IWXwx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Here is what Weather Underground is forecasting for me for the upcoming heat: http://www.wundergro...80&sp=KWISAUKV3 Wednesday Partly cloudy in the morning, then clear. High of 90F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph. Wednesday Night Clear. Low of 72F. Winds from the WSW at 10 to 15 mph. Thursday Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain in the afternoon. High of 113F with a heat index of 129F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%. A little bump troll fun for torchartie. You need to drive south for some real heat. Saukville point: Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 74. Southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. Thursday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 95. Heat index values as high as 99. West wind between 5 and 10 mph. Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. North wind around 5 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 91. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 153 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012 ...RECORD BREAKING HEAT EXPECTED THURSDAY... .TORRID UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING THE HOTTEST WEATHER SINCE 1988. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 100S. INZ008-009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ004-005-015-016-024-025- 280400- /O.UPG.KIWX.HT.Y.0003.120628T1400Z-120629T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KIWX.EH.W.0001.120628T1500Z-120629T0000Z/ NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY- ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT- BLACKFORD-JAY-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION... AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC... FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER... ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE... COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE... NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...MONON...LOGANSPORT... ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...WABASH... NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN... DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...HARTFORD CITY... MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD... HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...PAULDING... ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...FORT JENNINGS... VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE 153 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012 /1253 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012/ ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THURSDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * AIR TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 103 TO 107 DEGREES THURSDAY. IMPACTS... * VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL IMPACT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. * RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Des Moines is 100/70, heat index 108...yuck. Their dewpoint was only 54 at 8 AM this morning. I think that's a pretty acurate preview of our day tomorrow...with maybe a degree or two tacked onto each Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 101F/69F in Omaha... nice and toasty out there. Still need to add about 10F to these dew points for some real fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 102/79 in extreme southwest IA, ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 94/65 here in CR. I have to say, I just went outside for 15 minutes and it felt great. Heatwaves in recent years have generally been accompanied by brutal humidity, but this heat is very tolerable. It feels quite good for a little while after being in air conditioning for a long period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I'll go 102 for DTW Sounds bout right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Up to 115 in Hill City Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Reached 90 Today...So I'll go with 103 for DTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Up to 115 in Hill City Kansas. Insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I will go bold... 104 for DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Up to 115 in Hill City Kansas. South wind gusting to 35 mph. Regular blast furnace out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Is there any end in sight to this heat??? This may not break for at least the next ten days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Is there any end in sight to this heat??? This may not break for at least the next ten days.... From the IND AFD about next week... WITH NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANGES...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH READINGS REMAINING IN THE 90S WITH POSSIBLY A FEW MORE TRIPLE DIGIT DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... FOR CLIMATE INFORMATION AND FIRE WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE APPROPRIATE SECTIONS BELOW. WOW...WHAT AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TODAY...AS DEPICTED SO WELL BY 27.12Z SOUNDINGS FROM KILN WESTWARD TO OAX/TOP. THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD IS SQUARELY ON HEAT/FIRE WEATHER ISSUES...WITH ANCILLARY CONCERN FOR STORM CHANCES AS A WEAK FRONT SINKS INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. 