Geos Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Point now only 98 for Thursday Same here. My Friday temp has dropped to 86°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 a little OT but just how reliable are temp readings from the '30s...are we talking about some inflated Cromartie style stuff here or are they more or less as good as what we get now? I believe they're legit from where they were measured...key word being where. Take for instance Indy's official site for most of the 1930's. The thermometer was 194 feet above ground (and measured downtown) versus roughly (not exactly sure) 5 feet of present day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 I believe they're legit from where they were measured...key word being where. Take for instance Indy's official site for most of the 1930's. The thermometer was 194 feet above ground (and measured downtown) versus roughly (not exactly sure) 5 feet of present day. Thanks This looks really suspicious...going to toss the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 a little OT but just how reliable are temp readings from the '30s...are we talking about some inflated Cromartie style stuff here or are they more or less as good as what we get now? As good as we get now. The 1930s heatwaves were fascinating and there are tons of documentation/stories on them. Michigans hottest temp was from July 1936 in Mio (northern lower) of 111F. Detroit has hit 100F+ just 34 times since records began in 1871, and 14 of those occurred in the 1930s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Thanks This looks really suspicious...going to toss the 12z GFS Yeah ... I had to look at the time stamp for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 First call for LAF, no doubt subject to revision given out period and potential rarity of event Wed: 90 Thu: 103 Fri: 100 new call Wed: 91 Thu: 106 Fri: 100 A little concerned with the very warm air aloft that tomorrow could end up a bit warmer than I have, but models insist on relatively shallow mixing to around 900 mb. Left Friday alone for now but a bit lower confidence depending on clouds/timing of front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 Wild to see that 110F on the MET for EVV on Thursday. I'd shave a couple degrees at this point given the thermal profiles but they are in the heart of the drought area so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 new call Wed: 91 Thu: 106 Fri: 100 A little concerned with the very warm air aloft that tomorrow could end up a bit warmer than I have, but models insist on relatively shallow mixing to around 900 mb. Left Friday alone for now but a bit lower confidence depending on clouds/timing of front. I'll ride my original calls for Wed and Thu, but bump Friday. Wed: 92 Thu: 102 Fri: 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 I'll ride my original calls for Wed and Thu, but bump Friday. Wed: 92 Thu: 102 Fri: 100 I was tempted to go a degree or two higher believe it or not. The 12z NAM is a little better with mixing (around 850 mb), and let's just cease all discussion of the GFS at this point. Confidence is bolstered by model consistency in extreme event (sans GFS), ongoing drought and airmass performance out west where numerous records have been tied/broken. I hate heat as much as the next guy but I'm looking forward to Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 This looks really suspicious...going to toss the 12z GFS GFS 2M temps are rarely correct in the warm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 GFS 2M temps are rarely correct, especially in the warm season. That certainly explains some of it but it's a good deal cooler at 850 as well. Either way, it's an outlier and I don't see any reason not to ride the NAM/Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 I was tempted to go a degree or two higher believe it or not. The 12z NAM is a little better with mixing (around 850 mb), and let's just cease all discussion of the GFS at this point. Confidence is bolstered by model consistency in extreme event (sans GFS), ongoing drought and airmass performance out west where numerous records have been tied/broken. I hate heat as much as the next guy but I'm looking forward to Thursday. Swing for the fences my friend. What's your updated call on EVV? Might as well make it public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 100*F+ is unlikely on Thursday for Detroit. The potential for Cirrostratus (like last Saturday) is pretty high. 12z NAM is out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 Swing for the fences my friend. What's your updated call on EVV? Might as well make it public. Thu: 107 Fri: 109 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Thu: 107 Fri: 109 lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Thu: 107 Fri: 109 I'm disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 ^lol Sorta hard to pull the trigger on 110 at a specific location. These numbers would already beat June records by a decent margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 12z Euro now has 100 in LAF on Saturday. Mercy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 12z Euro now has 100 in LAF on Saturday. Mercy. Tuesday...and possibly Monday too. The same goes for Chicago. Ducks on the pond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 I guess latest EURO is low 90s (barely) for Detroit....this sucks ass.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 I guess latest EURO is low 90s (barely) for Detroit....this sucks ass.. you guessed wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 you guessed wrong ?, Well, I'm not sure where to check out the hourly, between hour 48 and 72...? What do you use for hourly output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 ?, Well, I'm not sure where to check out the hourly, between hour 48 and 72...? What do you use for hourly output? you didn't even look but felt the need to make up a lie and complain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 ?, Well, I'm not sure where to check out out the hourly, between hour 48 and 72...? What do you use for hourly output? Lol... So what your really saying is the euro says we'll be "only" in the low 90s.....at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 12z Euro, straight through to the end of the run, is a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 12z Euro, straight through to the end of the run, is a nightmare. Epic. The extreme heat never really leaves especially for areas to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Epic. The extreme heat never really leaves especially for areas to our south. disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 OK OK Alek you win! I skimmed through quickly...didn't look close enough...I saw someone else mentioning that Detroit will not reach 100...Powerball! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 OK OK Alek you win! I skimmed through quickly...didn't look close enough...I saw someone else mentioning that Detroit will not reach 100...Powerball! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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