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Late June/Early July Extreme Heat Episode


Hoosier

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Meh, the HRRR has many locales in the 70s for 15Z (11 am EDT), where temps are already in the mid-upper 80s.

Yeah I was just checking on that. HRRR struggled with temps during the last bout of heat as well, at least in SEMI it did.

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88 at Indy. Probably should be 91 by now, but they dropped 2 degrees when that sprinkle storm cloud moved over a couple hours ago.

Will be interesting to see if the clouds really end up influencing the max temps this afternoon. Clouds have cleared out of the area now..

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81 right now with a forecast of 90 today. Not the most extreme temps compared to what it's going to be like south of the border, but they are really significant by our standards. Just checked the forecast and areas southwest of here have forecast temps approaching 100.

When I was in Kansas the temp reached the mid to high 90s a lot and it was sometimes humid. but it didn't feel as soupy as it does here on hot days. Would the lakes or geographical location of southern Ontario mean we get higher humidity than Kansas, or would they get worse?

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Will be interesting to see if the clouds really end up influencing the max temps this afternoon. Clouds have cleared out of the area now..

Did you get any sprinkles up there? I saw quite a few people on the N side of 465 talking about them earlier, on twitter.

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DTX raises highs by 1-2 degrees due to overestimation in dewpoints by models.

000

FXUS63 KDTX 281547

AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1147 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO RAISE MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO AND LOWER

DEWPOINTS BY SIMILAR VALUES. CLIMB IN DEWPOINTS DURING THE DAY

CONTINUES TO BE OVERESTIMATED BY MODELS WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS

SHOWING DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

12Z DTX SOUNDING ALSO CAME IN SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY

FORECAST. THIS SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS

TO CLIMB SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WITH 100+ NOW

POSSIBLE OVER OUR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES

NECESSARY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS KEEPING HEAT INDICES BELOW 105F.

AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AND MINIMUM RH VALUES ALSO LOOK TO STAY JUST

OUTSIDE OF RED FLAG CRITERIA.

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LOT lowered highs across the CWA.

It will likely end up being a bad decision for most of the area...unless ACCAS becomes a bigger issue. UGN area is already warmer than the updated numbers.

1017 AM CDT

UPDATE FOR TODAY...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF MORNING ISOLATED TSRA

ACROSS NW PORTION OF FA AS MINOR DISTURBANCE HAS ENCOUNTERED

INCREASINGLY DRY MID LEVELS AT TO MOVED E. IR SAT SHOWS CLOUD

TOPS HAVE WARMED DURING THE EARLY-MID MORNING.

HAVE TWEAKED DOWN MAX TEMPS BY 1 DEG S...AROUND 2 DEG N...AND

ABOUT 3-4 DEG ALONG N LAKESHORE. LEADING SURFACE TROUGH AND WIND

SHIFT LINE RUNS FROM SHEBOYGAN TO DUBUQUE AT 14Z. THE TRUE COOL

FRONT IS A BIT FURTHER BACK TO THE NW...RUNNING FROM THE BAY OF

GREEN BAY TO S OF LACROSSE...WITH SIGNIFICANT SURFACE DEW POINT

POOLING OCCURRING BETWEEN THE LEADING WIND SHIFT AND THE ACTUAL

FRONT.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WIND SHIFT DROPPING ACROSS THE

NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 18Z AND THE CORE OF THE HOT AIR

BEING SUPPRESSED S TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FA BY 00Z.

EXPECT THIS TO HOLD DOWN TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM EARLIER FORECASTS.

IN ADDITION...FOLLOWING WIND SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NW LOW LEVEL FLOW

APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH FOR THE WINDS TO FLOP OVER TO NE-E OFF OF THE

LAKE WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES COOLING ALONG THE FAR N

SHORE MID AFTERNOON AND FAR S SHORES LATE AFTERNOON.

AXIS OF INSTABILITY PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN THE LEAD TROUGH AND THE

COOL FRONT WHERE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S TO BE

POOLED. THIS AXIS TO RUN W-E ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AT 18Z

AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT 00Z. SHORT WAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR

SAT LOOP WAS MOVING TO THE FAR W END OF THE MN-IA BORDER AT 1345Z.

MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKING E ALONG THE MN-IA

BORDER THROUGH MID DAY THEN TURN ESE ACROSS SW WI AND N CENTRAL IL

DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR TS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WHERE

THE POOLED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND WHERE THE COOLER MID

LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMOVES THE CAP

BASED AT AROUND 825HPA.

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Geez that seems early.

92/75 in Madison, YUCK. Heat index of 103 °F. Dewpoint up to 77 on the met building roof.

When it is really hot - they can start quite early. Feels like the jungle outside!

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I probably overshot my 2nd prediction for LAF a little. Thinking more like 103 or 104 now. Also would not be surprised to see another late day high (5-6 PM?)

98/64 for IND, 96/64 LAF. 94/61 MIE. EVV is the hottest official station in the state at 99/58. 96/67 at the EMA station just north of Anderson. Road temp on the piece of pavement they set out is 125 rising at 10 degrees an hour.

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