Drought in Lower Lakes/Ohio Valley

[tornadotony]

Well... Debbie fail..

Looks like she is just going to meander north into FL/GA..

ughh...

Yep. All Debby's going to do is exacerbate the heat situation this week by enhancing large-scale subsidence over the Midwest. Those 30C+ 850mb temps on the Euro for Thursday probably aren't far-fetched.

As for the short-term vs. long-term question, my fear is that it might be the latter. The Midwest drought seems to be an extension of the Plains drought from last year (even though that has moderated somewhat, especially on its southern edges). Add in the scorching spring we had and the summer we are having right now (which is probably only going to get worse into July), and the potential for El Nino this winter, which enhances the subtropical jet, weakens the polar jet, and often leaves the Midwest warmer and somewhat drier than average, it doesn't look too good.

[Geos]

Looks like Debby will crawl at a snails pace due north into W FL, SE AL, & S GA.

Before the heat ridge was forecast, there was a stalled frontal boundary across the lower lakes - I think that's gone officially now.

Well it's there, but the qpf is less. Thanks to Debby!

[illinois]

With the heat this week across Illinois areas along and south of I-74 are going to see wide spread loss of corn production and a significant loss of yield in beans. In southeastern Illinois tasseling corn will likely be a complete loss. Things are going downhill in a big way over the next five days.

If we don't see some rain in the next 10 days beans will likely be close to a complete loss as well.

http://www.wsiltv.com/news/local/Drought-Threatens-Crops-159543125.html

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304898704577482813138156918.html

[SchaumburgStormer]

Saw this via a friend and found it entertaining....

[Geos]

MKX updated their drought update: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=84023&source=0

Month to date % of normal rainfall:

[WxMidwest]

Ah, the next drought monitor should be fantastic for Northern ILL/Southern Wis, As expected... Rockford's stats are horrible.....

Better hope this area gets a flip pattern like 1992, instead of consistent drought like 1988. 1992 was very similiar, but then started dropping above normal levels of precip in the last 6 months of the year.. I don't see that happening this year..

[B-Rent]

Sadly, Indiana state law doesn't allow counties to ban fireworks from 6/29-7/9. Lots of burn bans across Indiana right now The image is time sensitve.

We were at the air show this weekend, my poor little girl has cuts all over her from playing on the dry crunchy grass. Its been almost a month since I've mowed. Only a T of rain at the house this month.

[IWXwx]

B-Rent, I agree with you concerning the fireworks. We are going to publicize that anyone who causes a fire where fire dept. response is needed is subject to being charged with criminal recklessness.

I'm gonna go ahead and mow my scraggly weeds so the lawn is an even brown.

[Chicago WX]

Last 60 and 90 day percentage of normal rainfall maps in the Midwest. Good on the bulk of Minnesota, the northern half of Wisconsin, U.P., and northwest northern lower Michigan I guess.

[A-L-E-K]

pretty much cannot ignore/downplay the drought situation at this point, it's real and likely to get at least a good deal worse. Depressing stuff on all levels.

[B-Rent]

B-Rent, I agree with you concerning the fireworks. We are going to publicize that anyone who causes a fire where fire dept. response is needed is subject to being charged with criminal recklessness.

I hate working field fires. At least since we moved, I'm on a department with out a tanker/grass truck or any fields. So its not as big of a concern. I imagine that map will stay red most of the summer.

[Chicago WX]

pretty much cannot ignore/downplay the drought situation at this point, it's real and likely to get at least a good deal worse. Depressing stuff on all levels.

At this point and going forward...it's looking a little dire. Not to be overly dramatic/sensationalize it of course, but it sure doesn't look like anything resembling widespread relief is in the cards for awhile. Really really awful.

[Nic]

Cottonwood trees in my yard just lost half of their leaves with the wind from the cold front this morning. It looks like fall outside other trees are dropping leaves as well . I think they will probably do ok even if it does not rain for the whole summer most trees take multiple years of drought to die. Some people are lighting fireworks the last few nights, I don't understand why they think it is a good idea.

[Hoosier]

At this point and going forward...it's looking a little dire. Not to be overly dramatic/sensationalize it of course, but it sure doesn't look like anything resembling widespread relief is in the cards for awhile. Really really awful.