27.12Z SOUNDINGS AT OAX/TOP SAMPLED THE EDGE OF THE EXTREME MAGNITUDE AND DEPTH OF THE IMPENDING HEAT CORE...WITH 31C 850MB TEMPS /OAX/ AND 700MB TEMPS AN ASTONISHING 19C AT MPX/OAX. THESE VALUES ALREADY 2-3 SIGMA ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...AND BOTH 27.12Z NAM/ECMWF /BASIS OF THERMAL ASPECTS OF FORECAST/ INITIALIZED THIS EXTREME CORE OF WARMTH WELL. UNDERNEATH THIS HEAT TODAY...OMA/DSM/MCI/TOP HAVE ALL EXCEEDED 100 DEGREES EASILY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...AND VERY DEEP SYSTEM PULLS ACROSS CNTL CANADA...THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS MAXIMUM OVER KS/NEB/MO ADVECTS QUICKLY ON SWLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. IN FACT...27.12Z NAM INCREASED ITS 850MB WARM ANOMALY /30C/ INTO INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO BY 21Z ON TUESDAY. OVERLAYING FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 4KM NAM /CONUS NEST/...12KM NAM...AND ECMWF...ON TOP THE RECORD JUNE TEMPERATURE SOUNDING /JUNE 25TH 1988 - DROUGHT YEAR/ SHOWS THAT FORECAST THERMAL STRUCTURE BY MODELS TOMORROW IS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE SOUNDING THAT YIELDED 102 DEGREE TEMPERATURES AT CMH/CVG/DAY BACK IN 1988. WHILE ONGOING/DEVELOPING DROUGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS IS NOWHERE NEAR 1988 LEVELS /YET/...SHALLOW SOIL MOISTURE IS CRITICALLY LOW...AND WILL AUGMENT INCOMING HEAT. USING CVG AS PROXY...NAM/ECWMF FORECAST OF 25/27C AT 850MB WITH SWLY FLOW AT THE SFC...AND WNWLY FLOW AT 850MB FITS COMPOSITE 100 DEGREE SOUNDINGS FROM PREVIOUS EVENTS PERFECTLY...AND PRESENCE OF WEAK FRONT DROPPING INTO MI/WI DURING THE DAY WILL ENHANCE THE SWLY/WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...FURTHER ENABLING MIXING OF AN AIR MASS THAT WILL STILL RETAIN CHARACTERISTICS OF DEW POINTS IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S. IN OTHER WORDS...A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS THAN AREAS TO THE WEST ALREADY IN THE LOW 100S. AT THIS END OF SPECTRUM...GETS TOUGH TO FORECAST A SHATTERING OF AN ALL-TIME MONTHLY RECORD...SO FEEL FORECAST IS A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IN PARTS OF SERN IND/WRN OH WHERE CORE OF WARM AIR ADMITTEDLY ARRIVES JUST A LITTLE LATE. STILL...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 3 SIGMA ABOVE CLIMO...AN IDEAL SYNOPTIC SETUP IN COMPARISON TO PAST EXTREME HEAT EVENTS...FELT COMFORTABLE ADDING A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO ONGOING FORECAST. IF 27.12Z NAM WOULD VERIFY AS IS - NOT TO MENTION 27.12Z ECMWF...A 105 DEGREE READING IS NOT AT ALL OUT OF THE QUESTION IN OUR WRN 1/3RD OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE OF THIS IN FAR WEST WHERE DROUGHT EFFECTS/SOIL CONSIDERATIONS ARE GREATER. DEGREE OF CAPPING /SBCIN/ ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS TREMENDOUS...SO WHILE A FEW CLOUDS WELL ABOVE THE CAP MAY DEVELOP IN THE MORNING...THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE AND BAKING. GOING BACK OVER 60 YEARS OF OBSERVED DAY/ILN SOUNDINGS IN WARM SEASON WHERE 100 DEGREE TEMPS WERE OBSERVED...NONE CONTAIN THE FORECAST LOW LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE AS DEPICTED BY NAM AND ECMWF...SO STARTING TO FEEL STRONGLY THAT MANY AREAS WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES...AND IF ANYTHING...GOING FORECAST COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO CONSERVATIVE. LIKELY THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THINGS A BIT...BUT CAUTION IS RAISED THAT THURSDAY COULD FEATURE HISTORIC JUNE WARMTH. THUS MOVED ENTIRE FORECAST TO HEAT ADVISORY AND MOVED DAY/CVG METRO AREAS TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS BASED ON FACT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70...AND HEAT INDICES ON FRIDAY TOO SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 100. THERE IS MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ABOUT MCS POTENTIAL AND ANY EFFECTS OF SLIGHTLY LOWERING HEIGHTS ON TEMPERATURE. IT/S PRETTY CLEAR THE LOW LEVELS COOL SOME ON FRIDAY IN RELATION TO THURSDAY...BUT AS WEAK FRONT SINKS IN...IT WILL BRING A MARKED RISE IN DEW POINTS...DROUGHT NOTWITHSTANDING. THERE ARE SPORADIC MCS CLUSTERS IS THE VARIOUS NWP DATA BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN MOST NWP MODELING OF PBL MOISTURE...SO VERY CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN SHEER STRENGTH OF CAP SHOULD WIN OUT /REFERENCE NAM-WRF BUFR SOUNDINGS AND TREMENDOUS MUCIN/. BETTER SIGNAL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THAT IF WEAK SYSTEMS IN INCREASINGLY NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW CAN ERODE CAPPING...A HIGH END DAMAGING WIND MCS EVENT IS POSSIBLE...AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BE AN IDEAL DERECHO TYPE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP AND STRONG NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. KEY WILL BE FORCING AND WHETHER IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DO SO...AND STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THROUGH VERY WARM EML. LOW CHANCE OF IT OCCURRING...BUT IF SOMETHING GOES...IT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT CONSIDERING MLCAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACING ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Up to 115 in Hill City Kansas. That's just an hourly ob, too. It'll be interesting to see whether 115 was exceeded intra-hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 CAPE up to 6000 in NW MO with -75 CINH. What a blast furnace powder keg that will go to waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Great AFD. I have been checking past events myself and really haven't been able to find anything that quite matches this in terms of low level (sfc to 850 mb) thermal profiles. This stuff is probably what you would've seen if you were sitting in front of a computer in the 1930's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Or 1911 -- check records for June 29 to July 5 of 1911. Toronto had its second highest temperatures on record in that heat wave (103 F compared with 105 F in July 1936). That 103 F remains the second highest reading after three days in the 1936 heat wave. There were 102 F readings in August 1918 and 101 F in August 1948. Toronto's June record high used to be 98 F set June 30, 1964, not sure if the downtown station has been adequately maintained since about 1980 to compare more recent hot days but I also recall some very high 90s in the 1966 heat waves in southern Ontario. Saw a 601 dm thickness on last night's 00z 500-mb map on the EC site. That was pretty much over eastern Colorado. Will report what I see on the same map this evening. As you may know, thickness during extreme heat waves tends to fluctuate diurnally by about 10 dm so the 12z readings are never quite this extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Hit 92 here today, was forecast to hit 95. MLI came in 4 degrees short too at 91. I'll go with 100 tomorrow here, and 98 at MLI. ORD/RFD should have no problem breaking the 102 mark. Don't see any extreme numbers over western Iowa like I thought I'd see today. Kind of makes me have some doubts on some of the outrageous readings forecast by some of the models for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Hit 92 here today, was forecast to hit 95. MLI came in 4 degrees short too at 91. I'll go with 100 tomorrow here, and 98 at MLI. ORD/RFD should have no problem breaking the 102 mark. Don't see any extreme numbers over western Iowa like I thought I'd see today. Kind of makes me have some doubts on some of the outrageous readings forecast by some of the models for tomorrow. Really looking forward to seeing the 00z RAOBs. As far as out west, they haven't been as dry which could be playing into things a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Point forecast for St Louis is up to 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Great AFD. I have been checking past events myself and really haven't been able to find anything that quite matches this in terms of low level (sfc to 850 mb) thermal profiles. This stuff is probably what you would've seen if you were sitting in front of a computer in the 1930's. That is one of if not the longest AFD i've ever seen from ILN. They usually don't get this descriptive. Very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 ...As far as out west, they haven't been as dry which could be playing into things a bit... The low-level moisture looks a lot more impressive out there than what was forecast too. Looks like a large area of 75+ dews in the area where some of the outrageous temps were forecast. Oddly enough it probably ended up feeling a lot hotter than had it been 110 with the actual temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I will go bold... 104 for DTW. I will go bold too. It's gonna be too damn hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 FWIW the RAP which has been a little funky to say the least, is trending down with the 850s tomorrow across N. Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 FWIW the RAP which has been a little funky to say the least, is trending down with the 850s tomorrow across N. Illinois It has 90 here at 9 AM. Probably a little too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 It has 90 here at 9 AM. Probably a little too fast. RAP had us hitting 110 today. Came in almost 20 degrees short lol. Think they need to do some work on certain aspects of that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 In fact, in the last couple of weeks, the western quarter of Iowa west-southwestward into southeastern Nebraska and northeastern Kansas have been quite wet -- perhaps up to twice the normal rainfall for the period. It will be interesting, indeed, to see the 00z RAOBs. Really looking forward to seeing the 00z RAOBs. As far as out west, they haven't been as dry which could be playing into things a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 RAP had us hitting 110 today. Came in almost 20 degrees short lol. Think they need to do some work on certain aspects of that model. The ESRL RR is much more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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