heat wave. The best part of the heat dome passes overhead tomorrow night and early Thursday before settling south by afternoon. May still make a run at 100, but if the timing were a little slower we would have had a crack at 104+. EDIT: The Euro has sped things up quite a bit regarding the max 850 temps over Iowa/northwest Illinois. It had been very consistent for several days so that sort of sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 Looking forward to seeing the RAP when it comes in range. Given its tendencies I wouldn't be shocked if it has a large area of 110-115+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Looking forward to seeing the RAP when it comes in range. Given its tendencies I wouldn't be shocked if it has a large area of 110-115+. Man you guys are gonna roast down there Thursday. Looks like the maximum heat swath will run from northern/central MO through central IL, and into Indiana right through the LAF area. Looks like Quincy/Springfield/Bloomington have the greatest potential that day. I'd guess 105-108 in that area. I'll go with 104 for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 Man you guys are gonna roast down there Thursday. Looks like the maximum heat swath will run from northern/central MO through central IL, and into Indiana right through the LAF area. Looks like Quincy/Springfield/Bloomington have the greatest potential that day. I'd guess 105-108 in that area. I'll go with 104 for LAF. Hottest wx I've ever experienced was in Phoenix but this has a chance to be about the hottest I've been in here. A lot of our 100+ days are squeakers of the 100/101 variety...not this time in all likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Geez the 18z NAM is quite warmer at both 6/12z Thursday with 850mb temps, pocket of 32 deg C across southern IA. 105/99 on Thur/Fri for ORD on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 From the general discussion thread... Just another look at the central plains...dew points in southern NE between 73-77 currently where the NAM only had a max of 70, GFS much closer. As nice as higher dews would be for rain, the heat indices would be unbearable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Okay, my prediction looks to blow chunks............ If you can't beat'em, join 'em, eh Tim? I'm not looking for triple digits this far east, but betting on seeing 97-98 Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 That is showing 105 for Findlay on Thursday.... yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Hoosier, where did you get that particular NAM 4k temperature picture from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Hoosier, where did you get that particular NAM 4k temperature picture from? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewallhires.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Thanks hm8. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 643 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012 ...INCREASED FIRE DANGER ON THURSDAY... .VERY HOT TEMPERATURES OF 100 TO 105 COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 25 PERCENT AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER RISK ON THURSDAY. INZ005>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016- 024-025-271000- /O.NEW.KIWX.FW.A.0001.120628T1400Z-120629T0000Z/ ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL- FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH- HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH- DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- 643 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012 /543 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012/ ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR MOST OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 001 WILLIAMS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 002 FULTON OH...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 004 DEFIANCE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 005 ELKHART...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 005 HENRY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 006 LAGRANGE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 007 STEUBEN... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 008 NOBLE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 009 DE KALB... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 012 STARKE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 013 PULASKI... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 014 MARSHALL...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 015 FULTON IN... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 015 PAULDING...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 016 KOSCIUSKO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 016 PUTNAM...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 017 WHITLEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 018 ALLEN IN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 020 WHITE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 022 CASS IN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 023 MIAMI...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 024 WABASH...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 024 VAN WERT...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 025 HUNTINGTON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 025 ALLEN OH...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 026 WELLS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 027 ADAMS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 032 GRANT...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 033 BLACKFORD AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 034 JAY. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * TIMING...MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING THURSDAY. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 20 TO 25 PERCENT. * TEMPERATURES...100 TO 105 DEGREES. * LIGHTNING...NONE. * IMPACTS...NEARLY ALL NORTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES REMAIN UNDER BURN BANS DUE TO THE THREAT OF WILDFIRES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 This has potential to be the hottest day i have ever worked in construction outdoors! And i have been in construction since 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Hill City Kansas reached 115, which broke their all-time June record which was just set the other day. Models look a touch warmer tomorrow so could envision them reaching 116 or 117. 117 is their all-time high temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 My point forecast is still holding at 98° for Thursday, low ~ 73°. That would be a real bugger - having brush fires to contend with during this heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Looking forward to seeing the RAP when it comes in range. Given its tendencies I wouldn't be shocked if it has a large area of 110-115+. Are we at least keeping dews down? I haven't had time lately to look at anything. The desert like atmosphere is much easier to handle than the normal indiana tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Hill City Kansas reached 115, which broke their all-time June record which was just set the other day. Models look a touch warmer tomorrow so could envision them reaching 116 or 117. 117 is their all-time high temperature. Setting and an all-time month record and then breaking it and sertting a new one the next day....and then breaking it again and setting a new one again the next ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Are we at least keeping dews down? I haven't had time lately to look at anything. The desert like atmosphere is much easier to handle than the normal indiana tropics. Probably 50s/60s at least until the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Hill City Kansas reached 115, which broke their all-time June record which was just set the other day. Models look a touch warmer tomorrow so could envision them reaching 116 or 117. 117 is their all-time high temperature. Goodland KS (110) also broke their June monthly record. Also, a new all-time high at McCook, NE (115). RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 718 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012 ...RECORDS BROKEN ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 110 DEGREES WAS SET AT GOODLAND KANSAS TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 107 DEGREES SET IN 1971. THIS IS ALSO THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF JUNE, BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 109 DEGREES SET JUNE 18, 1936 AND TIED JUNE 24, 2012. A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 115 DEGREES WAS SET AT HILL CITY KANSAS TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 110 DEGREES SET IN 1980. THIS IS ALSO THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF JUNE, BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 114 DEGREES SET JUNE 30, 1933 AND TIED JUNE 24, 2012. A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 106 DEGREES WAS SET AT BURLINGTON COLORADO TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 102 DEGREES SET IN 1990. A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 115 DEGREES WAS SET AT MCCOOK NEBRASKA TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 103 DEGREES SET IN 1998. THIS IS ALSO THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF JUNE, BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 112 DEGREES SET JUNE 5, 1933. IN ADDITION THIS IS THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT THIS STATION. THE OLD RECORD WAS 114 DEGREES SET JULY 20, 1932. AN UNOFFICIAL RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 DEGREES WAS SET AT YUMA COLORADO TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 103 DEGREES SET IN 1971. THIS IS ALSO THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF JUNE, BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 108 DEGREES SET JUNE 19, 2012. THIS READING IS FROM AN UNOFFICIAL WEATHER STATION. OFFICIAL DATA ARE REPORTED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS AT THE END OF THE MONTH. AN UNOFFICIAL RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 DEGREES WAS SET AT TRIBUNE KANSAS TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 105 DEGREES SET IN 1936. THIS READING IS FROM AN UNOFFICIAL WEATHER STATION. OFFICIAL DATA ARE REPORTED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS AT THE END OF THE MONTH. AN UNOFFICIAL RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 112 DEGREES WAS SET AT COLBY KANSAS TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 108 DEGREES SET IN 1936. THIS IS ALSO THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF JUNE, BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 111 DEGREES SET JUNE 24, 2012. THIS READING IS FROM AN UNOFFICIAL WEATHER STATION. OFFICIAL DATA ARE REPORTED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS AT THE END OF THE MONTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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