KokomoWX Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 The past 10 years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 20% chance of storms in the forecast for Friday and Saturday for Indianapolis. But we know how that'll end up. The sobering stats for Indianapolis below (period of record begins in 1871)... Driest June On Record June 2012: 0.05" (through 6/26) June 1988: 0.36" Driest Month On Record June 2012: 0.05" (through 6/26) March 1910: 0.07" November 1904: 0.11" November 1917: 0.12" October 1963: 0.17" February 1907: 0.18" October: 1934: 0.19" February 1935: 0.20" January 1944: 0.21" October 1908: 0.23" September 1963: 0.24" Including today, measurable precipitation hasn't been observed at IND for 23 straight days. 0.65" of rainfall in the last 49 days, including today. During that time, it rained on only 5 of those days (0.02", 0.03", 0.10", 0.14", 0.36"). Taking this with a huge grain of salt because it's not a perfect predictor for obvious reasons, but interesting nonetheless, here's the total rainfall at IND for the respective 7-8 day periods (thru 180 hours) of the last four runs of the GFS. 6/27 6z run: 0.56" 6/27 0z run: 0.29" 6/26 18z run: 0.53" 6/26 12z run: 0.80" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 20% chance of storms in the forecast for Friday and Saturday for Indianapolis. But we know how that'll end up. The sobering stats for Indianapolis below (period of record begins in 1871)... Driest June On Record June 2012: 0.05" (through 6/26) June 1988: 0.36" Driest Month On Record June 2012: 0.05" (through 6/26) March 1910: 0.07" November 1904: 0.11" November 1917: 0.12" October 1963: 0.17" February 1907: 0.18" October: 1934: 0.19" February 1935: 0.20" January 1944: 0.21" October 1908: 0.23" September 1963: 0.24" Including today, measurable precipitation hasn't been observed at IND for 23 straight days. 0.65" of rainfall in the last 49 days, including today. During that time, it rained on only 5 of those days (0.02", 0.03", 0.10", 0.14", 0.36"). Taking this with a huge grain of salt because it's not a perfect predictor for obvious reasons, but interesting nonetheless, here's the total rainfall at IND for the respective 7-8 day periods (thru 180 hours) of the last four runs of the GFS. 6/27 6z run: 0.56" 6/27 0z run: 0.29" 6/26 18z run: 0.53" 6/26 12z run: 0.80" 25 days in the record for straight days without measurable precip (i think it was in March 1983). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 25 days in the record for straight days without measurable precip (i think it was in March 1983). 39 days is the record. August 14 to September 21, 1908. That was only broken by the 0.01" that was recorded on 9/22, with the next four days recording no precipitation. IND has July-August 1908 as the record in their write up on their homepage, but that's not correct. This June does have the record for the number of consecutive days without measurable precipitation in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Not so regional but my God the fires in Colorado look terrible. Its slowly getting out of control and out of reach. This is FUBAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Red flag warning already for up for tomorrow. Not that much of a surprise.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Michigan has issued some red flag warnings and fire weather watches also. The northern part of the state has had some rain recently, but the southern part is in or near drought conditions. Pray for rain all over the central US and mountain states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 GRR. We are seeing indications that another extended period of around 90 degree heat will be possible next week with little chance of rain. At this time, we do not see a significant chance of beneficial wetting rains through the next 10 days. Michigan is officially becoming under the influence of a drought. You can see the details at the Michigan Drought Monitor page (Click on image to enlarge) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 A local community, Delphi, has already cancelled their public 4th of July fireworks show due to the dry and hot conditions, citing safety risks according to the Chamber president. I imagine they may not be the last to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 A local community, Delphi, has already cancelled their public 4th of July fireworks show due to the dry and hot conditions, citing safety risks according to the Chamber president. I imagine they may not be the last to do so. Elkhart City officials and fire dept. are to decide tomorrow on the same issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 WNDU-TV reports that St. Joseph County IN. emergency crews have battled ten grass fires this month, all caused by cigarette butt littering. Duh, vehicles do have ash trays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 WNDU-TV reports that St. Joseph County IN. emergency crews have battled ten grass fires this month, all caused by cigarette butt littering. Duh, vehicles do have ash trays. My car (Honda Accord) doesn't, for real. There have been a few field fires in this area caused by sparks by passing trains. Unfortunately, it's just not going to take much to start these fires. Just an awful