bluewave Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 These early tropical developments since late May along with the deluge around Mobile and Pensacola have really slowed down or gotten stuck under this major blocking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Would love to see where that was his actual "original" forecast. He originally mentioned that climo suggested the storm should go NE, but I don't ever recall him saying that was what he was forecasting. I mean, it's not like him to ever be a revisionist - ya know, try and be right when he was wrong. I follow him on Twitter. He said a few days ago he was amazed GFS agreed with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 His Texas version was Cat 2 or Cat 3. That would have been something to see. Haven't seen a post lately, if I were into excitement, I'd use the Euro and be on a big Carolina OBX tear about now. ETA: I had to look, but here it is... https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/216254407325646848/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 I follow him on Twitter. He said a few days ago he was amazed GFS agreed with him. I do remember him saying, now, that Tampa was going to be in "deep trouble". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 I follow him on Twitter. He said a few days ago he was amazed GFS agreed with him. I see that now. Still, caving into the consensus and then trying to take credit for what he was saying before caving along is kinda lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Well, whatever the cause, Little Debbie is causing LOTS of rain, and she's filling up our rivers! Convection really fired up this afternoon with Debby. Defiantly looks like some equatorward jet strak enhancement per what Sam posted earlier. Radar continues to look very impressive along the Florida Panhandle. Major flooding is ongoing just south of Tallahassee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 The one difference is going to be that you aren't getting those exorbitant rainfall totals over the Tallahassee hills to flow down into the basin and then percolate back up to the surface through springs and seeps. Yeah... That means the water isn't going to slowly rise for days after the event. At least that's some good news... Otherwise, many of the roads in that area are lucky to be more than 5 feet above the swamp, so I expect most of them are already underwater or close to it. Debby looks like she's trying to make landfall as the circulation tries to pull up underneath the convection, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 The one difference is going to be that you aren't getting those exorbitant rainfall totals over the Tallahassee hills to flow down into the basin and then percolate back up to the surface through springs and seeps. Yeah... That means the water isn't going to slowly rise for days after the event. At least that's some good news... Otherwise, many of the roads in that area are lucky to be more than 5 feet above the swamp, so I expect most of them are already underwater or close to it. Debby looks like she's trying to make landfall as the circulation tries to pull up underneath the convection, but we'll see. Unfortunately, the springs have almost stopped flowing here; perhaps this will recharge. There have been parts of the Santa Fe River that have been walkable until a couple days ago .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Is she making landfall as we speak? http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=TLH&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&t=1340664474&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 These radar images are amazing. To have the radar display such heavy echoes during tropical warm processes rain, is something else. Those are virtual white out rains near the coast line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 It got close to Apalachicola at 20z, and has been fairly stationary since. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/sfcobs/sfcgif23Z_large.gif Is she making landfall as we speak? http://radblast-mi.w...ning=0&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Yeah... That means the water isn't going to slowly rise for days after the event. At least that's some good news... Otherwise, many of the roads in that area are lucky to be more than 5 feet above the swamp, so I expect most of them are already underwater or close to it. Debby looks like she's trying to make landfall as the circulation tries to pull up underneath the convection, but we'll see. It also means sinkholes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 I see that now. Still, caving into the consensus and then trying to take credit for what he was saying before caving along is kinda lame. Caving into the consensus? Posted at 6am this morning it's the map he apparently had on his website yesterday evening. https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/217241307146498049/photo/1 I wouldn't have known that but for the endless beating of the JB dead horse sending me to check it out. There's some serious "JB psychology" on this board... but I know better than touching that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 16.26" in the panhandle today...so far http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=FL&prodtype=public It got close to Apalachicola at 20z, and has been fairly stationary since. http://www.hpc.ncep....if23Z_large.