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Late June/Early July Extreme Heat Episode


Hoosier

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This is very unusual. The high today was 86 at DTW but 87 at Port Hope, a town on the eastern coast of the thumb, which is usually under the influence of a Lake Breeze, given it's great exposure to the surrounding Lake Huron. Considering the forecast high for DTW was 98, this is quite a rarity, especially during a heat wave. Timining/placement of convection/cloud cover is a forecaster's worst nightmare in these situations.

Forecast high/low today was 98/74, actual was 86/69, a huge bust. Actually, since Monday the forecasts have busted every single day, but with convection/clouds, even the best forecaster can be made victim to the tricks of mother Nature.

Here are DTW's forecast highs (based on that mornings 4am fcst) and actual highs since Monday

........DTW........Mon.....Tue.....Wed.....Thu

Forecast High.....89.......95......98.......98

Actual High........94.......85.....102.......86

I think it will be hilarious if we hit 100F tomorrow, the f6 will alternate 80s, 100s, 80s, 100s :lol:

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The last few runs of the NAM have been slow enough with the front to give Chicago a 100+ on Sat...and the 0z run continues to show that.

This run is very warm for Sat for many areas, with a large area of 105+

It has 100 at ORD by 10 AM :lol:

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Yep, low to mid 100s on Saturday, actually Saturday may potentially be Detroit's hottest day if the NAM's slow progression of the front proves correct. Tomorrow, I'll go with 101 for DTW and 100 for DET, and potentially 104-105 for Saturday...very close to tying the all time high of 105.

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A summary of historic Chicago heat and humidity: http://www.crh.noaa....=85091&source=0

Interesting in that Midway, which was the official Chicago station for many years, torched to 109F on July 24, 1934, but is not the official high, as the official Chicago station "only" hit 105 that day, July 24, 1934. While 4F is not a huge amount, 109F looks so much more gawdy than 105F (I believe Chicago, Detroit, and Milwaukee all have 105F on July 24, 1934 as their alltime high).

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ORD is 91/73 (HI 100) at 10pm...it's amazing to step outside into darkness with that degree of warmth.

That is 2 degrees ahead of last night at this time both with temp and dewpoint. It will be interesting to watch the dews tomorrow...besides trying to time the lake breeze there is also the question of how much daytime lowering of dews will occur. Either one of those factors going unfavorably could be enough to thwart the run at the all-time record.

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The setup on Saturday is similar to last Thursday. A slow moving east/west cold front pooled dews to near 80 along it and produced very high heat index values. The same thing could happen again on Saturday with temperatures potentially even warmer than last Thursday.

Indeed.

At first it looked like tomorrow would be the day similar to last Thur, but now it appears as if it might be Sat.

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Seriously considering not going into work tomorrow since I load in a warehouse. 105 would be just way too unbearable to handle. It's unreal to see us hitting those crazy Dust Bowl temps, but I also wonder how much the dry conditions are working into pushing temps up a degree or two. That ground feels like a furnace out here in the farmlands

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ORD is 91/73 (HI 100) at 10pm...it's amazing to step outside into darkness with that degree of warmth.

Thats sick! Its a "comfortable" 77F here...thats one thing we have not felt in this dustbowl-eque heatwave....is insane heat at night. Our warmest low has been 72, next 71, and all the rest in the 60s. Convection ftw....86/69 is a mere +4F departure. Heatwave what? Wont be saying that when its in triple digits tomorrow afternoon lol.

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You have to be kidding me! I don't believe it, I can't even remember what 70s feels like.

I think Milwaukee will be "saved" from the heat on Saturday. That's quite a gradient across NE IL on Saturday though! 70° is going to feel like 50°!

85°/74° currently. :yikes:

Winds forecast to turn northerly tonight, hopefully that will dry out the atmosphere.

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