Hoosier Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 12z 850 mb analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Hill City KS is 109 at 12 PM local time, 2 degrees higher than yesterday at this time...and yesterday they set an all-time June record (115). Crazy! Was just gonna post that. Their all-time high is 117 which is in some danger of being tied at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Holy crap! Is that 106 or 108 for Detroit-Ann Arbor? 21z tomorrow from the 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Point forecast for St. Louis tomorrow is 107. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 lol...RAP has 850 mb temps of 34-35C in Iowa at 3z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 TWC increased temp for DTW; 101 for Tomorrow... http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/Detroit/Metro+Wayne+County+Arpt+MI+USMI0230:1:US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Holy crap! Is that 106 or 108 for Detroit-Ann Arbor? 108*F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Still seeing some differences on the placement of the thermal ridge tomorrow. NAM is most bullish on a farther north placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Has the media been hyping this heat at all? Here in Cleveland there's been hardly a mention. I mentioned to a few folks that tomorrow could be the hottest day in 20 years and I got blank stares of, what are you talking about. Someone even sent me a copied forecast page showing a high of 90. Perhaps the lake breeze will win out, but mercy if 100 comes to fruition as people will be quite surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Has the media been hyping this heat at all? Here in Cleveland there's been hardly a mention. I mentioned to a few folks that tomorrow could be the hottest day in 20 years and I got blank stares of, what are you talking about. Someone even sent me a copied forecast page showing a high of 90. Perhaps the lake breeze will win out, but mercy if 100 comes to fruition as people will be quite surprised. Mark Johnson and NEOWeather has mentioned it a few times on his FB page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 ORD up to 88 so 90-92 shouldn't be an issue...forecast right on track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 So GFS has 80's for TMRW, and NAM has 100's... that's a big spread in temps....does anyone have euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 98F/68F in Omaha... I've got 89F/62F here...can really tell the moisture has jumped even in the last hour... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Not the greatest confidence but my call for ORD is 105 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 IND is forecasting 105 for Indianapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 My current call for ORD for tomorrow is 103. Confidence: medium. For Friday, I am not yet prepared to make an official call; it depends upon what happens with any precipitation (and associated debris cloudiness) tomorrow night, if any. (I remain rather skeptical -- even despite the 12z NAM jumping on board with MCS development for that period.) Somewhere in the mid or even upper 90's may not be a bad call for Friday at ORD if cloud cover is not an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 So GFS has 80's for TMRW, and NAM has 100's... that's a big spread in temps....does anyone have euro? Never use GFS for warm season temps, as Joe mentioned the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I will go bold and say we reach at least 100 tomorrow at KDTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 255 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012 SHORT TERM ..NEAR RECORD HEAT ON THURSDAY EWD EXPANSION OF STOUT UPR LVL RIDGE AND EWD ADVTN OF TORRID LL THERMAL RIDGE FM THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS IN LIVING MEMORY...RIVALING THAT OF JUNE 25TH 1988 AND FURTHER SUGGESTIVE OF POTENTIALLY SETTING ALL-TIME JUNE RECORD HIGHS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTS TO STRUGGLE MIGHTILY W/EXPANDING SEVERE DROUGHT AREA AND THU NO EXCEPTION W/SFC BASED MSTR. HWVR NAM 2M TEMPS LOOK IDEAL GIVEN APPROXIMATION OF MIXED LYR DEPTHS ON UPSTREAM RAOBS AND WILL BUMP SWRN THROUGH ERN AREAS ACRS NW OHIO HIGHER IN CONSIDERATION OF NAM 2M PLACEMENT OF MID 100 DEGREE TEMPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 lol...RAP has 850 mb temps of 34-35C in Iowa at 3z. 33 deg C into northern IL by 9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Caplan set the lines for tomorrow. I went over for all. UGN 98 ORD 101 PIA 103. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I will go bold and say we reach at least 100 tomorrow at KDTW I'll go with 103 for DTW and 102 for DET...did not expect to be saying this, but due to very good mixing depicted by the NAM, temps should increase dramatically during the morning/afternoon from lower 70s around 8AM to around 100 near 2 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 from IND's excessive heat warning: URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 301 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012 ..RECORD BREAKING HEAT EXPECTED THURSDAY .A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THE HOTTEST WEATHER SINCE THE 1930S ON THURSDAY. NO MATTER WHERE YOU ARE...IT WILL AT LEAST BE THE HOTTEST SINCE 1988. * THURSDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY MANY HOOSERS HAVE EVER SEEN IN THEIR LIFE. HIGHS COULD REACH 106 IN SOME PLACES...AND AT LEAST MAKE IT TO 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 ORD up to 88 so 90-92 shouldn't be an issue...forecast right on track ORD up to 89 now, so still on track. ORD is beating MDW yet again too...89-86. It will be interesting to see if this occurs once again tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Caplan set the lines for tomorrow. I went over for all. UGN 98 ORD 101 PIA 103. UGN is iffy, but I would go over for now given it has been running warm the past few warm days we have had. ORD and PIA over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1240 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012 ..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION SHORT TERM /TODAY/ MAIN ISSUE TODAY SURROUNDS MAX TEMPS AND THE HEAT INDICES AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH H85 TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND +30C OR HIGHER. SFC TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL NE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SFC WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BEING THE DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR THE BEST WARMING ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER AS THE SFC TROUGH APPROACHES THE CWA...COULD PUSH WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY LIMITING THE WARMING A TOUCH. LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING POTENTIAL TO AROUND 875MB...WHICH WOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 100S ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA. ALTHOUGH THESE MAX TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE...AM CONCERNED WITH RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALOFT ALSO PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE CWA THAT HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO LIMIT WARMING AS WELL. HAVE STUCK MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE MODEL MIXING TOOL AND THE NAM GUIDANCE...HOWEVER STILL HAVE MAX TEMPS NEAR A FEW RECORD HIGHS AT SOME LOCATIONS. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN THE THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 THIS AFTERNOON...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. THEREFORE WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 IN THE EXTREME EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I'll go 102 for DTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Was just gonna post that. Their all-time high is 117 which is in some danger of being tied at least. Now Hill City is 114...still 2 degrees above this time yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 ORD is up to 90...15th 90+ day of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Des Moines is 100/70, heat index 108...yuck. Their dewpoint was only 54 at 8 AM this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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