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Drought in Lower Lakes/Ohio Valley


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Wettest September-October's in recorded history for Indianapolis (records since 1871).

13.52" in 1986

13.05" in 2003

12.01" in 1926

11.67" in 2001

11.33" in 1890

11.28" in 1883

10.98" in 1989

10.84" in 1919

10.43" in 1932

10.28" in 1955

10.12" in 1925

9.82" in 1896

9.49" in 1996

9.49" in 2012 (through October 5)

9.36" in 1881

9.24" in 1921

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Drought has definitely improved for IN and parts of downstate IL. Active weather pattern the rest of the month should push the moderate to severe drought conditions further west or out of the picture completely for our subforum area.

midwest_dm.png

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With the rain today and the expected heavier rainfall tonight/tomorrow, locations across the area have likely seen peak deficits for the drought.

Here is a list of peak deficits across the LOT CWA...Most of which peaked yesterday.

Peak deficit per site:

DPA: 15.97" (-14.26") Oct 12th

RFD: 18.01" (-12.07") Oct 12th

Here: 18.71" (-11.96") Oct 12th

ARR: 18.34" (-11.52") Oct 12th

MDW: 25.81" (-10.12") Aug 25th

PWK: 16.96" (-9.95") Oct 12th

VPZ: 20.99" (-8.98") Oct 12th

UGN: 20.22" (-8.91") Oct 12th

ORD: 21.17" (-8.37") Oct 12th

LOT: 24.43" (-7.85") Oct 12th

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Michigan-Huron is lower then last year at this time, but not by much. I think it was 2003, when the Michigan-Huron was the lowest that I've ever seen. Dockets and slips had to be closed up and down the western shoreline because of low water levels.

mh_sc_cl.gif

Saw this posted in another thread. And it seems relevant here too.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37243-lake-michigan-predicted-to-reach-record-low-level/

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2012 far and away the driest June-July for Indianapolis in their recorded history (since 1871). Also the driest May-July in history. Lists below...

Driest June-July

0.92" in 2012

2.45" in 1930

2.78" in 1940

3.08" in 1991

3.41" in 1967

3.55" in 1954

3.58" in 1936

3.66" in 1922

3.67" in 1908

3.85" in 1893

3.86" in 1887

Driest May-July

3.62" in 2012

4.14" in 1930

5.06" in 1936

5.43" in 1895

5.46" in 1911

5.46" in 1966

5.53" in 1954

6.04" in 1914

6.08" in 1934

6.09" in 2007

6.13" in 1988

A change for the better for Indianapolis.

Wettest August-September

16.11" in 1989

15.01" in 2003

14.80" in 1921

14.30" in 1926

14.24" in 2012

Wettest August-October

19.03" in 1989

17.69" in 2003

17.01" in 2012 (through Oct 19)

16.98" in 1926

16.50" in 1921

Also, Fall 2012 already ranks as the 46th wettest in recorded history for Indianapolis (out of 142 years).

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11.22" total precipitation at IND this Fall (through 2pm today). With still a ways to go, it's already the 32nd wettest Fall in recorded history for Indianapolis (since 1871).

Top 10 Wettest Falls

18.71" in 1881

18.15" in 1921

18.08" in 1883

16.69" in 2003

16.24" in 1993

15.84" in 1986

15.71" in 1996

15.60" in 1955

15.25" in 1925

14.68" in 1890

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Updated precipitation totals and departures for Indiana.

YEARLY: January 1 - October 23, 2012 precipitation totals and departures in Indiana

Bloomington*: 27.28" -11.94"

Evansville: 27.87" -8.47"

Fort Wayne: 25.44" -6.34"

Indianapolis: 33.71" -1.07"

Indianapolis Eagle Creek: 33.33" +0.09"

Muncie: 29.01" -4.05"

Shelbyville: 24.88" -10.95"

South Bend: 30.32" -0.96"

Terre Haute*: 24.30" -13.09"

Valparaiso: 23.25" -7.95"

FALL: September 1 - October 23, 2012 precipitation totals and departures in Indiana

Bloomington: 10.98" +4.95"

Evansville: 9.90" +4.48"

Fort Wayne: 6.58" +1.64"

Indianapolis: 11.22" +5.77"

Indianapolis Eagle Creek: 11.20" +6.61"

Muncie: 10.09" +4.94"

Shelbyville: 8.16" +2.61"

South Bend: 5.74" -0.27"

Terre Haute: 6.76" +0.65"

Valparaiso: 4.46" -1.20"

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Michigan-Huron is lower then last year at this time, but not by much. I think it was 2003, when the Michigan-Huron was the lowest that I've ever seen. Dockets and slips had to be closed up and down the western shoreline because of low water levels.

mh_sc_cl.gif

Wow, Look what storm surge and 7" of rain from Sandy did to Lake Erie!

