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July 2012 General Discussion


Tropical

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Turtle-

At least I had some rain in June...Madison is toast...fried.

Awesome year for severe wx. ... i think i saw some lightning a month ago.

This is the most boring summer ever when it comes to tstorms for me, and ya only a third of an inch of rain at MSN since 6/1! Hopefully ring of fire storms start happening, you'd figure that wouldn't be a problem with such heat.

Lake Mendota sfc temp at 85 °F, lol.

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Was up at the track the last hour or so. Was nice watching the thunderheads to the north build and change shape. Was pretty hot out on the track with little to no wind. Looks like the high will end up being 93 here. Clouds have increased some and knocked back the temp a few degrees. Was hoping to get lucky and get a brief downpour but the good cells just to the north crapped the bed.

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Its drier for sure...dew points down to 55F here...

La Crosse:

MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IS A WARMUP EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE EC

IS THE WARMEST...JUMPING 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 20S WITH

ANOMALIES OF 1.5 TO 2. THE GFS IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THE EC WAS A

BETTER PERFORMER WITH THE SIGNIFICANT STRETCH OF HOT DAYS FOR THE

START OF JULY...AND WILL LEAN ON IT FOR TEMPS. 90S WILL RETURN...AND

CAN/T RULE OUT A 100 DEGREE DAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THE

POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAT RELATED HEADLINES HEADING INTO THE

WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

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Today is 12 minutes shorter than the solstice, will be interesting to see how cool lows can get as we start to lose daylight, especially if the drought continues. Dewpoint of 53 °F now, so 50s aren't out of the question tonight. Give it 2 months and we can start talking about freezes.

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Picked up a trace from a shower that spat for about 15 minutes. Unless more rain occurs later, the streak of days without measurable rainfall is up to eight now. 80/53 now.

On overperformance relative to NWS forecast, my point-and-click this morning at 8 was 84, and I ended up at 93. A nine-degree bust.

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Just picked up 0.04" of rain from a minute long downpour.

Picked up a trace from a shower that spat for about 15 minutes. Unless more rain occurs later, the streak of days without measurable rainfall is up to eight now. 80/53 now.

On overperformance relative to NWS forecast, my point-and-click this morning at 8 was 84, and I ended up at 93. A nine-degree bust.

lol. I just got on here to announce that I just picked up .08" on wonderful, refreshing, unforecasted rain and see that I'm not the only one.

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Today is 12 minutes shorter than the solstice, will be interesting to see how cool lows can get as we start to lose daylight, especially if the drought continues. Dewpoint of 53 °F now, so 50s aren't out of the question tonight. Give it 2 months and we can start talking about freezes.

If dryness continues, we could start seeing freezes in September. That would be crazy - finish off what's left of the crops by then.

Sounds like I was the coolest spot today. High 84°, low 61°. Haven't needed the AC since mid afternoon Saturday.

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Our garden is ripening too fast. Since it got hot so fast our broccoli never made heads. I've been picking ripe tomatoes for 2 weeks. This is a month before they usually ripen. My onions never made a bulb and remained like green onions. The corn fields on the north. and East sides of us are drying up. The leaves are a pale grey/green and crumble if touched. The green beans leaves have flipped and some are turning brown.

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(Somewhat time-sensitive link ...) Link to the forecast prepared by Gilbert Sebenste, NIU's staff meteorologist: http://www.weather.niu.edu/forecast.txt. Today, he really emphasized the impact of dry topsoil on temperatures, and that is reflected in his temperature forecasts for DeKalb (north-central Illinois, 35 miles or so southeast of Rockford, for those who don't know) that have basically 90 or better each of the next seven days.

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If dryness continues, we could start seeing freezes in September. That would be crazy - finish off what's left of the crops by then.

Sounds like I was the coolest spot today. High 84°, low 61°. Haven't needed the AC since mid afternoon Saturday.

Alot of money could be made from investing in corn, wheat, etc. before the harvest numbers come out and prices spike. If only I knew how to do that correctly.

