Roger Smith Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Buoy winds just increased to 140 deg 33 g 45 kts ... time to drop a name on this. My guess is track NW then W, over 3-4 days heading towards central TX coast, possibly reaching cat-2 intensity by 72h south of Galveston, landfall north of CRP. Obviously large range of possible tracks but the northeast option looks very weak on current upper air guidance. Don't feel it would just chug NNW into LA-MS from swelling upper high, cloud presentation hints at westward track already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Stop being such Debbie downers. Who's being a downer? To the contrary, I was celebrating its attractive frontal characteristics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUN 2012 TCPOD NUMBER.....12-036 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 -- A. 25/0000Z, 0600Z B. AFXXX 0304A CYCLONE C. 23/2245Z D. 27.5N 88.2W E. 24/2300Z TO 25/0600Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 -- A. 25/1200,1800Z B. AFXXX 0404A CYCLONE C. 25/1045Z D. 27.5N 88.2W E. 25/1100Z TO 25/1800Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. 3. REMARK: MISSION FOR 24/1200-1800Z FORM POD 12-035 WILL FLY AS ALREADY TASKED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 For having an exposed LLC, it actually looks pretty good. LOL I didn't even catch that. Fixed for future hilarity. Who's being a downer? To the contrary, I was celebrating its attractive frontal characteristics. Mmhmm. I know you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 3. REMARK: MISSION FOR 24/1200-1800Z FORM POD 12-035WILL FLY AS ALREADY TASKED. Does that mean they canx the early afternoon invest? To Josh- I don't see any fronts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 To Josh- I don't see any fronts... I was just trolling, not making a structural analysis. Look at the IR image I posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 I'm sure it was just a comment on its linear inflow band in the northwest Caribbean, which has been helped along by the vertical wind shear. The Dvorak technique welcomes curved bands, since liner bands appear frontal on satellite imagery. Does that mean they canx the early afternoon invest? To Josh- I don't see any fronts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 As per latest GFS, it looks like this storm spilits into two systems. The first piece stays back in the GOMEX and the second spins east over northern Florida and then reforms off GA/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 I'm sure it was just a comment on its linear inflow band in the northwest Caribbean, which has been helped along by the vertical wind shear. The Dvorak technique welcomes curved bands, since liner bands appear frontal on satellite imagery. Bingo-- thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Bingo-- thanks . Mea culpa for being an uptight Debby Downer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Kinda looks like a sub-tropical cyclone with a decent circulation but all the convection and strongest winds displaced 100+ miles away from the center. Better than yesterday though, and might be enough to declare some sort of depression this afternoon. TDs spawned by monsoon gyres can often be a mess like this. The upper-low near Texas is key in shearing this thing. It's retrograding westwards though (albeit slowly), and the further away it gets the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 The recon is off! You can check out live reports on this website http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ and i will post anything seals the deal for the nhc to update this invest to debby at the 2 pm update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 The recon is off! You can check out live reports on this website http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ and i will post anything seals the deal for the nhc to update this invest to debby at the 2 pm update http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml HDOB 3 at 1606Z already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Very clear/defined, though naked, LLC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Buoy winds just increased to 140 deg 33 g 45 kts ... time to drop a name on this. My guess is track NW then W, over 3-4 days heading towards central TX coast, possibly reaching cat-2 intensity by 72h south of Galveston, landfall north of CRP. Obviously large range of possible tracks but the northeast option looks very weak on current upper air guidance. Don't feel it would just chug NNW into LA-MS from swelling upper high, cloud presentation hints at westward track already. sounds like a good forecast. are you still thinking your seasonal numbers will verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 The ARW members seem to like this storm, most other SREF members, Globals and me aren't very enthusiastic. It's a TCHP waster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 12z solutions of the CMC and Ukmet are similar to their 0z counterparts...Canadian stalls just south of LA and then it drifts north, making landfall there. Ukmet is a landfall a bit south of the 0z model, near Corpus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 From recon, 980mb Center located at roughly 25.9N, 87.85W extrap 1001.8mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 25.9N 87.9W ... 32kts SFMR , 34 kts FL, 1002mb .. West winds are present ... not sure if wind obs near the center are rain contaminated.... ... sorry for that last bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 23, 2012 Author Share Posted June 23, 2012 12z HWRF takes it a bit N then WSW before leveling off towards the Tx/Mx border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Wow, recon fell to about 610 feet in the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 The GGEM has shifted east, hangs it back just offshore LA then eventually inland in the MS area. I will be really interested to see what the Euro and UKIE do now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 The GGEM has shifted east, hangs it back just offshore LA then eventually inland in the MS area. I will be really interested to see what the Euro and UKIE do now..... 0z had that same solution...Ukie is a landfall near Corpus (0z was a hit to Galveston) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 The GGEM has shifted east, hangs it back just offshore LA then eventually inland in the MS area. I will be really interested to see what the Euro and UKIE do now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Wow, recon fell to about 610 feet in the center. I don't think it is uncommon for them to fly right off the deck when they're trying to fix a surface center in a mess like this when the area is devoid of convection and turbulence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 I will be really interested to see what the Euro and UKIE do now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 I don't think it is uncommon for them to fly right off the deck when they're trying to fix a surface center in a mess like this when the area is devoid of convection and turbulence. You're correct, when recon is investigating systems that are quite weak (I'm not talking TD/weak TS, but just a relatively organized area of convection) they will often fly just above the deck. Obviously when there are indications the system is more organized, they bump it up to 850 millibars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 000 ABNT20 KNHC 231755 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE DATA...AND PRELIMINARY RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IF THE PLANE IS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 I get indigestion looking at exposed swirls with convection hundreds of miles to the E. It's just never attractive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 This is a graphic I just posted on my public outlets, so just ignore the narration. Based on recon data, it looks like we might have a secondary circulation trying to emerge out from the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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