Seems like we may be heading for the worst Midwestern drought since 1988. Whether it can actually eclipse that one on the larger scale I don't know but it's a possibility that is not diminishing by the day.

[A-L-E-K]

Seems like we may be heading for the worst Midwestern drought since 1988. Whether it can actually eclipse that one on the larger scale I don't know but it's a possibility that is not diminishing by the day.

This really does feel like early/mid winter when we starting to talk about whether snowfall futility records would fall...I guess the biggest difference is that the hot/dry cycle has such a nasty feedback that it goes way beyond simply being locked into a terrible pattern.

[LizardMafia]

Sadly, Indiana state law doesn't allow counties to ban fireworks from 6/29-7/9. Lots of burn bans across Indiana right now The image is time sensitve.

We were at the air show this weekend, my poor little girl has cuts all over her from playing on the dry crunchy grass. Its been almost a month since I've mowed. Only a T of rain at the house this month.

I can attest that the grass at the air show was pretty sharp. Son was sworn into the air force on Saturday, parents had to hang in the grass for about 15 minutes before the ceremony. Ended up with all sort of marks over my hands and legs.

[Geos]

Last 60 and 90 day percentage of normal rainfall maps in the Midwest. Good on the bulk of Minnesota, the northern half of Wisconsin, U.P., and northwest northern lower Michigan I guess.

That's one sharp cut off line at Sheboygan, WI! It seems very few storms have gotten past that city this month. Starting to hear more and more about the drought on the news now.

My neighbors have been firing off fireworks for some time. I'm afraid one of their rockets is going to land in some dry grass or cattails and start a fire.

[Chicago WX]

I didn't realize Chicago's driest summer on record was so paltry. 3.16" in 1894 (1.96" in June, 0.60" in July, and 0.60" in August).

Top 5 driest...

3.16" in 1894

5.08" in 1991

5.18" in 2005

5.54" in 1936

5.57" in 1922

[Hoar_Frost]

I didn't realize Chicago's driest summer on record was so paltry. 3.16" in 1894 (1.96" in June, 0.60" in July, and 0.60" in August).

Top 5 driest...

3.16" in 1894

5.08" in 1991

5.18" in 2005

5.54" in 1936

5.57" in 1922

It's interesting to note that 1988 does not appear on this list. I seem to recall the absence of 1988 from when I looked up these stats back in 2005.

[MN Transplant]

It's interesting to note that 1988 does not appear on this list. I seem to recall the absence of 1988 from when I looked up these stats back in 2005.

The problem with '88 was that it came on top of a very dry start to the year. By the end of August, Iowa was on its driest year on record and Illinois was 2nd only to 1936. Wisconsin was also 2nd driest to that point, and Ohio was 3rd.

[Indystorm]

Interesting comment that IN state law doesn't allow counties to ban fireworks during the dates indicated. But what about cities? I've been reading up here in Michiana media that Elkhart is possibly considering canceling their official firework display this year. IWX's point about criminal recklessness is well taken. If other areas publicize that same policy with respect to a needed call out of fire personnel because of personal fireworks getting out of hand we might be able to mitigate the danger.

[Nic]

I don't think Ohio even has burn bans.

[Jim Martin]

The drought is getting worse here in Ohio, especially in the northwest. The area stretchs from Toledo, to Findlay, and Lima westward.

I fear this map will feature more brown and orange colors as the week progresses.

[TheWeatherPimp]

I don't think Ohio even has burn bans.

We do and several counties are already under them.

[Chicago WX]

It's interesting to note that 1988 does not appear on this list. I seem to recall the absence of 1988 from when I looked up these stats back in 2005.

Yeah, I always expected it to be there, alas...JJA 1988 is the 19th driest on record.

June 1988 is the 9th driest on record, but July and August 1988 are both outside their respective monthly top 20 driest.

[Chicago WX]

I'm going to try to do a weekly updates with these numbers for Indiana. As painful as it may be...

