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Late June/Early July Extreme Heat Episode


Hoosier

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Hit a high of 101.7 here on my Davis. Still think it's running high? I was below MKE. Truly think it's calibrated right and I hit those 96's earlier in the month.

I hit 101 today too, but I think I was a few degrees too high. Even though it's out in the open over grass I feel that the lack of airflow through the ventilated thermometer shield on days with light winds adds a few degrees. Since you guys had better mixing up there today your surface winds were a bit stronger and probably negated this problem, so your temp was probably very accurate. Unfortunately an aspirator isn't available for our particular Davis station. I may be buying this one very soon though, as it is a slightly more sophisticated model which also comes with a 24hr aspirator. It's only a few degrees difference on most days but I can't stand the possibility of inaccuracy lol.... http://www.ambientweather.com/dadi6323.html

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102° for a point forecast for tomorrow, then a "cooler" 92° for a high Friday with NE winds locking in the afternoon. 0z NAM run pushes the front through here at daybreak - excessive heat warning won't be needed for eastern WI or Lake County if that happens. 86° currently.

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The 0z NAM still manages to get ORD well over 100 on Friday despite the earlier timing of the front. One thing to factor in is the extremely warm start that will be occurring on Friday morning.

At this point I wouldn't buy the faster frontal passage.

Models have struggled this season, and have been breaking things down a bit too quickly. Last Thurs and the previous Sun are two good examples of this. With a 594dm+ ridge over the area on Fri and no significant s/w to speed things up, I would lean towards slower timing...probably during the afternoon. In other words, similar to last Thurs. The only potential issue would be an MCS which could kick it southward faster, but the NAM has that way up near the Canadian border.

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At this point I wouldn't buy the faster frontal passage.

Models have struggled this season, and have been breaking things down a bit too quickly. Last Thurs and the previous Sun are two good examples of this. With a 594dm+ ridge over the area on Fri and no significant s/w to speed things up, I would lean towards slower timing...probably during the afternoon. In other words, similar to last Thurs. The only potential issue would be an MCS which could kick it southward faster, but the NAM has that way up near the Canadian border.

What you're saying makes sense. The low level flow/gradient on Friday is pretty weak though, which could promote earlier lake breeze development. I just don't know if it gets all the way to ORD in time though. Worth noting that the high there today occurred in the early afternoon (even without a lake breeze boundary passing through) and I wonder if we see the same trend in the next couple days...it's almost like the super warm start/heat island effects allows temps to max out earlier than usual.

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Updated with Wednesday's highs and the new points.

Daily records for Indianapolis through the weekend...

July 3: 100º in 1911 97 98

July 4: 103º in 1911 99 99 102

July 5: 99º in 1936 99 100 102

July 6: 99º in 1988 99 100 102

July 7: 101º in 1936 98 98 99

July 8: 104º in 1936 94 93 93

Same for Evansville...

July 3: 101º in 1911 97 97

July 4: 101º in 1921 102 103 103

July 5: 99º in 1953 101 103 103

July 6: 99º in 1921 and 1930 100 102 105

July 7: 106º in 1936 101 102 102

July 8: 103º in 1936 97 98 96

Fort Wayne's records...

July 3: 99º in 1911 and 1955 97 95

July 4: 101º in 1955 98 99 101

July 5: 99º in 1988 99 101 101

July 6: 99º in 1988 101 102 105

July 7: 102º in 1988 97 96 98

July 8: 104º in 1936 91 91 88

And finally, South Bend...

July 3: 98º in 1897 96 94

July 4: 99º in 1911 and 1921 98 97 100

July 5: 100º in 1911 99 101 101

July 6: 100º in 1911 and 1988 101 102 103

July 7: 102º in 1936 94 92 94

July 8: 106º in 1936 88 82 86

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The point forecast For Rockford tomorrow night has a low of 78, a Low of 78 or higher has only occurred 14 times in the record since 1893. A low of 79 or higher has only occurred 5 times. A low of 80 has only occurred once in the record, August 6th, 1918. This would be pretty amazing...

Today was the 1st time since 8/17/1988 that Rockford has hit 102 or above. If a streak of 3 days at or above 100 occurs (W-TH-F) this will be the 1st time it has happened since 1953. If a streak of 3 days at or above 102 occurs (W-TH-F) this will be the 1st time it has happened since 1936.

The Streaks of 100+ days with 3 or more consecutive days. The blue denotes 102+ days with 3 or more consecutive days. The Ornage denotes just days at 102 or above with no real streak.

post-204-0-14375700-1341469466_thumb.jpg

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4th hottest day ever on the 4th of july - dork

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

147 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2012

...RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BROKEN AT MILWAUKEE

ON WED JULY 4TH...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY AT GENERAL MITCHELL INTERNATIONAL

AIRPORT IN MILWAUKEE REACHED 102 DEGREES...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS

RECORD OF 98 DEGREES SET IN 1990.

THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS 81 DEGREES...WHICH IS A RECORD HIGH

VALUE. THE OLD RECORD WAS 79 DEGREES...SET IN 1999.

THE AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE WAS 91.5 DEGREES...MAKING IT THE 4TH

HOTTEST DAY EVER. THE HOTTEST AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE FOR

MILWAUKEE WAS 93.0 DEGREES ON JULY 14 1995.

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Just cherry picking some of the hottest summers in LAF of recent vintage (and for those that there is available data)...but here's the average maximum temperatures from June 1 through July 4 for a few below. 2012 does have missing data due to an equipment failure (June 30 and July 1). In ( ) is the number of 90º+ days/100º+ days for June 1 through July 4.

2012: 86.5º (14/2)

2011: 82.9º (6/0)

2010: 84.3º (4/0)

1995: 84.9º (10/0)

1988: 88.4º (18/2)

1983: 84.9º (8/0)

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Feel sorry today for the golf caddies at the US Woman's Open Golf Championship up in Kohler, WI. At least the weekend is shaping up to be much nicer. Sure hope I'm still alive in 2020 as me and the wife will do anything to be at the Ryder Cup Matches at Whistling Straights. Hole Marshall would be sweet. Should be out there volunteering for the Woman's Open as then you're given the opportunity to volunteer for the 2015 PGA Championship & 2020 Ryder Cup.

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Dropped down to 72 this morning, 8 degrees cooler than yesterday morning. Forecasted high of 104

Can thank that outflow boundary last night. Made it down here as well and dropped the temp down to 73°. Hasn't cracked 80° yet this morning.

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Hit a high of 101.7 here on my Davis. Still think it's running high? I was below MKE. Truly think it's calibrated right and I hit those 96's earlier in the month.

Yes - a few degrees and No on the 96's

West Bend was only 100 and a CO-OP in Saukville was 99.

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