Superstorm93 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 We're dealing with a much larger system than we were before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 Grr. That has been a main point that others have tried to impress upon even before it was declared an invest. It's a large monsoonal system that's going to take some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 From Melbourne, FL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE 12Z SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MOST OF WHICH SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT THIS WEEKEND THEN TURNING WEST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IS THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO ACCORDING TO THE HURRICANE CENTER. THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER BRINGING THE SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ON TUE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Comma shaped....noice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 18z HWRF doesn't do much - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 18z HWRF doesn't do much - OK, that's kinda lame if the usually acid-trippy HWRF can't produce a good acid trip with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 OK, that's kinda lame if the usually acid-trippy HWRF can't produce a good acid trip with this one. The upgrade with the HWRF may have made a difference. Baby steps.... Test results from the combination of these upgrades showed significantly improved track, intensity and structure forecast skills and improved track, intensity and storm radius forecast biases in both Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 The upgrade with the HWRF may have made a difference. Baby steps.... Test results from the combination of these upgrades showed significantly improved track, intensity and structure forecast skills and improved track, intensity and storm radius forecast biases in both Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. Ah, OK. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 TCFA for 96L SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// WTNT21 KNGU 221600 RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.6N 88.3W TO 26.0N 88.3W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 221545Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 88.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS:CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING INTENSIFICATION OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT 221544Z, INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR OVER 12 HOURS. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 83 TO 85 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 231600Z.// NHC has it up to 80% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWarning Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 To my eyes, it looks like there is a defined CoC 40 MIles North Northeast of Cancun. Its still broad and elongated towards the coast of the Yucatan. Would not be surprised to see a blow up of convection later tonight in this area as the system looks much better than 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 question for the pro mets looking at this thread..at what level should we be looking for increasing/decreasing shear to give us a signal of possible strengthening? especially north of the system, if shear quiet's down out of the west, I would expect some kind of intensification, but what is the critical level??...Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Question -- The recon on Saturday is a tentative thing? They will cancel it like they did today if there is not enough going on, right? Or will they be going no matter what... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 question for the pro mets looking at this thread..at what level should we be looking for increasing/decreasing shear to give us a signal of possible strengthening? especially north of the system, if shear quiet's down out of the west, I would expect some kind of intensification, but what is the critical level??...Thanks in advance There are no hard rules, but a good rule of thumb is <20kts of shear, obviously the lower, the higher the chance...the area that it must cover should be rather large around the LLC. Question -- The recon on Saturday is a tentative thing? They will cancel it like they did today if there is not enough going on, right? Or will they be going no matter what... Yes, Yes, No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 00Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 There are no hard rules, but a good rule of thumb is <20kts of shear, obviously the lower, the higher the chance...the area that it must cover should be rather large around the LLC. Yes, Yes, No Haha, thanks. Guess I asked the same thing 3 times... sorry about that. Thanks for the quick response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 tendency for mid level shear is going down over the last 24 hrs at mid levels. even on the eastern edge of the strongest shear over the western gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 23/0z 850mb vorticity...is this thing getting it's act together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 If the global models are right... the shear over the system the next 24-48 hours is actually probably going to increase as an upper level low dips southward into the Western Gulf of Mexico. You can see the upper level trough already starting to get better organized over Texas coastline as it moves southward. While I think the llc is getting better defined, it was still far too broad to take advantage of the transient anticyclone that developed over the system yesterday. I think the storm can get to TD or even minimal TS strength even with this current disheveled upper level pattern, but forget about any sort of robust intensification until that upper level impulse gets out of the way. That could be 2-3 more days away. I'll have a full outlook later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 23/0z 850mb vorticity...is this thing getting it's act together? Slowly so. Upper level conditions are better, but still not very conducive, especially considering it's a huge low. Low level structure has gotten better, also. Like others have said it, this thing needs over 24 hours (48?) to consolidate into a more compact one, with persistent convection over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 If the global models are right... the shear over the system the next 24-48 hours is actually probably going to increase as an upper level low dips southward into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. You can see the upper level trough already starting to get better organized over Texas coastline as it moves southward. While I think the llc is getting better defined, it was still far too broad to take advantage of the transient anticyclone that developed over the system yesterday. I think the storm can get to TD or even minimal TS strength even with this current disheveled upper level pattern, but forget about any sort of robust intensification until that upper level impulse gets out of the way. That could be 2-3 more days away. I'll have a full outlook later tonight. Yep, I agree...but models split a piece of that TUTT and dive it southwestward (as a ULL)...if it can keep a distance from our low, it could be beneficial as an excellent venting source, which some models are hinting at just prior to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Did you mean southward into the western Gulf or eastward across the northern Gulf? Either way, it sounds like you're implying a Lee-like development in the Gulf. If the global models are right... the shear over the system the next 24-48 hours is actually probably going to increase as an upper level low dips southward into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. You can see the upper level trough already starting to get better organized over Texas coastline as it moves southward. While I think the llc is getting better defined, it was still far too broad to take advantage of the transient anticyclone that developed over the system yesterday. I think the storm can get to TD or even minimal TS strength even with this current disheveled upper level pattern, but forget about any sort of robust intensification until that upper level impulse gets out of the way. That could be 2-3 more days away. I'll have a full outlook later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Winds up 5 and pressure is down AL, 96, 2012062300, , BEST, 0, 233N, 879W, 30, 1004, DB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Thanks everyone for the answers, I wonder if the ULL is why the rap is showing this @ 17z 06/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Thanks to the relative sparseness of deep convection near the center, I can see what is probably the actual at least mid level center about 22ºN & 86.5ºW Little SE of best track AL, 96, 2012062300, , BEST, 0, 233N, 879W, 30, 1004, DB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Did you mean southward into the western Gulf or eastward across the northern Gulf? Either way, it sounds like you're implying a Lee-like development in the Gulf. Yes I meant Western GOM. I think Lee is actually a relatively good analog aside from the time of the year. IIRC Lee was also forecast to make landfall in TX but ended up moving further north. The upper level pattern is slightly different this go around but I still remain skeptical 96L makes it as far west as the ECMWF is indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Yep, I agree...but models split a piece of that TUTT and dive it southwestward (as a ULL)...if it can keep a distance from our low, it could be beneficial as an excellent venting source, which some models are hinting at just prior to landfall. Yea I see that too, but that's quite a few days down the road, and models are notorious for moving ULL out of the way too fast. A good analog to ponder at this point might be some sort of Lee(2011)/Claudette(2003) hybrid given the synoptic pattern indicated in the global modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 UKMO ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 is it just me or is the low redeveloping just off the Yuc. peninsula. The picture below is of 96L. You can see the thunderstorms around the new center and the areas marked by black strips are where convection has blown up. You can see the spin on the loop below... LOOP:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/96L/flash-rb-short.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 is it just me or is the low redeveloping just off the Yuc. peninsula. The picture below is of 96L. You can see the thunderstorms around the new center and the areas marked by black strips are where convection has blown up. You can see the spin on the loop below... LOOP:http://www.ssd.noaa....h-rb-short.html Not just you. I posted an hour or so ago that the satellite rotation was SE of best track. I assume I am seeing the MLC, but perhaps the system will develop a new center inder that. ETA- new GFS still Florida, and I don't think it can be dismissed just because it is an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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