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Late June/Early July Extreme Heat Episode


Hoosier

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For tomorrow I'm going with

ORD 101

MLI 99

Thursday

ORD 103

MLI 102

Friday

ORD 102

MLI 100

That's a pretty solid prediction, I'd say.

I had 95 IMBY today, after fairly extensive debris cloudiness between 9:00 and noon, which, no doubt, shaved four to six degrees off temperatures. Seventh day in a row at or above 90 and the 22nd day this year.

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Mt UGN the hotspot in NE Illanoy @ 97

Intra hour reading. 96.7° IMBY. EURO showing the lake breeze starting up tomorrow afternoon, so not sure if 98° will be reached. 100° predicted for Thursday.

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I know things are built into climate normals....the greatly increased UHI at DTW may temper record lows in cold snaps moreso than the actual averages. But its just something I noticed lately (which wouldnt even be built into normals) with DTW and DET being so close. BTW where do you get that average for DET...I couldnt find it in that link and Id love to compare some other months.

Just go to the bottom and copy the monthly table into excel. All you need to do is the sum of all the highs + lows / divide by 2 and divide by number of days in month. It takes like 30 seconds.

But to be a bit cautious, I have noticed that sometimes wunderground omits the 6 hour high/low temp occasionally for the non major climate sites. So sometimes those intra hour highs and lows get left out. But I've only noticed this on a few occasions.

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Skilling went 102/102/100 for Chicago the next 3 days. Said it would only be the 3rd time in recorded history to string together 3 consecutive days over 100.

It would tie the longest streak for Chicago's official record, but, compared to other sites, that length of streak is short. It probably has much to do with the fact that the official thermometer (having been moved many times over the years) was at the University of Chicago campus near the lake shore in the 1930's. It was during the 1930's -- in particular, July 1934 and July 1936 -- that many inland stations, including Midway Airport, had streaks of six to nine days. This is true across much of northern Illinois. Although this is shaping up to be an historic summer in terms of heat so far, the 1930's, especially 1934 and 1936, are still king. On the other hand, comparisons to 1988 and a few of the summers in the 1950's are seemingly very appropriate.

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Skilling went 102/102/100 for Chicago the next 3 days. Said it would only be the 3rd time in recorded history to string together 3 consecutive days over 100.

Friday looks iffy. The front looks to come down earlier. Be interesting to see what the new EURO shows for that day. RPM model showed mid 90s I believe for ORD on Friday.

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I'm not buying into this Friday frontal passage yet. The models have hardly shown any trend towards that. I know that the 12z NAM, which is somewhat similar to the RPM, was not handling the front well at all. Will be awaiting the 12z guidance with interest.

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Friday looks iffy. The front looks to come down earlier. Be interesting to see what the new EURO shows for that day. RPM model showed mid 90s I believe for ORD on Friday.

The 12z Euro looked pretty hot on Friday, but the trend for that model (like the heat wave last week) was to speed things up as we get closer. The Euro looked very hot for Saturday a few days ago.

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Tim, I hope you don't mind me taking your data and running with it. Here are the actual numbers for July 3rd (bolded), as well as updated points for the rest of the week.

Daily records for Indianapolis through the weekend...

July 3: 100º in 1911 97 98

July 4: 103º in 1911 99 99

July 5: 99º in 1936 99 100

July 6: 99º in 1988 99 100

July 7: 101º in 1936 98 98

July 8: 104º in 1936 94 93

Same for Evansville...

July 3: 101º in 1911 97 97

July 4: 101º in 1921 102 103

July 5: 99º in 1953 101 103

July 6: 99º in 1921 and 1930 100 102

July 7: 106º in 1936 101 102

July 8: 103º in 1936 97 98

Fort Wayne's records...

July 3: 99º in 1911 and 1955 97 95

July 4: 101º in 1955 98 99

July 5: 99º in 1988 99 101

July 6: 99º in 1988 101 102

July 7: 102º in 1988 97 96

July 8: 104º in 1936 91 91

And finally, South Bend...

July 3: 98º in 1897 96 94

July 4: 99º in 1911 and 1921 98 97

July 5: 100º in 1911 99 101

July 6: 100º in 1911 and 1988 101 102

July 7: 102º in 1936 94 92

July 8: 106º in 1936 88 82

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Tim, I hope you don't mind me taking your data and running with it. Here are the actual numbers for July 3rd (bolded), as well as updated points for the rest of the week.

