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Drought in Lower Lakes/Ohio Valley


Geos

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With no rain so far today, Paducah has crossed the 16" below average threshold for the year. Normal precip through today is 29.21"...they've only had 13.15"

.53 inches at my house today with some small hail but it all fell in 10 minutes and the sun has been out ever since...Didnt do any good.

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Since the conventional wisdom is that we are heading for an El Nino winter, I wanted to take a look at winter precip in El Nino years and whether there is hope of eradicating or at least greatly reducing the drought. Here is DJF precip in weak/moderate/strong Ninos as defined by the trimonthly readings in Nino region 3.4 (1981-2010 climatology period).

Weak:

post-14-0-14984600-1343591455_thumb.png

Moderate:

post-14-0-60430800-1343591503_thumb.png

Strong:

post-14-0-66522700-1343591559_thumb.png

Weak/Moderate composite:

post-14-0-93479700-1343591628_thumb.png

If Fall does not put a big dent in this drought, then it is very possible that we will be dealing with it in some capacity by the time we get to Spring 2013.

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The drought has been good for one thing...I've never had such good tasting tomatoes... Been picking for a few weeks now and they've been excellent. Have a lot of peppers too. I've probably only watered my tomatoes twice during the heat wave...I just keep them weed free and mulched.

Man, we didn't even put in a garden this year. Probably for the best though, considering the dry conditions. We'd probably be looking at a bunch of dead plant matter by now.

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Pretty sad looking corn field a few miles southeast of Erie. Most of the corn fields don't look quite this bad, but most of them are pretty bad looking. Up until about a month ago or so the corn actually looked pretty good around here. Right around the time the corn started to tassel the worst of the heat and dryness began. Looks like we're going to finish July with less than 3/4" of rain. MLI even worse with only 0.45".

drought073012.jpg

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I have two mature Hackberry trees out front, and another one in the side yard. They're already turning yellow/brown and dropping leaves like crazy. I also have a walnut tree that is already turning yellow. Walnut trees do lose their leaves much earlier than most other trees though.

Just driving around out in the country the landscape is already starting to look very autumnlike. Between the corn turning yellow, and some of the area trees changing color it looks more like late September than late July.

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I spent the last week riding bicycle across Iowa (RAGBRAI) and noticed areas where crops still looked decent but also saw corn with ears dropped and past dent stage and drying rapidly. I took a nature break in a corn field at one point that had tassels at waist high (not much privacy there). Beans had weak podset and without any moisture will be small like bb's. I'm also a beekeeper and so I keep an eye on things that are blooming. Chicory was done across much of the state and Queen Anne's Lace was nearing the end. I did see goldenrod starting to bloom in places which bothers me a lot because that's generally one of the last main nectar flows and would rather have that blooming in September/October, not July/August. The sunchokes were also starting to bloom in the drier areas and they typically bloom late with the goldenrod.

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Soo sad to see all the drought reports and pictures in the above posts. As dry as we've been here in lower Michigan for most of July, we really got lucky the last week. In the last 6 days I recorded 3.42" of rain. (25th 1.51", 26th .06", 27th 1.34" and last night .51") I'm counting my blessings.

Mike

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2012 far and away the driest June-July for Indianapolis in their recorded history (since 1871). Also the driest May-July in history. Lists below...

Driest June-July

0.92" in 2012

2.45" in 1930

2.78" in 1940

3.08" in 1991

3.41" in 1967

3.55" in 1954

3.58" in 1936

3.66" in 1922

3.67" in 1908

3.85" in 1893

3.86" in 1887

Driest May-July

3.62" in 2012

4.14" in 1930

5.06" in 1936

5.43" in 1895

5.46" in 1911

5.46" in 1966

5.53" in 1954

6.04" in 1914

6.08" in 1934

6.09" in 2007

6.13" in 1988

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2012 far and away the driest June-July for Indianapolis in their recorded history (since 1871).

