Hoosier Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Just a quick analysis of 850 mb temps now that the 00z observed data is in...it appears they are pretty much in line with model predictions for this time. It will be especially useful to check models vs reality tomorrow as this scorching airmass gets closer to see if there is any sign of being overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 GFS, looks hot, and hot, and hot through the end of the run..... What are the chances of this breaking, say, before August 1st? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 00Z NAM showing unrealistically high temps in the 104-106 range in Detroit on Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 00Z NAM showing unrealistically high temps in the 105-107 range in Detroit on Thurs. Great mixing up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 This is the hottest NAM run yet locally... 90*F Wednesday 107*F Thursday 98*F Friday Mid 90s likely on Saturday Based on the orientation of everything (wind direction, heights, etc.), low 90s would be our cool down outside convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 0z NAM has 104 for ORD on Thurs. The last several runs have been consistently in the 103-105 range. Others...106 MDW, 105 LAF, 101 MLI and 105 DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 NAM a touch cooler Thu here. Anymore ticks south and we're out of the 100 game. The trend isn't looking good for this area. EDIT: 4km NAM also a touch cooler here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Great mixing up that way. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 OMG! :$ NO WORDS.. PATCH OF 105- 110F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Quincy (UIN) and Jacksonville (IJX) are a couple of the sites in/near the NAM 110F area for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I would give the GFS some credit for nailing the quicker frontal passage timing Thursday over the Euro, but I think that has a lot to do with Debby. If Debby would have moved further north the Euro solution probably would have won out. With Debby staying so far southeast it didn't block the thermal ridge as much, so the end result is a much quicker frontal passage. The end result for MLI will probably be a 96-100 instead of a 101-105 if the earlier Euro versions would have verified. Maybe our timing will be better with the next heat wave when it surges back northeast again next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 FWIW...The ESRL RR isn't updating, but here's the RUC for tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 This is LOL worthy, but pretty cool to look at. 105 here, 110 for Hawkeye, and 115 for Des Moines. Pushing 120 in Omaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 FWIW...The ESRL RR isn't updating, but here's the RUC for tomorrow... Holy moly.. Is that a speck of 120 I see in KS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Kinda funny that the first day of the heat wave (today) is expected to be the hottest. We're down to a cool 71 °F to start the day, expected to reach around 61 °F before sunrise. Can't believe we are expected to hit 97 °F for a high, or even 100+ if some of these projections are realistic. Would be a good day to test my theory that you can make an MCS develop by detonating a nuke in the capping inversion, 4000-5000 J/kg of CAPE projected over a large swath of the Great Plains and Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 The 00z Euro is ridiculous. It has potentially 9 days in a row of 100+ here (a couple borderline days). Obviously rain or whatever could interrupt things but dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 The 00z Euro is ridiculous. It has potentially 9 days in a row of 100+ here (a couple borderline days). Obviously rain or whatever could interrupt things but dang. What is rain? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 The 00z Euro is ridiculous. It has potentially 9 days in a row of 100+ here (a couple borderline days). Obviously rain or whatever could interrupt things but dang. 10 consecutive(the whole run) 100+ days at STL. 10 consecutive 90+ days for ORD, with 5 100+ days...including 105+ on the 4th of July. ...and it would continue beyond the end of the run... Easily the warmest run of a model that I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 10 consecutive(the whole run) 100+ days at STL. 10 consecutive 90+ days for ORD, with 5 100+ days...including 105+ on the 4th of July. ...and it would continue beyond the end of the run... Easily the warmest run of a model that I can remember. What about IND or BMG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 That's just insane.. Few specs of 120+, talk about walking into an oven.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LouWX Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Looks like the GFS significantly under-performed on Tmaxes yesterday in the Plains. Up to 10F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 This seems like a good analog for this upcoming July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Day is starting off cooler than predicted. Low of 55°. Point forecast, now predicting 91° today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 69 bank clock...low 90s shouldn't be an issue. RAP is retarded hot...tossing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 An ominous sign no doubt, but my jankity weather station just beeped and the temperature now reads HHH. Mercy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 After a low of 65 °F we're up to 72 °F as of 8 am. Still a couple more hours until hellfire engulfs the landscape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I see 0z MET MOS came in with a tamer 108º for EVV for tomorrow. Only 100º for LAF, but it creeps dewpoints up to 71º. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 10 consecutive(the whole run) 100+ days at STL. 10 consecutive 90+ days for ORD, with 5 100+ days...including 105+ on the 4th of July. ...and it would continue beyond the end of the run... Easily the warmest run of a model that I can remember. anyone know the record for number of consecutive 90+ days at ORD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 anyone know the record for number of consecutive 90+ days at ORD? 11, done in 1953, 1954, 1955, and 1959. Source: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=chi_temperature_records Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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