wisconsinwx Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Ya I wouldn't be suprised if that's the case. Where ever the high clouds are right now will probably be the same areas that see storms later. It's going to be a close call. Actually you might be right. I was looking at either the 13z or 14z HRRR, and the 15z shifted it slightly north. Also, Milwaukee is on the northern edge of the high clouddeck, so I might just be overly pessimistic. A few tenths of an inch of rain would be welcome, although more would obviously be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 euro looks decent .50+ here. pin hole dot over alek of .75+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 from LOT CONCERNS THEN SHIFT TOWARDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER STRONGER AND MORE DEFINED MID LEVEL WAVE NOTED ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING A VERY MOIST AIR MASS INTO IT AND OVER A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS WAVE/FORCING AND STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES EXPECTED NORTH OF LINE FROM DIXON IN ILLINOIS TO FOWLWER IN INDIANA AND THE BEST CHANCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING EXPECTED TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THIS COMPLEX MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IT WILL ENCOUNTER A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH HIGH DEWPOINT/PWAT AIR IN PLACE. CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WOULD BE FOR SOME ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...BUT WITH CONCERNS MORE TOWARD THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CLASSIC HEAVY RAIN SETUP...MANY FEATURES ARE IN PLACE TO PROVIDE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL ALL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...INCLUDING LOW LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY ORIENTING ITSELF WITH REGARD TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SUCH TO BRING AT LEAST SOME PERIOD OF POTENTIAL TRAINING OF CELLS. WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE MENTION OF THESE THREATS IN THE HWO AS WELL AS AN ESF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 if we don't score tonight and tomorrow it could be a very disappointing week. I'm not sold we're in a good spot later in the week and im afraid we'll be stuck with most of the precip missing n/s good call COMPLEX AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY MUCH OVERDONE ON SHRA AND TSRA THIS EVENING WITH CURRENT MIDLEVEL WAVE SLIDING OVERHEAD. RELYING ON RADAR AND IR SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE LACK OF LIGHTNING WITH ACTIVITY IN THE REGION THERE IS NO GOOD REASON TO BELIEVE THE TRACON AREA WILL SEE TSRA THIS EVENING. EVEN THE SHRA OVER WISCONSIN HAVE STRUGGLED AGAINST THE CAPPED ATMOSPHERE DESPITE MESOANALYSIS SHOWING PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HAVE GONE WITH A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A COUPLE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM TIME TO TIME. LATER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL SAG SOUTH OVER THE TERMINALS...AND ANOTHER MIDLEVEL SYSTEM MAY COMBINE TO RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR PREVAILING SHRA/POSSIBLY TSRA. DO NOT HAVE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT INCLUDED VCTS WITH PREVAILING -SHRA FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF ANY GOOD SHOWER ACTIVITY DOES GET GOING...COULD SEE SOME LOWERING OF CEILINGS...BUT NOT EXPECTING A DIP BELOW VFR. THERE MAY BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR MORE SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS MORE MIDLEVEL FEATURES DROP SOUTHEAST AND THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE AREA. HOWEVER...NOT NEARLY ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THIS SET OF TAFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Lots of clouds, a few sprinkles...high dew points... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Lots of showers across the Midwest, but I think will have to wait for thunderstorms until the wee hours of the morning at the earlier - it sounds. Plenty of juice to work with; 86/74 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 starting to see some increase in returns over MN...wonder if we'll see things start to build downstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 starting to see some increase in returns over MN...wonder if we'll see things start to build downstream That's the look of it. Interestingly the HRRR has way less thunderstorm activity than what's actually going on, hopefully a trend: http://rapidrefresh.... Jul 2012 - 23Z Looks like Madison is in the line of fire for at least a decent stratiform rain event, probably going to be tons of boomers and spider lightning in that. HRRR keeps the actual squall to the south, but that can easily change. Shower moving through Madison on the downstream end of the system, a little wet out there. Low level temps an extremely warm 85/72 despite the rain... whoever gets hit with the main updrafts in this squall are gonna regret it if they own a car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Looks like things are cooking now west of MSP. Update from MKX on storms tonight: 000 FXUS63 KMKX 240257 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 957 PM CDT MON JUL 23 2012 .UPDATE...850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS VIA CONFLUENT FLOW BTWN UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY IS TRIGGERING A WEST TO EAST BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ACROSS SRN MN INTO CENTRAL WI. THIS BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO SRN WI AND NRN IL LATE TNT AND STALL INTO TUE AM. EXPECT ROUNDS OF CONVECTION FROM MADISON TO MILWAUKEE AND SOUTH. CLOUD BASES WILL BE VERY HIGH TO START AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO TUE AM. NEARLY A HALF AN INCH TO POSSIBLY THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THAT SAME AREA. Edit: 11pm - showers moving overhead into Chicago metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 84/73 right now, had a high of 97 today Radar is looking pretty good upstream. I think some places around the area could definetly see an inch or more of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 No question this Round One will be a congrats LaCrosse to Rockford and Chicago. Even the light to moderate showers in Central Wisconsin petered out or missed in all directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 at least it cooled off just now.. I'm done with this week. why i waste so much time long tracking summer