IWXwx Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I was wrong in my post above about FWA experiencing their 3rd driest November. It will be their 2nd driest November per an article posted on IWX's web site: http://www.crh.noaa....=89774&source=0 Some highlights for FWA 1 0.23" 1917 2 0.60" 2012 (through 11/28) 3 0.62" 1976 4 0.68" 1980 5 0.73" 1939 With only 3 days of measurable precipitation, this month ties the record for fewest number of days in any month with measurable precipitation. Highlights for SBN 1 0.26" 2012 (thru 11/28) 2 0.37" 1917,1904 4 0.82" 1924 5 1.24" 1998 6 1.25" 1910 This November will also rank as the 4th driest month of any month on record. I know that I've posted about it a couple of times, but this could get real nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 One can hope, but here's the 12z GEFS mean precipitation in 120 hour increments...which takes us to December 14. Beyond day 10 is probably getting a little questionable, but the signal is sorta there. We'll see. Of course these maps do little for the real deep drought areas of the Plains. Days 1-5 Days 6-10 Days 11-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I know that I've posted about it a couple of times, but this could get real nasty. With all due respect, this was pretty nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 With all due respect, this was pretty nasty. Yes it was, but can you imagine this subforum with a second crappy snow season in a row? EDIT: As we discussed little precip may not have a lot of effect on snow totals. After all, even 1 inch in a month could translate to 10" of snow or more. But the FWA and SBN November numbers won't make much snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 IWX, I see 1917 on those lists. I'd be down for a January 1918 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Yes it was, but can you imagine this subforum with a second crappy snow season in a row? EDIT: As we discussed little precip may not have a lot of effect on snow totals. After all, even 1 inch in a month could translate to 10" of snow or more. But the FWA and SBN November numbers won't make much snow Yes I can. I've read the complaint thread. But it'll be whatever it's gonna be. Call me an unabashed optimist, but I don't see a need for alarm at this point...talking about precipitation, and for our neck of the woods (Indiana). I think activity will be picking up soon...though it may be more wet than white for us in the near and medium term. But we'll see. Of course we're also entering our driest climatological time of the year, which bottoms out in January and February. To be honest, I told Hoosier earlier this month that my greatest "worry" for this winter was going to dryness, in so many words. But that's chucking :weenie: at the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Yes I can. I've read the complaint thread. But it'll be whatever it's gonna be. Call me an unabashed optimist, but I don't see a need for alarm at this point...talking about precipitation, and for our neck of the woods (Indiana). I think activity will be picking up soon...though it may be more wet than white for us in the near and medium term. But we'll see. Of course we're also entering our driest climatological time of the year, which bottoms out in January and February. To be honest, I told Hoosier earlier this month that my greatest "worry" for this winter was going to dryness, in so many words. But that's chucking :weenie: at the wall. I know a lot are worried about the dry conditions. But look lets put it this way, there is NOT a distinct correlation to dry Falls and winter snowfall (some years snowy, some not). There IS a correlation with above average Fall NA snowcover and a colder winter in the northern U.S. (not a guarentee, but a much stronger correlation than the one of dry falls and their impact on winter snowfall). Funny thing..Im the one who can rattle off random years snowfall totals at the snap of a finger, but for ME, Its not about total snowfall as it is for the kind of winter it is. Below normal snowfall but above normal snowcover would be a HUGE improvement imo over last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 IWX, I see 1917 on those lists. I'd be down for a January 1918 redux. Agree. Backloaded FTW January 20, 1918 near Mentone, IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 1918 was the snowiest January here. oct: 1.1" nov: 1.5" dec: 8.4" jan: 52.6" feb: 6.5" mar: 8.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 For Indianapolis in 2012 (records since 1871)... 15th driest November in recorded history. 24th wettest Fall in recorded history. Interesting combo. If we look at the top 25 for both lists, driest Novembers and wettest Falls, only one other year is on both...1926. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 And just for fun, the following winter of 1926-27 compared to today's normals. Maybe this should go in the complaint thread. 1926-27 season snowfall totals in Indiana. EVV: 14.6" FWA: 24.6" IND: 26.6" SBN: 38.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 We managed to take a nice biet out of local drought conditions despite never really getting into a favorable wet patter. I have to imagine it won't take much to drag us back down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 This may be my new favorite analog for this winter. Alright, one more about it and we can get back on topic. 1926-27 season totals in other locales... Alpena: 77.0" Chicago: 23.8" Cleveland: 34.7" Columbus: 13.0" Detroit: 47.5" Des Moines: 13.0" Duluth: 60.7" Grand Rapids: 37.4" Green Bay: 58.8" La Crosse: 39.6" Louisville: 15.2" Madison: 43.8" Milwaukee: 58.5" Minneapolis: 30.1" Moline: 19.7" Rockford: 26.5" St. Louis: 19.2" Toledo: 27.8" Toronto: 45.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I can't help myself. Move it to its proper thread if need be Hoosier. Sorry. 500H anomalies. West coast trough...check. SE/southern ridging...check. Some sort of 50/50 low...check. Positive NAO...check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Pretty dry week for most. Munising must be buried. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 I can't help myself. Move it to its proper thread if need be Hoosier. Sorry. 