Powerball Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I'd say 95*F for Detroit and 105*F for Chicago. I still have concerns about high cloudiness limiting the heating potential, at least somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Caplan set the lines for tomorrow. I went over for all. UGN 98 ORD 101 PIA 103. I'll say 97° for UGN. Sometimes those fronts move faster down the lake then they're forecast. Hit 92° today here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I definitely notice the dewpoint increase. Earlier it was hot but it felt good, now I walk outside and start sweating immediately. Tomorrow should feel more like a typical Iowa sauna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I'd say 95*F for Detroit and 105*F for Chicago. I still have concerns about high cloudiness limiting the heating potential, at least somewhat. Had high clouds here today, and got up to 90F... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I'd say 95*F for Detroit and 105*F for Chicago. I still have concerns about high cloudiness limiting the heating potential, at least somewhat. Going with 101 for DTW , 103 YIP and 98 PTK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I'd say 95*F for Detroit and 105*F for Chicago. I still have concerns about high cloudiness limiting the heating potential, at least somewhat. We had high clouds all day today and made it to 90 with 850mb temps of 16-17c and 925mb temps of 24-26c. I think 95 is considerably low balling it with respect to both of those levels being forecast to be much warmer tomorrow. 850mb temps are forecast to be around 25c and 925mb temps around 32c with very good mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I will go bold too. It's gonna be too damn hot. I get to work in it.... Yea! DTW: 104 DET: 101 PTK: 99 ORD: 105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Winter of 1936...very nice! NO! lol Winter of 1935-36 was nice, very cold and with a near-winter long snowpack...but 1936-37 was probably the most region-wide snowless winter ever to hit the midwest/northeast. Several big cities (Detroit, Boston to name a few) have their all-time futility mark set in 1936-37. Boston missed it this past winter by just 0.2", though Detroit more than doubled their 1936-37 total, as bad as this past winter was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Little off topic. Does anyone have a link with some old school upper air/surface maps from the 1930s heat waves.? I want to compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 From the IND AFD about next week... WITH NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANGES...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH READINGS REMAINING IN THE 90S WITH POSSIBLY A FEW MORE TRIPLE DIGIT DAYS. Here a question, what's the record number of triple digit days for IND? I'm sure I know who could find that answer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Going with 101 for DTW , 103 YIP and 98 PTK. I will go 99F tomorrow at DTW. Take the ridiculously low max 2m temp from the GFS (84), the probably-too-high 2m temp max from the NAM (106), difference is 22F, divide by 3, and give 2/3 lean towards the NAM. I will say 104F for YIP and 98 for PTK as well. Detroits all time high is 105F set July 24, 1934, and they have hit 104F five times. Record high tomorrow is 104F set in 1934, so we very well may not even set/tie a record even though it will likely be our hottest day in 24 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 We had high clouds all day today and made it to 90 with 850mb temps of 16-17c and 925mb temps of 24-26c. I think 95 is considerably low balling it with respect to both of those levels being forecast to be much warmer tomorrow. 850mb temps are forecast to be around 25c and 925mb temps around 32c with very good mixing. I thought DTWs max today was 88? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I will go 99F tomorrow at DTW. Take the ridiculously low max 2m temp from the GFS (84), the probably-too-high 2m temp max from the NAM (106), difference is 22F, divide by 3, and give 2/3 lean towards the NAM. I will say 104F for YIP and 98 for PTK as well. Detroits all time high is 105F set July 24, 1934, and they have hit 104F five times. Record high tomorrow is 104F set in 1934, so we very well may not even set/tie a record even though it will likely be our hottest day in 24 years. Good points. BUT. I wouldnt completely write off breaking that record given the intensity of this air mass. Looking at those highs to our SW today gives me hope of century cracking day. Have to factor in the downslope effect too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Little off topic. Does anyone have a link with some old school upper air/surface maps from the 1930s heat waves.? I want to compare. I use this http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/subdaily_20thc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 We had high clouds all day today and made it to 90 with 850mb temps of 16-17c and 925mb temps of 24-26c. I think 95 is considerably low balling it with respect to both of those levels being forecast to be much warmer tomorrow. 850mb temps are forecast to be around 25c and 925mb temps around 32c with very good mixing. Technically, the bulk of the high clouds (which were never opaque) held off until after peak heating took place. Th sun didn't begin to filter out here until 4PM, with completely clear skies through 2 PM. That said, I would love more than anyone for temps to eclipse 100*F+, but I'm being pragmatic considring our climo in these typs of setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Here a question, what's the record number of triple digit days for IND? I'm sure I know who knows or could find that answer.. 12 in 1936. Intra hour 90 for LAF. Let the streak begin. When it ends, nobody knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I thought DTWs max today was 88? I think he was working at KDTW today and said it hit 90 for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Good points. BUT. I wouldnt completely write off breaking that record given the intensity of this air mass. Looking at those highs to our SW today gives me hope of century cracking day. Have to factor in the downslope effect too. Its really all for the record books. Will it be just the 7th time on record Detroit hits 104F+? Will we touch exceed the all-time high of 105F? Will it not even touch the rare century mark? Because honestly, to joe public it will feel the same whether its 98 or 103...hot as f***! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 While doing some research I noticed that at the WL coop the first 100 degree day of the summer of 1936 also occurred on June 28. Spooky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I think he was working at KDTW today and said it hit 90 for a bit. That it did...I just saw that the highest hourly was 88, those intra-hour 2F bumps always trick you lol. This was DTW's 8th 90F+ of the year (4 times it just hit 90, then one 94, and three 95s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I thought DTWs max today was 88? Intrahour 90 at 430pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 If there's an area to watch for potential slight underperformance tomorrow I would say to watch for that area near the front where there will be better moisture pooling. Farther south is screwed though given their distance from the front and enhanced drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 12 in 1936. Intra hour 90 for LAF. Let the streak begin. When it ends, nobody knows... I figured you'd jump at that question.. Got your tee time scheduled for 4pm tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I figured you'd jump at that question.. Got your tee time scheduled for 4pm tomorrow? Talked to a few people today who are in an outing tomorrow...that tees off at 1:00pm. Eff that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Talked to a few people today who are in an outing tomorrow...that tees off at 1:00pm. Eff that. You couldn't pay me to play tomorrow.. Well, maybe for the right price.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Topped out at 92 at ORD and 91 here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Pulled a surface map from July 13th 1936. Here is todays surface map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 A few 00z RAOBs vs NAM/GFS output (850 mb temps): OAX: Actual: 31.6C 18z NAM: 32C 18z GFS: 31.4C TOP: Actual: 27.0C 18z NAM: 31.6C 18z GFS: 32C SGF: Actual: 25.6C 18z NAM: 24.5C 18z GFS: 25.2C Both models significantly underestimated 850 mb dewpoints at TOP which is why the temp errors are large there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 The ESRL RR is much more realistic. tbh I didn't even realize there was a difference between the two...let alone that it'd be this much of a discrepency vs Are they just initialized differently? Or are there some other slight differences between the two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 0z RAP gets a few area to 100 by 15z tomorrow lol then brings the lake breeze inland by 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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