I don't mind at all. Good idea you have, doing what you're doing. :)

Already kinda awful outside this morning.

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It would tie the longest streak for Chicago's official record, but, compared to other sites, that length of streak is short. It probably has much to do with the fact that the official thermometer (having been moved many times over the years) was at the University of Chicago campus near the lake shore in the 1930's. It was during the 1930's -- in particular, July 1934 and July 1936 -- that many inland stations, including Midway Airport, had streaks of six to nine days. This is true across much of northern Illinois. Although this is shaping up to be an historic summer in terms of heat so far, the 1930's, especially 1934 and 1936, are still king. On the other hand, comparisons to 1988 and a few of the summers in the 1950's are seemingly very appropriate.

Very much agreed. I was trying to look up NE Illinois data via the Utah Climate site, but it's pretty sparse in the 1930's. But I found a few locations that had data for 1934 and 1936. Granted not the city itself, but it gives a good idea of what transpired in those extreme hot summers. Some of the better hot streaks for Cicero and Aurora below...

Cicero

July 18-25, 1934: 98, 97, 98, 108, 105, 108, 107, 106

August 8-9, 1934: 103, 104

July 7-15, 1936: 103, 103, 96, 105, 105, 100, 101, 104, 95

Aurora

June 1-3, 1934: 106, 87, 101

July 18-25, 1934: 94, 93, 105, 106, 107, 107, 106, 105

August 8-9, 1934: 103, 105

July 6-17, 1936: 100, 107, 106, 100, 107, 109, 108, 108, 111, 96, 96, 102

Also of some interest, the 1936 yearly summary for the University of Chicago noted the predominant flow was off the Lake in July, though the winds were very weak: http://www1.ncdc.noa...B94450D5BD5.pdf

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Already numerous AWOS sites across IL, eastern IA, southern WI, and southern MI over 90 degrees at the 9:15am update.

Already surpassed 90 here.

I was rooting around the twisterdata site earlier and thought to myself, wouldn't it by cool if they could add mixing level to the map sequence? It would be very cool to look at 925/850/700mb forecast maps that are overlayed with mixing depth level values. Would be a very handy feature if you are in a hurry and don't want to check individual forecast soundings.

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The Excessive Heat Warning now includes Toledo, Bowling Green, and Findlay here in NW Ohio...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

953 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

OHZ003-006-017-042200-

/O.UPG.KCLE.HT.Y.0003.120704T1600Z-120705T0100Z/

/O.NEW.KCLE.EH.W.0001.120704T1600Z-120705T0100Z/

LUCAS-WOOD-HANCOCK-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOLEDO...BOWLING GREEN...FINDLAY

953 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE

HEAT WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

THE HEAT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...UP TO 108.

* TIMING...DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OF TODAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 108 WILL IMPACT

OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ESPECIALLY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF

DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE COMBINATION OF HOT

TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS

SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK

PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF

THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE.

WHEN POSSIBLE, RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY

MORNING OR EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT

EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE

FITTING CLOTHING WHEN POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY

AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT

REST BREAKS IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS.

ANYONE OVERCOME BY HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND

SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE IS AN EMERGENCY-CALL 911.

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Already numerous AWOS sites across IL, eastern IA, southern WI, and southern MI over 90 degrees at the 9:15am update.

Already surpassed 90 here.

I was rooting around the twisterdata site earlier and thought to myself, wouldn't it by cool if they could add mixing level to the map sequence? It would be very cool to look at 925/850/700mb forecast maps that are overlayed with mixing depth level values. Would be a very handy feature if you are in a hurry and don't want to check individual forecast soundings.

Yup, multiple readings of 90+ around Madison already, roof up to 88.5 which pretty much corroborates that.

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Yup, multiple readings of 90+ around Madison already, roof up to 88.5 which pretty much corroborates that.

Yeah I see a 94 already on the west side of Madison (KC29).

Just a few patches of mid-level clouds way up in Wisconsin, but other than that it looks like almost all of us are getting full insolation this morning.

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Yeah I see a 94 already on the west side of Madison (KC29).

Just a few patches of mid-level clouds way up in Wisconsin, but other than that it looks like almost all of us are getting full insolation this morning.

MSN up to 92 at 10 am, 5-6 hours until temps level out. This is deep south weather no doubt.

Another thing that'll make today rough is warm air advection aloft, up to about 23 °C at 850 hPa

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