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Late June/Early July Extreme Heat Episode


Hoosier

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Feel sorry today for the golf caddies at the US Woman's Open Golf Championship up in Kohler, WI. At least the weekend is shaping up to be much nicer. Sure hope I'm still alive in 2020 as me and the wife will do anything to be at the Ryder Cup Matches at Whistling Straights. Hole Marshall would be sweet. Should be out there volunteering for the Woman's Open as then you're given the opportunity to volunteer for the 2015 PGA Championship & 2020 Ryder Cup.

Good thinking! I would like to do the same. As it is, I'm heading down to the John Deere Classic next Thurs/Fri to hopefully watch some of that tournament. Hoping for some cooler weather.

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Some patchy altocumulus are present here now ...

Yeah, solar flux is running 200-400 w/m^2 lower than yesterday. Kinda surprising we're pretty much as hot as yesterday with much less flux. Hard to tell if this will continue looking at visible satellite, the clouds causing this are almost invisible to it.

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Also, the convective feature over West Iowa/MN looks to have warming tops, and should be collapsing looking at the Infared. There may be a few debris clouds coming in from it, but should quickly be wained off by the heating of the day.

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ORD shot up to 96

That's 1F above yesterday at this time...and Td is 4F lower.

If ORD has a normal diurnal heating curve today (unlike yesterday when the max temp occurred around 1:30 PM), they should be able to surpass yesterday's high of 102. This assumes no significant cloud cover to impede heating.

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Also, the convective feature over West Iowa/MN looks to have warming tops, and should be collapsing looking at the Infared. There may be a few debris clouds coming in from it, but should quickly be wained off by the heating of the day.

It's funny that you should mention that. I'm pretty damn sure that the altocumulus that I referenced about 20 minutes ago simply evaporated. That said, it seems a bit hazier than yesterday even if dewpoints are a few degrees lower. I suspect that the haze is more attributable to other pollutants (besides water).

At 97 here, which is probably a couple of degrees ahead of 24 hours ago. Had 101 yesterday.

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Yeah, solar flux is running 200-400 w/m^2 lower than yesterday. Kinda surprising we're pretty much as hot as yesterday with much less flux. Hard to tell if this will continue looking at visible satellite, the clouds causing this are almost invisible to it.

Thicker wildfire smoke.

The plume was visible over NE/SD/ND/MN last night.

Edit: ...and now cirrus.

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Yeah, It's definately still on today, temp has rose to 97-98 at some of the local stations here. It looks we are not but 20-30 minutes behind yesterday and that time differential gap is quickly being made up. I'm starting to wonder about Saturday, just reading some of the other posts on here, if the Frontal passage is too slow, it could give us a chance of 4 days in a row of 100+...

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Yeah, It's definately still on today, temp has rose to 97-98 at some of the local stations here. It looks we are not but 20-30 minutes behind yesterday and that time differential gap is quickly being made up. I'm starting to wonder about Saturday, just reading some of the other posts on here, if the Frontal passage is too slow, it could give us a chance of 4 days in a row of 100+...

Assuming a frontal position even just to the north of the Ill-Wisc border (which is reasonable at this point) and based on the degree of pooling of dewpoints along fronts lately (upper 70's), I could envision a scenario where temperatures didn't settle much below the lower or middle 80's in northern Illinois and far southern Wisconsin on Friday night. (Keep in mind that DeKalb CO-OP, for instance, had a low of 74 last night as did DPA, I believe.) Even if "classic" conditions for 100+ temperatures were not in place on Saturday, temperatures would have a running start toward the century mark that day. That will be an interesting situation to watch, and the idea of a hot Saturday in much of northern Illinois (and, of course, south- and eastward) is not one to be discarded just yet.

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DET: 76 right now, down 19 degrees from yesterday at this time. To even have a shot at 90+ we need no more cells to develop and for the remaining clouds to push out.

NAM actually shows lower 100s for SAT due to slower frontal passage.

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Just watched Skilling's 11:50 segment. He showed the RPM model output for temperatures today through Saturday. Interestingly, the warmest temperatures for much of northern Illinois outside of lake influence were on Saturday.

Makes sense with the slower front on new runs. 850 mb temps are a touch warmer than Friday on the progs.

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