threats that i know nothing about and that change with every fart is beyond me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 nice soaker moving through for daddy in la crosse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 The little cluster of storms that developed over the western portion of my county now have organized themselves into a nice little show for Logansport/Kokomo areas. Another little cell recently popped up in the extreme northern portion of Jasper County. Although these little boomers are missing me, I am still getting a nice light show. Can't complain there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 The little cluster of storms that developed over the western portion of my county now have organized themselves into a nice little show for Logansport/Kokomo areas. Another little cell recently popped up in the extreme northern portion of Jasper County. Although these little boomers are missing me, I am still getting a nice light show. Can't complain there! It has awaken everyone here. Some scattered power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Nice little storm moving through right now, lots of lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Thunderboomers near RFD should make it here later on this morning. At first I thought it might be a narrow miss to the east (where things have been developing the past few hours). However, it looks like it should make a beeline towards my area. Pretty excited as these boomers have played hard to get this summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 yep, nice little complex heading in...probably going to soak my ass heading into the office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 maybe end up with 0.10" big effin' deal. Time to be smart and go SSC until it might snow in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 maybe end up with 0.10" big effin' deal. Time to be smart and go SSC until it might snow in Jan. Things a looking good for later tonight into Wednesday, but once again Chicago is hogging all the good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 0.32" here. Brief clearing now, area of stratiform rain associated with MN convection is an hour or less from beginning. That should last awhile and maybe we'll get a real tstorm in there at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Not a drop here. Shallow outflow blew through here, but it didn't do much to temps. Looks like this will mix out later this morning and lead to another potentially very hot day. Remnant outflow boundary could ignite a few storms later today somewhere near here, but I wouldn't bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Picked 0.68" of rain this morning, next batch of rain looks like it will miss to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Sitting here at a wet 69° here. Looks like the forecast is going for 80° today only. Milwaukee can't catch a break! Brewers - looks like Racine got some good rain this morning! and Kenosha definitely did. Kudos to the HRRR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Todays the anniversary of the hottest afternoon Detroit has ever seen, with a high of 105F set July 24, 1934. We had hit 104 five other times (in 1918, also in 1934, twice in 1936, and in 1988)...but this time we actually hit 105. Interesting that the low was a relatively comfortable 69F, compared to so many of our other hot days. Here are the hourly temps at Detroit from July 24, 1934 12am: 73F 01am: 71F 02am: 70F 03am: 69F 04am: 69F 05am: 70F 06am: 70F 07am: 73F 08am: 76F 09am: 83F 10am: 88F 11am: 92F 12pm: 97F 01pm: 100F 02pm: 102F 03pm: 103F 04pm: 105F 05pm: 104F 06pm: 102F 07pm: 101F 08pm: 99F 09pm: 92F 10pm: 89F 11pm: 85F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Todays the anniversary of the hottest afternoon Detroit has ever seen, with a high of 105F set July 24, 1934. We had hit 104 five other times (in 1918, also in 1934, twice in 1936, and in 1988)...but this time we actually hit 105. Interesting that the low was a relatively comfortable 69F, compared to so many of our other hot days. Here are the hourly temps at Detroit from July 24, 1934 12am: 73F 01am: 71F 02am: 70F 03am: 69F 04am: 69F 05am: 70F 06am: 70F 07am: 73F 08am: 76F 09am: 83F 10am: 88F 11am: 92F 12pm: 97F 01pm: 100F 02pm: 102F 03pm: 103F 04pm: 105F 05pm: 104F 06pm: 102F 07pm: 101F 08pm: 99F 09pm: 92F 10pm: 89F 11pm: 85F I would love to see this record broken! Wonder what the dews were during the day. Must have been low given the swing in temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Sitting here at a wet 69° here. Looks like the forecast is going for 80° today only. Milwaukee can't catch a break! Brewers - looks like Racine got some good rain this morning! and Kenosha definitely did. Kudos to the HRRR! Yeah it did a good job. Looks like a solid band of rain coming right towards Waukegan. Looks like I might be able to catch the northern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I would love to see this record broken! Wonder what the dews were during the day. Must have been low given the swing in temp. Yeah I wish I knew the dews. Whats interesting is that when looking at past heat data, I noticed that some of the dews were seemingly atrocious in some our heatwaves in the 1930s/1940s, some of the days that may have not had the gaudy 100 numbers but with highs in the upper 90s and lows near 80. July 1921, which at the moment stands as our 3rd hottest July/month on record (behind July 2011 and 1955) had simply gross lows (in fact the avg low in July 1921 was warmer than either 1955 or 2011), despite the months hottest temp being a non-gawdy 96F. I cant imagine that kind of weather in those non-air conditioned days. Our hottest day (mean temp 91F) was Aug 6, 1918 (104/78) and it appears it was grossly humid that day. Following the day, the morning low on Aug 7th was just 82F (it was in the mid-upper 80s most of the overnight) before once again surging to 100F. had not a cool front allowed temps to dip into the mid-70s during the very late evening, that low of 82F would be the warmest low on record (rather than the current 80F which has been set 4 times (7/1/1931, 7/5/1921, 7/18/1942, and 8/1/2006) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 good job by the euro disintegrating the rain as it nears mke/lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 0.49" so far and plenty more upstream. Still active convection on the southern edge of the rain, I'm hoping for that to train over Madison for awhile, we seem to be in the right spot for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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