500H anomalies. West coast trough...check. SE/southern ridging...check. Some sort of 50/50 low...check. Positive NAO...check. Are you expecting a winter like this!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Just checked the national map for the first time in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Are you expecting a winter like this!? No. I really have no idea on how it'll turn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 ...EXTREMELY DRY IN 2012 ... THROUGH NOVEMBER...2012 HAS BEEN MARKED BY EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS...PARTICULARLY IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. AT ROCKFORD...20.86 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN RECORDED FROM JANUARY 1ST TO NOVEMBER 30TH. THIS IS THE DRIEST JANUARY TO NOVEMBER PERIOD ON RECORD IN ROCKFORD...WITH RECORDS BACK TO 1906. HERE ARE THE TOP 10 DRIEST JANUARY THROUGH NOVEMBER PERIODS IN ROCKFORD: 1) 20.86 2012 6) 22.87 1976 2) 22.17 2003 7) 23.02 1988 3) 22.27 1910 8) 23.54 1958 4) 22.63 2005 9) 23.64 1922 5) 22.76 1971 10) 23.78 1948 THE OVERALL DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD IN ROCKFORD WAS 1922...WITH 22.87 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. THUS IF DECEMBER 2012 HAS LESS PRECIPITATION THAN NORMAL...2012 WILL BE THE DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD...SINCE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR DECEMBER IN ROCKFORD IS 1.98 INCHES. FOR CHICAGO...24.70 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN RECORDED FROM JANUARY 1ST TO NOVEMBER 30TH. THIS IS THE TENTH DRIEST JANUARY TO NOVEMBER PERIOD ON RECORD IN CHICAGO...WITH RECORDS BACK TO 1871. HERE ARE THE TOP 10 DRIEST JANUARY THROUGH NOVEMBER PERIODS IN CHICAGO: 1) 20.81 1956 6) 23.07 1930 2) 20.85 1934 7) 23.65 1971 3) 21.92 1962 8) 23.78 1917 4) 22.73 2005 9) 24.24 1897 5) 22.83 1901 10) 24.70 2012 THE OVERALL DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD IN CHICAGO WAS 1956...WITH 22.07 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR 2012 TO FINISH IN THE TOP 10 DRIEST YEARS ON RECORD IN CHICAGO...1.44 INCHES OR LESS OF PRECIPITATION WOULD NEED TO FALL IN DECEMBER. NORMAL DECEMBER PRECIPITATION FOR CHICAGO IS 2.25 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entropy Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Wow! I didn't realize it's been that dry over in Chicago. Even though precipitation is apparently above normal for the year here, it still seems kind of dry for this time of the year. I thought some of the creeks and streams looked a little dry and the WaterWatch page does show most of them below to well below normal levels for this time of the year. Of course, one big rain storm could change all of this, but for the time being anyways it seems a little dry. Besides the torrential rain from the remnants of Sandy and the ensuing days of clouds and showery weather, it's been fairly dry this fall with a lot of sunny days which is kind of unusual for this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Eyeballing the Palmer drought maps from previous years, it's probably safe to say that nationally we are in as bad of shape heading into winter as we've been since at least 1988 and possibly before. Might have to go back to the 1950s to find such widespread drought at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 It's dry as a bone out here. I hope we can get some good rain tonight and tomorrow, even if I do wish it were snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 If there's ANY consolation for this terrible drought, Corn and Wheat Futures will go even higher if a dent isn't put into that drought by this upcoming Spring, especially if it expands back into the Ohio Valley. It'll be a nice opportunity for those who are about their money to make some decent chunk change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 If there's ANY consolation for this terrible drought, Corn and Wheat Futures will go even higher if a dent isn't put into that drought by this upcoming Spring, especially if it expands back into the Ohio Valley. It'll be a nice opportunity for those who are about their money to make some decent chunk change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 On the flip side, CLE just needs 3.02" through the end of the year to crack into the top 10 wettest years on record. Even without Sandy, we'd still be running about normal for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Percentages for the Midwest are basically unchanged from last week. Then there's this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Percentages for the Midwest are basically unchanged from last week. Then there's this At least we're on the "right side" of that map. So we got that going for ourselves... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 At least we're on the "right side" of that map. So we got that going for ourselves... Yep. But unsettling to think if that much of the country is still in drought heading into Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Yep. But unsettling to think if that much of the country is still in drought heading into Spring. Well we'll see. Looking very far into the future...from what I gather, -PDO phase tends to bring more bouts of dryness/drought to the middle sections of the country. And some believe we've already started that next phase of -PDO after being in a +PDO (tends to run in 30-40 year periods). But that's probably a different discussion for another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Well we'll see. Looking very far into the future...from what I gather, -PDO phase tends to bring more bouts of dryness/drought to the middle sections of the country. And some believe we've already started that next phase of -PDO after being in a +PDO (tends to run in 30-40 year periods). But that's probably a different discussion for another day. Yeah, I'd say the PDO cycle flipped about 5 years ago. Regarding the PDO relationship to drought, I remember seeing a paper about PDO/ENSO strength/state but can't recall which combination was the worst. Dust Bowl is of course the worst drought on record but there is evidence of droughts that exceeded it even in the past 300-400 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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