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Today is 12 minutes shorter than the solstice, will be interesting to see how cool lows can get as we start to lose daylight, especially if the drought continues. Dewpoint of 53 °F now, so 50s aren't out of the question tonight. Give it 2 months and we can start talking about freezes.

Woah...getting ahead of yourself buddy? Our normal highs havent even peaked yet. Since my average freeze isnt until oct 20...i will not be getting one in two months.

Sent from my iPhone.

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Woah...getting ahead of yourself buddy? Our normal highs havent even peaked yet. Since my average freeze isnt until oct 20...i will not be getting one in two months.

Sent from my iPhone.

There have been many frosts and freezes in Madison during September ( http://www.crh.noaa....=extr&MONTH=sep ), even a few in August. The Milwaukee area is warmer due to the lake so the first freezes don't start showing up until the latter part of September.

It might be worthwhile to look into the drought conditions during past September freezes in Madison, there's gotta be a correlation. In South Florida freezes have been on the increase where the Everglades have dried up due to manmade canals and activity. Same principle applies to any drought, the less moisture in the air the quicker it cools off due to a lower heat capacity, and less latent heat release from dew forming. Not to mention the fact that there's more land and less water in drought regions than usual, increasing radiational cooling.

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There have been many frosts and freezes in Madison during September ( http://www.crh.noaa....=extr&MONTH=sep ), even a few in August. The Milwaukee area is warmer due to the lake so the first freezes don't start showing up until the latter part of September.

It might be worthwhile to look into the drought conditions during past September freezes in Madison, there's gotta be a correlation. In South Florida freezes have been on the increase where the Everglades have dried up due to manmade canals and activity. Same principle applies to any drought, the less moisture in the air the quicker it cools off due to a lower heat capacity, and less latent heat release from dew forming. Not to mention the fact that there's more land and less water in drought regions than usual, increasing radiational cooling.

It would be interesting to see the lows for September 1988 for starters. I'm betting Madison and many areas in the region experienced early freezes/frosts.

Pleasant evening outside tonight, currently 69°/59°.

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It would be interesting to see the lows for September 1988 for starters. I'm betting Madison and many areas in the region experienced early freezes/frosts.

Pleasant evening outside tonight, currently 69°/59°.

Just checked the data for LAF...there were lows in the mid 40's on August 29/30 and a low of 41 on September 7. First freeze occurred on October 6.

Tropical better hope for a quick flip to a wet pattern after the summer torch.

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It's gonna be interesting to see what happens later this summer once the tropics really heat up. A lot of times that can have a huge impact on the pattern over the conus. I've always called it a constipated pattern, cause everything seems to slow way down and stagnate. Maybe it could do some of us some good and lock us into a wettern pattern at some point.

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As for corn and bean prices, they will most likely fall back towards harvest. Bean futures hit an all_time record today. Similar (1988) years saw prices fall 20 to 30 percent by harvest off of summer highs. Thing to remember is there is a lot of speculation in the market and it is not strictly supply and demand related. Profit taking and continued speculation is going to continue to make the market crazy for the next year at least until stocks can build back up. Also as prices fall end users will begin to cut back, the natural ebb and flow and the supply and demand nature of commodity markets.

The real wild card is weather during the next six or so years. As we can see many years with droughts of this magnitude were followed uncomfortably close by several years. If we are in a 1930s pattern, God help us, the shear importance of US agriculture on a global scales will really be highlighted.

Several years of drought in the coming decade will lead to civil unrest across much of the developing world and will likely creep into places such as China and India as food stocks fall. Interesting and calamitous times are ahead if people start to go hungry.

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Out at White Pines State Park (near Oregon, IL) camping until Thurs.

It was a nice day today...Storms split us this afternoon. Temps are in the upper 60's now as we sit around the bonfire.

Took a drive down to Dixon earlier and there's a decent amount of tree damage just north of town from the activity several days back.

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I notice the clouds associated with the showers to my south. Probably won't make it this far northeast. Winds are up a little stronger than yesterday morning. At 71° now.

Looks like a cooler night ahead with widespread 50s.

temp29.gif

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