turtlehurricane Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Any circulation y'all are seeing is just a weaker sub-low in the broad monsoon gyre and not important. This thing is still a mess. I have no idea why the NHC has an 80% chance of formation on this. Anyways, convection seems to be refiring, except this time it's in the Gulf of Mexico. Probably got a couple days of brewing to go over the GOMEX, the lack of land (Yucatan and western Cuba) will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Another small LOLvort clearly evident on 3.9UM IR near 24N 88W drifting WNW. While exposed, it appears to be *slightly* more coincident with the MLC to its SE near 23N and 86.5W or so. Still, whattafreakingmess. http://www.ssd.noaa....x/loop-ir2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Another small LOLvort clearly evident on 3.9UM IR near 24N 88W drifting WNW. While exposed, it appears to be *slightly* more coincident with the MLC to its SE near 23N and 86.5W or so. Still, whattafreakingmess. http://www.ssd.noaa....x/loop-ir2.html It's (Old School 1998) Earl-Tastic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 It's (Old School 1998) Earl-Tastic! Worst 100mph hurricane ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 It's (Old School 1998) Earl-Tastic! ...... ...... ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Worst 100mph hurricane ever? To use technical meteorological terminology, I'd say Fugliest Cat 2 ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Turn to the right by the CMC and Ukie...Canadian is a landfall in LA, and Ukie is a landfall near Galveston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Any circulation y'all are seeing is just a weaker sub-low in the broad monsoon gyre and not important. This thing is still a mess. I have no idea why the NHC has an 80% chance of formation on this. Anyways, convection seems to be refiring, except this time it's in the Gulf of Mexico. Probably got a couple days of brewing to go over the GOMEX, the lack of land (Yucatan and western Cuba) will help. It is sort of cool picking out individual swirls on NOAA IR2 "night visible" loops. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Turn to the right by the CMC and Ukie...Canadian is a landfall in LA, and Ukie is a landfall near Galveston. I hate to be beating a dead horse, but the sheer size of this system leads it easy to be picked up by the slightest weakness. Just like Lee last year, once this system reaches a certain latitude it will be hard for the upper level ridge to build completely over the system, especially if it doesn't move very far westward in the short term. I'll go on the record as saying that the 00z GFS solution is not so farfetched. Sure its been suffering from spurious vorticity elements generated through convective feedback issues, but that tiny vortex many have been witnessing on the shortwave IR might just be that spurious vorticity element that will push the mean low center further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Turn to the right by the CMC and Ukie...Canadian is a landfall in LA, and Ukie is a landfall near Galveston. Until the right turn, Canadian and GFS look a fair amount alike. I'd have to guess where the final main center forms will have a lot to do with whether this is the Florida threat the GFS has been semi-consistent on suggesting, especially with a hint of an Eastern shift in some of the other global guidance. Oh, Small differences in initial conditions, huge swing in potential cyclone position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 I see the Euro near CRP in 4 days, I will say, the jump from slopgyre to a decently organized tropical storm in 24 hours (well, now about 18 hours) may not be completely realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Wow, I forgot about those images of Earl 1998. Definitely a craptastic presentation for an 85-kt system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 It seems to me that the LLC would be centered at 24.2oN, 88oW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Here is a Early morning update on 96L. At this point I think the track is still largely up in the air, with a split decision for most of the guidence with some models taking it west (the ECMWF camp) whole others take it east (the GFS camp). As always the ultimate track should become much clearer when/if a well defined llc can become established. http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2012/06/23/invest-96l-getting-better-organized-track-remains-uncertain/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Here is a Early morning update on 96L. At this point I think the track is still largely up in the air, with a split decision for most of the guidence with some models taking it west (the ECMWF camp) whole others take it east (the GFS camp). As always the ultimate track should become much clearer when/if a well defined llc can become established. http://philstropical...ains-uncertain/ I usually spit up a little when I see an ULL like that NW of the disturbance. However, I like that SW movement of it as some have noted earlier. They usually are more of a pain since models can be too fast to move them as you said, but that could broaden that outflow channel in a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Interesting looking at the meso-analysis map at the 300 mb split in flow over the SE. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_meso_analysis.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS PRODUCED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR MORE LIKELY A TROPICAL STORM...COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT IF THE DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE... 90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BERG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Buoy closest to center: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Down to 1002mbs AL, 96, 2012062312, , BEST, 0, 254N, 876W, 30, 1002, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Looking like Debby is on the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Nothing but a big ole sheared early season Gulf storm with an elongated broad low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Nothing but a big ole sheared early season Gulf storm with an elongated broad low... Indeed, but are you intrigued with what is now multiple home grown activity so early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Nothing but a big ole sheared early season Gulf storm with an elongated broad low... 1998 Earl at peak (Category 2) Intensity (earlier pics are from when it was classified as a hurricane, IIRC). I remember wondering whether LSD had made it into the WC-130 cabin air systems at the time. The strongest wind speeds I've ever seen with actual center relocations (or no center at all). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 I have to say, it's not the most beautiful disturbance. Remember the one that spawned Tomas 2010? You knew that one was going to become something-- even as a disturbance, it was hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Indeed, but are you intrigued with what is now multiple home grown activity so early? We are in indeed ahead of 1997, 4 named storms before mid July and the El Nino season cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 HPC: UPDATED PRELIM... THE 06Z GFS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ITS 00Z RUN WITH EJECTING AN INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DAYS 3-4...BUT IT REMAINS A FAST OUTLIER WITH CARRYING THE CLOSED ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DAYS 4-6 WHEN COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC/UKMET/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. CONCERNING THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...AND ITS 06Z RUN WAS EVEN QUICKER TO BRING THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...MODEL CONSENSUS...INCLUDING THE 00Z GEFS MEAN...CONTINUES TO FAVOR IDEA OF THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND THEN MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH TEXAS. DESPITE THE AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GEFS/ECMWF/CMC STILL INDICATE A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE FLATTENING OF FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WITH THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST RELIES ON THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTS MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD AFTER DAY 4...MORE WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TOWARDS THE ECMWF MEAN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCES FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER DAY 4. MAJOR CHANGES IN THE GULF WILL NOT BE MADE UNTIL AFTER THE 17Z NHC/HPC COORDINATION CALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 hmmm...very sheared still, but I'm suprised how much organization there has been with it. Looks like there's a chance she will be named today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 What an attractive frontal system! Can't believe it got all the way down there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 You guys are forgetting that once shear lets up a bit, all it takes is one burst of convection on the central west side of the circulation for this to start having a better presentation on satellite. Stop being such Debby downers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 You guys are forgetting that once shear lets up a bit, all it takes is one burst of convection on the central west side of the circulation for this to start having a better presentation on satellite. Stop being such Debbie downers. For having an exposed LLC, it actually looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.