HurricaneJosh Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Page 4, 1/3 of the way down. It was a discussion reposting. Sorry, I don't always read every post. Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Per ATCF, we have TS Debby (see above) AL, 04, 2012062318, , BEST, 0, 260N, 876W, 40, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 0, 0, 1008, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DEBBY, M, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 My latest thoughts on Debby. http://www.examiner.com/article/debby-likely-soon-the-gulf-entire-gulf-coast-at-risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 There is officially no more reason to bring up anything Bastardi thinks about tropical cyclones. We might as well bring back rainstorm. Anywho, it's crazy that we have set a record for fastest to four named storms ever. I do wish the models were a bit clearer... sigh. I'm liking the Lee comparisons so far, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 There is officially no more reason to bring up anything Bastardi thinks about tropical cyclones. We might as well bring back rainstorm. Agreed. He just never has anything useful to contribute. It's always ratings-driven hot air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Ugh, typical mindless yapping from him. Also, if he was up on current tropical-cyclone research, he would know that no one with any credibility thinks Audrey was a Cat 4. It's like he gets his information from 30-year-old textbooks. Not to mention a prediction very anomolous. When was the last time a strong hurricane made landfall in June, 1985 or something? I still think this unorganized mess mainly affects the eastern portion of the GOM. I think the disturbance will feel out the trough instead of backing towards the west underneath the ridge, but I've been wrong before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 lol if Debby gets to cat 2, I will eat a bag of nails. I would be surprised if this mess gets to hurricane status let alone anything else. I still think the Euro is off its rocker. If it stays away from land until Wednesday night that's possible. All I know is it won't deepen much until 12z Monday and even the Euro only takes 988mb and 50kts, so I'd give the CAT 3 scenario about a 1/50 chance. I might go 1/20 if this were September and 1/2 if this were September 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 If it stays away from land until Wednesday night that's possible. All I know is it won't deepen much until 12z Monday and even the Euro only takes 988mb and 50kts, so I'd give the CAT 3 scenario about a 1/50 chance. I might go 1/20 if this were September and 1/2 if this were September 2005. I'd basically go 100% if it was this case... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 5pm advisory should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 My latest thoughts on Debby. http://www.examiner....f-coast-at-risk Wow, Allan-- pretty bullish Re: the TX scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 For those of you who are just checking in, TS Debby has formed: AL, 04, 2012062318, , BEST, 0, 260N, 876W, 40, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 0, 0, 1008, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DEBBY, M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Not to mention a prediction very anomolous. When was the last time a strong hurricane made landfall in June, 1985 or something? I still think this unorganized mess mainly affects the eastern portion of the GOM. I think the disturbance will feel out the trough instead of backing towards the west underneath the ridge, but I've been wrong before A few pages back, I listed the June landfalls since 1950-- and assuming that Audrey has been historically overestimated, none of them were what we'd call "intense" 'canes. According to a paper by Brian Jarvinen, Audrey was a Cat 1, and it generated a decent surge in a vulnerable area largely because it was a large circulation with a large RMW-- not because it was that strong. I'm not sure I agree it was a Cat 1, but I agree with him that it probably wasn't a major. The USA hasn't had a June hurricane landfall since 1986-- so it's climatologically very unusual. June landfalls in the USA since 1950: 1986 - Bonnie - TX 1972 - Agnes - FL (NW) 1966 - Alma - FL (NW) 1957 - Audrey - LA/TX As you can see, all of them were on the Gulf Coast, and none of them were majors. Re: Audrey... Yes, it's officially a Cat 4, but it hasn't been reanalyzed yet. Contemporary analysis done by reputable researchers (like Brian Jarvinen) suggests it was much, much weaker-- maybe even a strong Cat 1. Let's see what the Best Track Committee says. My guess is they compromise and settle on Cat 2 (like 85 or 90 kt). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 I'd say Alex (2010) was close enough, central pressure and landfall-wise. So it hasn't been too long. A few pages back, I listed the June landfalls since 1950-- and assuming that Audrey has been historically overestimated, none of them were what we'd call "intense" 'canes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 5pm advisory should be interesting. Yeah, the model suite is a disaster, with the ECMWF and NAM favoring western solutions in Texas, and the GFS and GFDL favoring eastern solutions into Florida. The entire model suite looks like a half-circle to the north of Debby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 I'd say Alex (2010) was close enough, central pressure and landfall-wise. So it hasn't been too long. Ah, I thought we were talking about USA landfalls. Alex was impressive pressure-wise (in the 940s), although the winds were Cat 2. wxmx and I chased Alex and perfectly hit the center about 20 n mi inland. It was not terribly impressive where we were. The backside, after the short lull, was much stronger than the front: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 This is the first interesting system in quite a while. We're seeing impressive troughing this week & Debbie could be a legitimate threat to the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 If Debby does back under the ridge towards TX I think Hurricane Bonnie would be an excellent analog. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bonnie_1986_track.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Bonnie and Claudette might be too small to be great analogs. Chances are, though, Debby's circulation envelope will shrink somewhat as it intensifies and comes under the base of the warm core ridge. There is some predictability to TC size, if you consider the environment it is expected to be moving through. If Debby does back under the ridge towards TX I think Hurricane Bonnie would be an excellent analog. http://en.wikipedia...._1986_track.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 19:27Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302) Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 1 Observation Number: 07 A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 18:37:40Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°54'N 87°50'W (25.9N 87.8333W) B. Center Fix Location: 313 miles (503 km) to the SSE (154°) from New Orleans, LA, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 15kts (~ 17.3mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the ENE (63°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 165° at 17kts (From the SSE at ~ 19.6mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 73 nautical miles (84 statute miles) to the ENE (65°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg) - Extrapolated I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 340m (1,115ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 338m (1,109ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 17kts (~ 19.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:11:00Z Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 26kts (~ 29.9mph) in the southwest quadrant at 18:52:00Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... PEAK SFC WND 32KTS NW QUAD AT 17:08:20Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Burning with curiosity Re: the first official forecast-- which way they take it and how strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 HPC: FINAL... THE AVAILABLE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERED NO COMPELLING REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES FOR THE FINAL DAY 3-7 FORECAST. IN FACT...OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN EVEN LESS AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE FOR THE 00Z RUNS. THE 12Z GFS STILL TRACKS A SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THEN DEVELOPS A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY DAY 4. THE 12Z UKMET ADJUSTED FASTER WITH ITS WESTWARD TRACK INTO SOUTH TEXAS...THE 12Z CMC NOW BRINGS THE SYSTEM STRAIGHT INTO THE LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI COAST...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF LOOKED SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z WITH A STEADY WESTWARD TRACK WESTWARD. GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM...THE NHC/HPC COORDINATED TRACK FOR DAYS 3-7 STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO CONTINUITY...WITH A SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT MADE CONSIDERING THE BEST ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Since that ftp site "leak" still seems to exist, we should know in 15 minutes. Not too long to wait. Burning with curiosity Re: the first official forecast-- which way they take it and how strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Burning with curiosity Re: the first official forecast-- which way they take it and how strong. Yeah, the track forecast is going to be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Yeah, the track forecast is going to be very interesting. They can take the GFS route or the Euro route. The problem with this one is that playing it safe and splitting the difference down the middle takes a cyclone into New Orleans, which would be a rather provocative forecast to make. Complicated to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Wow, Allan-- pretty bullish Re: the TX scenario. Hi Josh, hope you are well. Yeah tough to argue against Euro's track record and if it takes that track, it certainly has some potential to strengthen for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunnyFL Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Great radar view from Pinellas Park FL http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/weather/klystron-9-radar.html.html.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Recon is now sampling the winds in the convection East of the center. Thus far a peak of 53kt at flight level. SFMR peaked at 46kt, but that was with 23mm/hr convection, the highest outside of significant convection has been 39kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Debby might be a 50mph storm by 5pm if recon can get north some more. Dropsonde hit 53 mph earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 This forecast looks to be intractable for the next several days, not surprising given the multiple vortex nature of the circulation and the weak steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico. I think it's going to be moving erratically for the next few days at least and mostly drifting, which may give it time to develop. I made a full analysis on my blog http://weather.schematical.com/ The NHC forecasters call this a squished spider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 50 knot FL winds heading north into the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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