situation all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Starting to get pretty dry again around here, but not as bad as many of you other guys. This is nothing compared to 2005 around here, at least at this point. The corn crop around here still looks pretty good. Most of it is about head high already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 We had 3 field/brush fires today started by cigarette butts. Thought this was interesting from the IND AFD: FIRE WEATHER ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012 RFW CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY. ALL THE GUIDANCE THAT HAS BEEN WORKING WELL IN THIS PATTERN INDICATES EXTREMELY HOT...LOWEST HUMIDITY 20 TO 25 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH. COULD BE THE GREATEST FIRE THREAT THIS FORECASTER HAS EVER SEEN IN 32 YEARS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Marshall County IN emergency management has banned personal use of fireworks in their county because of the drought. Violaters could face hefty fines. It is going to be an extremely interesting week to see how government handles this throughout the region and hopefully there will not be any tragedies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 What are the chances that the drought gets as bad and as widespread as 1988??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Not as big of a jump as I expected: Much bigger than I expected for the state though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Pretty good jump in the "bad categories" in Indiana though. Extreme drought conditions went from 5.2% to 23.46% Severe drought conditions went from 36.31% to 68.58% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 I figured the D1 conditions would spread north. D4 in N IN, that's pretty significant/nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 The next one is going to be really bad if these MCS complexes don't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 The next one is going to be really bad if these MCS complexes don't pan out. Watch them train on a line from the Indiana-Michigan state line and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Watch them train on a line from the Indiana-Michigan state line and north. Hrrr Ruc, which did well today develops one in northern Illinois and starts to track it into central Indiana at 15hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Palmer Index: Washington Post article: "Drought Threatens U.S. Food Prices" http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/drought-threatens-us-food-prices/2012/06/27/gJQAzNZd7V_story.html?wprss=rss_homepage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 The next one is going to be really bad if these MCS complexes don't pan out. Tonight is mostly falling over areas that aren't really in a drought like the rest of the state. Just a couple of weeks ago, they weren't even classified in NW IN on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 00Z GFS trying to dump some rain on the drought areas the next few weeks. Have a hard believing that. I think the dry pattern is here to stay for a couple more weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 1988 Again?? June 2012's Global Wind Oscillation Footprint is showing a Very Summer-like La Nina Pattern induced by the Atmospheric, not so much the developing "El Nino" in the Pacific Ocean. The Sky or Atmosphere is still modulating in a La Nina-like form. Essentially Climatology says Hot & Dry summer for the center of the country in general. That is exactly what is happening. Now, comparing 1988 Global Wind Oscillation to this year 2012 from June and after. It's very similar. See The Graphic Below for more details: If this GWO La Nina Pattern Atmospheric Base state does not leave soon, this drought will get nothing but worse. Unfortunately, looking at MJO forecasts, being in phases 1 & 2 does not help the cause. Also, a Negative PDO in generally modulates the decadal enso cycle to stay in La Nina Modes, both atmospherically and oceanic-wise. Being honest, I don't see any transition in the 1st half of July to drought alleviation. This is bad news for pollination/tasseling patterns of many crops. After, that point it's usually game set and match for Production/Yield Values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Tonight is mostly falling over areas that aren't really in a drought like the rest of the state. Just a couple of weeks ago, they weren't even classified in NW IN on the map. Would have been nice if this positioned itself 30 or so miles to the south. Southern Lake/Porter Counties are definitely more rural with bean and corn acres, but further south into the heart of Jasper/Newton Counties are where a lot of farm acres are located. At any rate the storm missed the house by inches it seemed. Could see the core and the smell of rain was in the air, but all we managed was gusty winds and 5 droplets of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Drought bust fail: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Today could provide relief to a large area in IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I've accepted the inevitable...bring on the drought for SE Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.