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Post Tropical Cyclone Debby


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A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY CONTINUES FOR DUVAL AND NORTHEAST CLAY COUNTIES...

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT FOR DUVAL

AND NORTHERN CLAY COUNTIES...

AT 724 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A BROAD

AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE AND NORTHEAST

CLAY COUNTY PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. WATER RESCUES WERE OCCURRING

ACROSS PORTIONS OF DUVAL AND NORTHEAST CLAY COUNTY.

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debby's center seems to be pushing unexpectedly SE of where the models and the NHC take it on their forecast tracks.

from the nhc: "...CENTER OF DEBBY TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD...EXPECTED TO RESUME AN EASTWARD MOTION LATER TONIGHT..."

maybe she has one last surprise for us :lmao:

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Remember when people were mocking that the GFS took Debby SE to Tampa? Doesn't look so crazy anymore huh? I honestly don't know if Debby is going to survive the current frontal interaction, it's questionable the circulation has enough distinct definition looking at radar. Another alternate possibility is that the center reforms closer to the convection in the Atlantic.

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TD Debby has finally reached the E Coast of Florida and appears to be absorbed along the frontal boundary. Debby should begin accelerating ENE into the open Atlantic the next several days. Good Riddance!

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Debby has been declared post-tropical.

I saved a nice track map from 18z on the 23rd. The 12z June 23rd, run of the GFS preformed admirably considering the discrepancy of the rest of the models. Not only was it not far off the track, but the timing was remarkably close as well.

Yup, I admit I was skeptical, but the GFS was definitely the (major) model of choice for Debby. The Euro was playing catch-up the entire time.

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ex-Debby's not looking bad this morning for being very sheared off

The circulation is now embedded in the convection. We should probably see the probabilities go up in the next 6-12 hours if its able to hang on to the convection, its moving into the lower SSTs to the south of the Gulf-stream so there are no guarantees.

afackp.jpg

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The circulation is now embedded in the convection. We should probably see the probabilities go up in the next 6-12 hours if its able to hang on to the convection, its moving into the lower SSTs to the south of the Gulf-stream so there are no guarantees.

It looks better than tropical Debby, that's for sure.

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NHC kept the probabilities at 10% at 2pm... I guess they are content with not re-upgrading a system that currently fulfills all the requirements of a tropical cyclone.

It's possible that they expect development to stop because both the GFS and Euro dissipate Debby before she becomes extratropical.

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