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July 2012 General Discussion


Tropical

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Since the rains missed we're still at a paltry 0.55" for July.

Ended up making it back to 90 this afternoon. MLI has at least 91 so far. Outflow combined with debris clouds kept us cooler today. Actually felt cooler than it was due to the recent heat.

Tomorrow looks absolutely sick. 850 temps forecast by the NAM to exceed 27°C by afternoon, deep mixing, extremely dry soil, and an incoming cold front should maximize heating potential. I'm thinking 105-106 for MLI, but wouldn't be surprised to see a few of the hotter AWOS sites around (like Muscatine) give 107-108 a run.

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Really nice night out! Good enough to turn the AC off for awhile. So far this July I've picked up 3.48" of rain - 3.06" since last Wednesday PM. Things have greened up enough to make it seem a drought isn't going on.

Soil is wet to the touch, so I'm not sure how hot it will actually be tomorrow. Thinking mid 90s is a good guess.

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Had some intermittent thunder for the past two hours or so. At first I had no idea what the sound was, but then I checked the radar and saw some slow moving cells near IKK. The cells themselves reached this vacinity near sunrise, but they quickly fell apart and offered not one drop of rain. However, the cloud debris from the dying storms sure helped paint an amazing sunrise this morning.

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I would love to see this record broken! Wonder what the dews were during the day. Must have been low given the swing in temp.

The old LCDs from NCDC often gave three hourly temperature and relative humidity readings, so you could figure out the dew points from that. On July 24, 1934, the 8 AM temperature and humidity was 76 and 68%, the noon readings were 98 and 27%, and the 8PM readings were 99 and 25%. This would correspond to dewpoints of 65, 58, and 57 respectively.

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This is interesting ...

Top 5 warmest July's on record for Milwaukee, WI:

1 ... 79.5F (thru 7/24) ... 2012

2 ... 79.2F ... 1921

3 ... 76.6F ... 2010

4 ... 76.5F ... 2011

5 ... 76.4F ... 1991

Notice the last 3 years are all in the top 5, lol. Records date back to 1871. Natural warming cycle, weird coincidence or global warming?

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This is interesting ...

Top 5 warmest July's on record for Milwaukee, WI:

1 ... 79.5F (thru 7/24) ... 2012

2 ... 79.2F ... 1921

3 ... 76.6F ... 2010

4 ... 76.5F ... 2011

5 ... 76.4F ... 1991

Notice the last 3 years are all in the top 5, lol. Records date back to 1871. Natural warming cycle, weird coincidence or global warming?

Id say coincidence, as Im sure July 2009 is somewhere in Milwaukees top 5 coldest.

Julys this century have often been in the record books for Detroit, whos records date to 1871 (top 20 rankings noted, bolded). Its been a pretty decent mix of above and below normal.

2000 - 10th coldest

2001 - warmer than avg

2002 - 10th hottest

2003 - cooler than avg

2004 - cooler than avg

2005 - warmer than avg

2006 - 14th hottest

2007 - cooler than avg

2008 - cooler than avg

2009 - 3rd coldest

2010 - 9th hottest

2011 - 1st hottest

2012 - ??? (somewhere between 1st-5th hottest pending this weeks weather)

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Not overly optimistic on significant rainfall tonight here. Cold front is a long ways away. Looks like we may end up with a decaying line of storms at best late tonight.

agree...i'm at the point where i hope it slows down enough to make tomorrow interesting.

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agree...i'm at the point where i hope it slows down enough to make tomorrow interesting.

LOT discussion mentions the front firing off new activity tomorrow.

THURSDAY...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES OVERHEAD AND APPEARS TO LOSE SOME

MOMENTUM...THUS IT IS EXPECTED THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE

CWFA. THE MAIN SFC LOW PASSES NORTHEAST INTO LOWER MI ARND DAYBREAK

THUR. THUS EXPECT THE DAY WILL BEGIN WITH A FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL

FOR CONVECTION REGENERATING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE

EARLY AFTN HOURS AS A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A BETTER PUSH SOUTHEAST ARRIVING MIDDAY.

THE FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE ON

THE QUICK SFC HEATING THAT WILL OCCUR WITH A DECENT THERMAL

DIFFERENTIAL EXISTING ACROSS THE CWFA...FOCUSED IN THE PROXIMITY OF

THE BOUNDARY WITH INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING

EDGE. WITH THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE PEELING OFF TO THE EAST AND THE

500MB RIDGE FLATTENING...COUPLED WITH A LLVL JET OF

30-40KTS...FORWARD SPEED OF ANY CONVECTION COULD BE ACCELERATING IN

THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS AND AID IN PUSHING THE FRONTAL

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