June precipitation and departures (through June 25th)

Bloomington: 0.20" (-3.84")

Evansville: 0.15" (-3.08")

Fort Wayne: 0.25" (-3.31")

Indianapolis: 0.05" (-3.49")

Indianapolis Eagle Creek: 0.01" (-3.69")

Lafayette: 0.31" (-3.11")

Muncie: 0.70" (-3.19")

Shelbyville: 0.05" (-3.71")

South Bend: 0.78" (-2.44")

Terre Haute: 0.23" (-3.51")

Year to date precipitation and departures (thru June 25th)

Bloomington: 11.95" (-11.98")

Evansville: 11.53" (-11.94")

Fort Wayne: 10.60" (-7.76")

Indianapolis: 15.11" (-5.83")

Indianapolis Eagle Creek: 13.15" (-7.36")

Lafayette: 11.06" (-6.38")

Muncie: 12.93" (-6.52")

Shelbyville: 13.10" (-8.44")

South Bend: 12.08" (-4.86")

Terre Haute: 12.53" (-9.65")

Driest Junes on record

Evansville: 0.38" in 1933

Fort Wayne: 0.28" in 1910

Indianapolis: 0.36" in 1988

South Bend: 0.48" in 1988

[Nic]

We do and several counties are already under them.

They must not be doing a good job alerting anyone because I can't find a website that shows what counties are under one, the local news around here hasn't been talking about them.

[B-Rent]

Interesting comment that IN state law doesn't allow counties to ban fireworks during the dates indicated. But what about cities? I've been reading up here in Michiana media that Elkhart is possibly considering canceling their official firework display this year. IWX's point about criminal recklessness is well taken. If other areas publicize that same policy with respect to a needed call out of fire personnel because of personal fireworks getting out of hand we might be able to mitigate the danger.

IC 22-11-14-10.5

"Use" defined; adoption of ordinance by county or municipality concerning use of consumer fireworks

Sec. 10.5. (a) As used in this section, the term "use" means the ability of a county or municipality to regulate the days and hours when consumer fireworks may be used, ignited, or discharged.

( Notwithstanding any other provision of this chapter:

(1) a county may adopt an ordinance concerning the use of consumer fireworks in the unincorporated areas of the county; and

(2) a municipality may adopt an ordinance concerning the use of consumer fireworks within the corporate limits of the municipality.

© An ordinance adopted under this section:

(1) may limit the use of consumer fireworks in the county or municipality;

(2) may not be more lenient than a rule adopted by a state agency concerning the use of fireworks; and

(3) may not limit the use of consumer fireworks:

(A) between the hours of 5:00 p.m. and two (2) hours after sunset on June 29, June 30, July 1, July 2, July 3, July 5, July 6, July 7, July 8, and July 9;

( between the hours of 10:00 a.m. and 12:00 midnight on July 4; and

© between the hours of 10:00 a.m. on December 31 and 1:00 a.m. on January 1.

However, in researching this, I see IDHS has put out guidance saying that this IC code may apply to the fireworks in burn bans. Really what it comes down to, is people using common sense, and/or an attorney or someone rich getting arrested under 36-8-2-4 for using fireworks and taking it to court.

IC 36-8-2-4

Regulation of dangerous conduct or property

Sec. 4. A unit may regulate conduct, or use or possession of property, that might endanger the public health, safety, or welfare.

[WxMidwest]

Unfortunately, The Drought looks most likely, and the analogs of 1988 are there, allthough it may not be of the same geological distribution when comparing 2012 to 1988. That being said, Since 1980, the 2 deadliest events in the United States have been the Drought of 1980 & 1988. The Costliest Event was the 1988 drought at one time before Hurricane Katrina came along. Check out the graphic below, as many have been saying on this board this is close to dire straights. This could be the biggest loss for Corn/Soybean farmers in many many years.

[Snohio]

The drought is getting worse here in Ohio, especially in the northwest. The area stretchs from Toledo, to Findlay, and Lima westward.

I fear this map will feature more brown and orange colors as the week progresses.

NW Ohio in interesting and has a sharp rainfall cutoff due to thunderstorms. Toledo is officially right around normal for the month and about 2 inches below for the year. Areas just to the west, including Wauseon and Defiance are much drier. Toledo area got over 2 inches of rain June 17-18 while those areas got almost nothing.