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I noticed the entire subforum now is free of D3 conditions! 4" of rain here last month definitely paid off. Rivers and streams have normal water levels in them, retention ponds and wetlands now all have more water in them.

Surprised to see Ohio has that little bit of drought left, given the moisture from Sandy!

midwest_dm.png

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August-October 2012 was the 2nd wettest such period on record for Indianapolis.

Top 10 Wettest August-Octobers (1871 to present)

19.03" in 1989

18.11" in 2012

17.69" in 2003

16.98" in 1926

16.50" in 1921

16.33" in 1890

14.70" in 1986

14.36" in 1993

14.27" in 1919

14.14" in 2001

Fall 2012 currently ranks as the 29th wettest on record for Indianapolis (11.68" through yesterday).

Top 10 Wettest Falls (1871 to present)

18.71" in 1881

18.15" in 1921

18.08" in 1883

16.69" in 2003

16.24" in 1993

15.84" in 1986

15.71" in 1996

15.60" in 1955

15.25" in 1925

14.68" in 1890

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  • 2 weeks later...

Here's a comparison between now and August 7, when the drought was pretty much at its peak region wide

post-14-0-84251200-1353182632_thumb.png

Eastern areas have seen huge improvements since August with lesser reductions farther west. It will be interesting to track throughout winter and see where we are come Spring.

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After a relatively wet October, Northern IN and Northwest OH have suddenly become dry again, with no rain forecast for the next seven days. Is this a precursor of things to come? I hope not going into winter, although it has me worried. Some November numbers:

FWA 0.53 (-1.16)

SBN 0.25 (-1.60)

LAF 0.68 (-0.97)

AOH 0.76 (-1.19)

MBY 0.61

As I said, these departures are going to be worse a week from now.

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Having driven first along I-80 from central Pennsylvania to Youngstown, Ohio, then on US-30 from Mansfield, Ohio, to the Chicago area the other day, I noticed that the condition of the roadside-ditch vegetation is markedly different in the areas where there was no or less severe drought (central Ohio eastward) versus those areas where there was more severe drought for at least a time this past spring through fall (so, central Ohio westward). Especially in the Fort Wayne area and over here in northern Illinois, the toll that the drought had taken was still clear. Although vegetation should be brown (dormant, that is) everywhere this time of year, it seemed much less thick in the most drought-stricken areas. And, on my street here in Geneva, both sides of the street used to be lined with mature deciduous trees. However, since early August, all the trees except one on the side of the street opposite me have been cut down due to drought or emerald-ash-borer infestation (or a combination of both).

Nonetheless, it is good to see that things seem to be improving somewhat. However, the lack of rain in some areas of late is a bit concerning. Yes, there can be a snowy winter (probably via frequent clippers) with little liquid-equivalent precipitation. But, farmers and others are going to be wanting a wetter fall, winter, and early spring to replenish soil moisture.

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After a relatively wet October, Northern IN and Northwest OH have suddenly become dry again, with no rain forecast for the next seven days. Is this a precursor of things to come? I hope not going into winter, although it has me worried. Some November numbers:

FWA 0.53 (-1.16)

SBN 0.25 (-1.60)

LAF 0.68 (-0.97)

AOH 0.76 (-1.19)

MBY 0.61

As I said, these departures are going to be worse a week from now.

I can find no correlation, statistically, that November precipitation is a fore teller to the winter's precipitation.

Just using IND as the focal point, the following recent Novembers were pretty dry and the following winters weren't too bad: 2007, 2008, 2009. Of course, as someone already said...don't need above normal precip to get above normal snow. Not always anyway.

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Just for fun...some dry Novembers that flipped to a wetter December for Indianapolis...

1904: 0.11"...4.85"

1949: 0.89"...4.32"

1981: 1.12"...3.40"

2009: 1.16"...3.30"

1901: 1.17"...4.09"

1971: 1.29"...6.02"

...and some wet Novembers that flipped to a drier December.

1993: 8.30"...2.18"

1992: 7.88"...1.89"

1913: 6.20"...0.49"

1955: 5.32"...0.70"

2004: 5.14"...1.95"

1925: 5.13"...1.09"

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  • 2 weeks later...

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