0.92" in 2012

2.45" in 1930

2.78" in 1940

3.08" in 1991

3.41" in 1967

3.55" in 1954

3.58" in 1936

3.66" in 1922

3.67" in 1908

3.85" in 1893

3.86" in 1887

Only one location but talk about demolished.

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Driest years on record for Indianapolis.

24.97" in 1934

27.93" in 1954

28.82" in 1940

29.06" in 1941

29.66" in 1930

30.33" in 1901

30.97" in 1914 and 1944

31.08" in 1946

31.13" in 1894

31.25" in 1908

January -July precipitation totals for each year.

1934: 13.74"

1954: 16.90"

1940: 17.79"

1941: 14.73"

1930: 19.59"

1901: 17.32"

1914: 22.77"

1944: 16.75"

1946: 19.70"

1894: 21.50"

1908: 24.77"

2012: 15.98"

So only two years on the above list had lesser totals than 2012 through the end of July. The future is never certain with weather, but this may be another record to watch for Indianapolis.

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Furthermore, averages by decade for Indianapolis.

1870's: 44.01"

1880's: 43.97"

1890's: 39.99"

1900's: 37.00"

1910's: 37.77"

1920's: 41.28"

1930's: 37.31"

1940's: 36.43" (least)

1950's: 41.38"

1960's: 37.97"

1970's: 40.06"

1980's: 40.12"

1990's: 41.90"

2000's: 45.29" (most)

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Interesting that none of the driest years on the list is later than 1954. I wonder if the last half of the 20th century was was wetter overall than the first half.

It may also be partially due to the location of the weather station. Indianapolis, like many other cities, had a rooftop instrument exposure at the old downtown weather bureau office. Studies have shown rooftop gauges can underreport precipitation by up to 10% or more.

Let's look at another example of the importance of instrument exposure on data representativeness and accuracy. It has long been understood that the height of a rain gauge above the ground affects the measured rainfall totals. Basically, studies show that the higher the gauge orifice, the lower the reported amount (Figure 13).

Fig13.png

Source: http://www.nws.noaa....rs_exposure.htm

Also other climate elements suffer from inhomogeneities. The precipitation amounts observed in the early instrumental period, roughly before 1900, are biased and are 10% lower than nowadays because the precipitation measurements were often made on a roof. At the time, instruments were installed on rooftops to ensure that the instrument is never shielded from the rain, but it was found later that due to the turbulent flow of the wind on roofs, some rain droplets and especially snow flakes did not fall into the opening. Consequently measurements are nowadays performed closer to the ground.

Source: http://en.wikipedia....ation_(climate)

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there were storms nearby today so I thought on the last day of the month it would mess it up but they missed the reporting station.....no measurable rainfall at CMI the whole month of July!

CLIMATE REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL

435 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...............................

..THE CHAMPAIGN IL AIRPORT CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JULY 31 2012

VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010

CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 9999 TO 9999

WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST

VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR

NORMAL

..............................................................

TEMPERATURE (F)

TODAY

MAXIMUM 97 247 PM MM MM 83 14 93

MINIMUM 66 429 AM MM MM 63 3 70

AVERAGE 82 73 9 82

PRECIPITATION (IN)

TODAY 0.00 MM MM 0.12 -0.12 0.00

MONTH TO DATE T 4.34 -4.34 0.87

SINCE JUN 1 2.12 8.51 -6.39 4.36

SINCE JAN 1 12.26 23.67 -11.41 19.87

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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

1159 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...

SYNOPSIS

SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXISTED IN MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA FOR THE WEEK ENDING JULY 24 ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR. THIS IS A RESULT OF WARM WEATHER SINCE THE MIDDLE OF MARCH AND PROLONGED DRYNESS SINCE APRIL 1.

EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS 20 PERCENT OF INDIANA. THIS INCLUDED MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA BOUNDED BY THE WABASH RIVER TO THE WEST...INTERSTATE 70 TO THE NORTH AND INTERSTATE 65 TO THE EAST. DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THIS AREA WERE THE WORST IN RECORDED HISTORY.

