hawkeye_wx Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Our nws and locals are only predicting low to mid 90s Wed/Thu... which is hot enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Thursday starting to come into NAM range. 2m maps have a large area of 105+ and a small area of 110 in central IL. "Only" around 100F for LAF but with very moist low levels (mid 70's dewpoints) which don't seem terribly likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Thursday starting to come into NAM range. 2m maps have a large area of 105+ and a small area of 110 in central IL. "Only" around 100F for LAF but with very moist low levels (mid 70's dewpoints) which don't seem terribly likely. Looking at a forecast sounding for UIN, it shows 850 mb temps in excess of 28C with mixing to and even above that level, so the upper 100/near 110 output on the 2m map would not be all that unrealistic should the forecast sounding pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Raw NAM BUFKIT has 94/102 on Wed/Thur for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Raw NAM BUFKIT has 94/102 on Wed/Thur for ORD. 89/102 for DTW...have a hard time believing that. I'm leaning more towards 98 for DTW. However, the Euro would give some credence to that forecast temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 GFS still leaning cooler especially north. Seems like most offices are leaning against it if not outright tossing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 I'm getting that vibe. Might be time to punt on 1988 and start looking at 1934, or...1936. Not sure why -NAO is focused on so much in summer. The correlation doesn't work like it does in winter, not that that's full proof either. Last summer had a JJA average of -1.1 and 2010, which was warmer, had a -0.8 average. Going back further, 1995 was -2.1. So yeah. I am more so hitting upon my area, and it is more so a point of it being hotter than it has been. Not saying it can't be above average with a -NAO, it is just easier with a +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 NAM has Evansville in the upper 100's on Thursday. I don't think there has been an ASOS reading of 106 in Indiana since FWA's in 1988. Even going a little more conservative would suggest it could be challenged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 NAM has Evansville in the upper 100's on Thursday. I don't think there has been an ASOS reading of 106 in Indiana since FWA's in 1988. Even going a little more conservative would suggest it could be challenged. Euro was also hinting at it extending into Friday for Southern IL/IN and Northern/Western KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Euro was also hinting at it extending into Friday for Southern IL/IN and Northern/Western KY. Yeah, Friday was actually hotter in those areas on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Watching Skilling's midday forecast, I find it rather interesting that he seems to be putting a lot of faith into the recent GFS progs for Thursday into Friday. In particular, he referenced the 2" PWAT values put out by the 12z GFS for Thursday a few times. Personally, I can't quite see how that will verify. I'll have to wait and see what he says in his seven-day forecast, but he has so far said "near 100" on Thursday, somewhat conservative relative to others. Edit: Skilling says in his seven-day: Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday: 93/98/93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Temperature sample for Wednesday. Most local forecasters saying upper 90s to near 100° for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 GFS still leaning cooler especially north. Seems like most offices are leaning against it if not outright tossing it. It has the main thermal ridge/axis much farther south into the STL/EVV area, compared to the ECMWF which has it up in the DVN/ORD area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 It has the main thermal ridge/axis much farther south into the STL/EVV area, compared to the ECMWF which has it up in the DVN/ORD area. It sorta doesn't make sense for the ridge to get flattened so quickly. Stranger things have happened I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Watching Skilling's midday forecast, I find it rather interesting that he seems to be putting a lot of faith into the recent GFS progs for Thursday into Friday. In particular, he referenced the 2" PWAT values put out by the 12z GFS for Thursday a few times. Personally, I can't quite see how that will verify. I'll have to wait and see what he says in his seven-day forecast, but he has so far said "near 100" on Thursday, somewhat conservative relative to others. He goes with for 93/98/93 Wed-Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 for whoever didn't read LOT's AFD MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AGAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS A SWATH OF 28-29C 850MB TEMPS COVERS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. AGAIN...UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND WITH DEEP LAYER MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH OR EXCEED 100F OVER THE AREA...AND IF THAT 29C AIR AT 850MB COULD FULLY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...TEMPS COULD ACTUALLY REACH OR EXCEED 105-107 OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. NOT QUITE READY TO GO THAT FAR IN THE MORNING FORECAST...THE VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF/GEM/DGEX IN ADVERTISING THIS WARMING TREND...WITH NOT FLIP-FLOPPING IN THE FORECAST...LEADS TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN LEANING CLOSER TO THE WARMER END OF MODEL SOLUTIONS RATHER THAN THE COOLER GFS. SO...WILL CARRY HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM 100F TO 103F OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 It seems like the Euro may be inching toward a slightly faster fropa, but it's very subtle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 NAM has Evansville in the upper 100's on Thursday. I don't think there has been an ASOS reading of 106 in Indiana since FWA's in 1988. Even going a little more conservative would suggest it could be challenged. Following up on this...I can't find any "official" reading above 106 in Indiana since 1936. If anybody can pull it off it would be EVV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Might also have to watch if any storms affect heating potential as the GFS has been blowing up storms by 0z along that frontal boundary for the last 3 runs now. Just something to think about about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 EVV is 94 right now with 850 mb temps that were progged around 18-19C. NAM/ECMWF have this similar deep mixing regime later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 EVV is 94 right now with 850 mb temps that were progged around 18-19C. NAM/ECMWF have this similar deep mixing regime later this week. Similar to what happened at ORD yesterday when it hit 94. 850mb temp of about 17C and mixing to about 800mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 IND going with 100 here on Thursday but saying they are being conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Following up on this...I can't find any "official" reading above 106 in Indiana since 1936. If anybody can pull it off it would be EVV. Since 1988 you mean. FWA hit 106º on June 25, 1988. Never mind, read that wrong. Speaking of EVV, their highest temperature ever recorded is 111º on July 28, 1930. And if we want to get crazy, 116º is the all time Indiana record (official) in Collegeville on July 14, 1936. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Since 1988 you mean. FWA hit 106º on June 25, 1988. Speaking of EVV, their highest temperature ever recorded is 111º on July 28, 1930. And if we want to get crazy, 116º is the all time Indiana record (official) in Collegeville on July 14, 1936. No, above. I guess I should've worded it better...like 107 or higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 No, above. I guess I should've worded it better...like 107 or higher. Yeah I read that wrong. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Found one Hoosier, via the Utah Climate website. HUF hit 107º on July 14, 1954. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Found one Hoosier, via the Utah Climate website. HUF hit 107º on July 14, 1954. Interesting. That one isn't on the NOWdata on the NWS website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 DTX raises highs in the 96-99 range for thurs, mentioning a few spots may hit 100. Lower 90s Fri, around 90 sat, upper 80s sun, with GRR mentioning increasing temps early next week as ridge rebuilds. Also, DTX mentioned drought conditions will worsen, with little convection expected during frontal passage due to limited GOM moisture. FWIW, Euro showing upper 90s on sat for SE MI and points south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Interesting. That one isn't on the NOWdata on the NWS website. http://www1.ncdc.noa...E15689958A1.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 New euro has high temps in st louis at or above 105 from this Thursday thru next Wednesday. I might just kill myself now so my body is nice and cold by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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