Fickle Heights Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Gets trickier out around Friday depending on how fast the ridge breaks down. Models are often a bit too quick so we'll see. Haven't been to Chad's blog in a while, but you're probably right. Yeah, he's been pushing the death ridge idea with 100s for LAF since they first showed up on the Euro 7-10 days ago for this weekend. FWIW, I ran into one his interns at Purdue on Thursday, and he told me that Chad expected 100s at the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Just doing some raw math, 850mb is roughly 1500m ASL on average. So if you take a parcel down dry adiabatically (well-mixed atmosphere) from 30C at 850mb, you get about 44C at the sfc, or approximately 112F. Adjusting for elevation and any other hindrance to max possible heating, 20C probably equates to 108-110F if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Good luck on the consecutive 100º days. I haven't looked, nor do I want to...but I assume good old Chad is going something like 95, 108, 106. Embrace the heat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Hopefully we don't see any power outages... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Well at least Friday doesn't look hot here anymore on the EURO, with a northerly flow. With the heat waves busting low lately, I don't blame some offices for staying conservative on temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Well at least Friday doesn't look hot here anymore on the EURO, with a northerly flow. It has temps of 95-100+ across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 18z NAM gets eastern IA up to 110+ on Weds and 850's of nearing 32 into northern IL by 6z Thurs. I keep waiting for these runs to back off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 It has temps of 95-100+ across the area. With a NW/N flow - that doesn't make any sense, lol! I've never seen a really hot day with winds from those directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Hill City KS ended up topping out at 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Not feeling our new Sahel climate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 I checked out the Central/Western forum to see thoughts on the heat wave/drought and barely a peep. I guess it's a matter of perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Hill City KS ended up topping out at 114. Ties their all-time June record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Makes you wonder if this heat may be a sign of things to come this summer, especially if the drought continues. Several years with intense June hot spells followed up with additional heat discharges that were as bad or even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Makes you wonder if this heat may be a sign of things to come this summer, especially if the drought continues. Several years with intense June hot spells followed up with additional heat discharges that were as bad or even worse. Long range would tend to agree with this and if we get rid of the -NAO a large portion of the East/Midwest would be roasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Makes you wonder if this heat may be a sign of things to come this summer, especially if the drought continues. Several years with intense June hot spells followed up with additional heat discharges that were as bad or even worse. For '88 as an extreme drought case in Chicago, it had the warmest avg high temperatures on record, but only ranked 10th for warmest overall because average lows rank ~70th. Shows what happens when the climate basically becomes arid. We've seen this this month, most so at Rockford, as temperatures there so far are "only" 3 degrees above normal through the 23rd, because low temperatures have only been 0.8 degrees above the June normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Seems to be increasing disagreement between models for Thur/Fri heat potential for some areas. It will be interesting to see if the ECMWF stays consistent, with the NAM/GFS showing a faster frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Seems to be increasing disagreement between models for Thur/Fri heat potential for some areas. It will be interesting to see if the ECMWF stays consistent, with the NAM/GFS showing a faster frontal passage. Indeed. There would be some question marks farther north. 00z runs also came west with Debby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 The ECMWF still has 28C at 850mb into N. IL by Thurs. It also has a pocket of 110F+ 2M temps around PAH on Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Even lower Mi close to 100F! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 The ECMWF still has 28C at 850mb into N. IL by Thurs. It also has a pocket of 110F+ 2M temps around PAH on Fri. End of the run has another heat dome of epic proportions. The OV is going to be burned to a crisp if this keeps up. Maybe the terrible drought talk isn't so far fetched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 End of the run has another heat dome of epic proportions. The OV is going to be burned to a crisp if this keeps up. Maybe the terrible drought talk isn't so far fetched. That was quite a run... 8 consecutive days of 100+ at STL, and at least 7 consecutive at PAH and IND. ORD ends up with 8 consecutive 90+ days and at least 2 100+ days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Makes you wonder if this heat may be a sign of things to come this summer, especially if the drought continues. Several years with intense June hot spells followed up with additional heat discharges that were as bad or even worse. I'm getting that vibe. Might be time to punt on 1988 and start looking at 1934, or...1936. Long range would tend to agree with this and if we get rid of the -NAO a large portion of the East/Midwest would be roasted. Not sure why -NAO is focused on so much in summer. The correlation doesn't work like it does in winter, not that that's full proof either. Last summer had a JJA average of -1.1 and 2010, which was warmer, had a -0.8 average. Going back further, 1995 was -2.1. So yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Point and click for EVV. Yeesh. Thursday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 105. Calm wind becoming west southwest between 4 and 7 mph. Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 72. Calm wind. Friday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 105. Calm wind becoming west southwest between 5 and 8 mph. Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 73. Light west southwest wind. Saturday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 100. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph. Saturday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Calm wind. Sunday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 98. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Point and click for EVV. Yeesh. Thursday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 105. Calm wind becoming west southwest between 4 and 7 mph. Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 72. Calm wind. Friday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 105. Calm wind becoming west southwest between 5 and 8 mph. Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 73. Light west southwest wind. Saturday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 100. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph. Saturday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Calm wind. Sunday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 98. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph. Just nasty! Not much else you could use to describe that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Sorry guys. I am taking time off work for yard work and even rented equipment. I was sure that would bring constant rain and an end to the drought. I didn't know it would cause extreme heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Wonder if the models will throttle up the dews and mixing as we head forward here. What the euro showed 36-48 hrs ago was intense. Would love to see that verify. I've gotta dig around here to find the earliest 100 reading for DTW. I'm unsure if it's happened prior to July 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Sorry guys. I am taking time off work for yard work and even rented equipment. I was sure that would bring constant rain and an end to the drought. I didn't know it would cause extreme heat. Well you did score some rain for yourself.. It was the sharing part that you seemed to have a problem with.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Expanding on the 100º maximum temperatures in June at the four long term sites in Indiana. As it's forecasted, EVV's twin predicted 105º temperatures would be their hottest on record in June. Probably a decent chance for IND to beat 102º as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Wonder if the models will throttle up the dews and mixing as we head forward here. What the euro showed 36-48 hrs ago was intense. Would love to see that verify. I've gotta dig around here to find the earliest 100 reading for DTW. I'm unsure if it's happened prior to July 1st. Detroit (1874 to present) June 8, 1933: 100º June 25, 1988: 104º June 26, 1952: 100º June 28, 1934: 104º Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 June 8, 1933: 100º June 25, 1988: 104º June 26, 1952: 100º June 28, 1934: 104º Thanks dude. I did figure that 88 would show up and sure enough on today's date! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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