TOTAL RAINFALL IN MUCH OF THIS AREA FOR THE MONTHS OF JUNE AND JULY COMBINED WAS LESS THAN ONE INCH DURING AN HISTORIC HEAT WAVE THAT BEGAN ON JUNE 28 AND CONTINUED INTO EARLY AUGUST. JULY 2012 WAS THE WARMEST MONTH OF RECORD...WITH NEARLY EVERY DAY REACHING 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER. THIS AREA HAS EXPERIENCED 9 TO 15 DAYS OF 100 DEGREE WEATHER SINCE JUNE 28.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

THE IMPACTS OF THIS DROUGHT HAD A LARGE EFFECT ON INDIANA AGRICULTURE. NEARLY ALL PASTURE LAND WAS BARREN. LATE SEASON CROPS LIKE CORN AND SOYBEANS MAY SEE THEIR WORST YIELDS SINCE THE GREAT DROUGHT OF 1988...POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER.

HUNDREDS OF WILD FIRES BROKE OUT DURING JULY. AT LEAST 50 OF THESE FIRES WERE STARTED BY LIGHTNING ... UNHEARD OF IN INDIANA DURING JULY.

MANDATORY OUTDOOR WATER RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA. THE STATE OF INDIANA ISSUED A STATE WIDE WATER SHORTAGE WARNING...A FIRST. RECORD LOW WATER LEVELS FOR JULY WERE IMPACTING POWER COMPANIES.

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January 1 - August 1, 2012 precipitation totals and departures in Indiana

Bloomington*: 13.41" -16.38"

Evansville: 13.87" -14.17"

Fort Wayne: 15.35" -7.98"

Indianapolis: 15.98" -10.33"

Indianapolis Eagle Creek: 13.77" -11.77"

Lafayette*: 12.47" -9.74"

Muncie: 15.82" -8.91"

Shelbyville: 13.76" -13.24"

South Bend: 19.32" -2.32"

Terre Haute*: 13.12" -14.68"

Valparaiso: 15.67" -5.70"

June 1 - August 1, 2012 precipitation totals and departures in Indiana

Bloomington*: 1.66" -8.24"

Evansville: 2.49" -5.31"

Fort Wayne: 5.00" -3.53"

Indianapolis: 0.92" -7.99"

Indianapolis Eagle Creek: 0.63" -8.10"

Lafayette*: 1.72" -6.47"

Muncie: 3.58" -5.58"

Shelbyville: 0.71" -8.51"

South Bend: 8.02" +0.10"

Terre Haute*: 0.82" -8.54"

Valparaiso: 5.90" -2.49"

*indicates some days missing.

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January 1 - August 1, 2012 precipitation totals and departures in Indiana

Bloomington*: 13.41" -16.38"

Evansville: 13.87" -14.17"

Fort Wayne: 15.35" -7.98"

Indianapolis: 15.98" -10.33"

Indianapolis Eagle Creek: 13.77" -11.77"

Lafayette*: 12.47" -9.74"

Muncie: 15.82" -8.91"

Shelbyville: 13.76" -13.24"

South Bend: 19.32" -2.32"

Terre Haute*: 13.12" -14.68"

Valparaiso: 15.67" -5.70"

June 1 - August 1, 2012 precipitation totals and departures in Indiana

Bloomington*: 1.66" -8.24"

Evansville: 2.49" -5.31"

Fort Wayne: 5.00" -3.53"

Indianapolis: 0.92" -7.99"

Indianapolis Eagle Creek: 0.63" -8.10"

Lafayette*: 1.72" -6.47"

Muncie: 3.58" -5.58"

Shelbyville: 0.71" -8.51"

South Bend: 8.02" +0.10"

Terre Haute*: 0.82" -8.54"

Valparaiso: 5.90" -2.49"

*indicates some days missing.

Good work on assembling all these data. South Bend is probably 5.02", right? (since the anomaly is +0.10")

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