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Just an amazing month for record rainfall in the panhandle area. Earlier June rainfall totals a bit further to the west: http://www.hpc.ncep....ns/nfdscc4.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Newest update has it stationary and down a mb. Forbes stated "This is the scariest flooding situation he has ever seen." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Where were all you complainers on this one? Biggest short range bust of the last 10 years on almost every model. Nobody said anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 :lmao: Home video on TWC of fishing swimming in the flooded streets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Apologize for laughing at HPC on the 20"+call Tallahasee lucked out at least the northern and central part. Most of the http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=tlh&product=NTP&overlay=11101111&loop=no Most of the rain is over Appalchacola State forest which is pretty unpopulated. Crawfordville looks to have been hit fairly hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 There is a live storm chaser in the panhandle of Florida. He's already seen power outages and flooding, and is intercepting Debby at landfall. He's streaming at CrazyMother.tv or http://www.ustream.t...-weather-webcam. That guy is a complete moron, I'm cracking up watching his feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 If this thing does it make it into the Atlantic, it definitely could have some potential. LOL at the GFDL still doing a circle with Debby in the Gulf and bringing her back to the Panama City, Florida area on Sunday as a Cat 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Was looking a IR seemed like the high cloud tops are getting blown off to the east a bit. Maybe that will cut the rainfall rates down a bit as we go overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Caving into the consensus? Posted at 6am this morning it's the map he apparently had on his website yesterday evening. https://twitter.com/...6498049/photo/1 I wouldn't have known that but for the endless beating of the JB dead horse sending me to check it out. There's some serious "JB psychology" on this board... but I know better than touching that. JB was Florida for about a week, before Debby was even named, a Cat 2 or Cat 3 hurricane for Texas after the umpteenth run of the Euro, then back to Florida sometime Saturday night or yesterday. I can find you the Tweets, if you want... I'm not a JB auto-slammer. I like his pattern recognition useage, and he does sniff out trouble spots a week or three before they happen. I sort of lean his way in his jihad against Mann at PSU, but stopped reading his column at AccuWx PPV except when something big was happening because it was 3 parts global warming rants to 1 part weather, and the pattern recognition stuff, the "rabbit out of a hat" less than purely tropical developments he saw before the models, all the stuff I liked, took a back seat. I don't think he hypes intentionally, like some people think he does, I think he gets genuinely fired up if a model shows Houston/New Orleans/Tampa/Miami/Northeast and New England hurricane hit, the way some of us amateurs do, but have learned to surpress so as not to be labelled as weenies. Back on Debby Cantore or Forbes mentioned 16"+ rainfall totals since Midnight around St. Marks and a town with a name like Shopchoppy. Our neighborhood got 16" in about 10 hours about 11 years ago, and the flooding was extreme, and it has been raining around there for days. And the rain is still falling. Except for population density in that part of the Florida Panhandle (and if it works closer to the I-10 cities like Tallahassee or Jacksonville, that changes) this could be retired even if never upgraded to a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 00Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Is it me or does the shear appear to be relaxing a bit? The convection doesn't see to be blowing off to the east as much as before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLCRAWF3&day=25&month=06&year=2012 This PWS is now over 17" for the day and has observed >1"/hr rainfall rates continuously for the past 10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 If this thing does it make it into the Atlantic, it definitely could have some potential. LOL at the GFDL still doing a circle with Debby in the Gulf and bringing her back to the Panama City, Florida area on Sunday as a Cat 1. Euro is much worse, 943mb well east of the Carolinas @192. It has become the new CMC with tropical cyclones.I suppose anythings possible 8 days out, though I'd take dissapated over Cat3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Caving into the consensus? Posted at 6am this morning it's the map he apparently had on his website yesterday evening. https://twitter.com/...6498049/photo/1 I wouldn't have known that but for the endless beating of the JB dead horse sending me to check it out. There's some serious "JB psychology" on this board... but I know better than touching that. Talking about his original switch from favoring the GFS to his westward "potential cat 2 or 3 into Texas" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Euro is much worse, 943mb well east of the Carolinas @192. It has become the new CMC with tropical cyclones.I suppose anythings possible 8 days out, though I'd take dissapated over Cat3. Remember what the ECMWF did with Irene when it southeast of the North Carolina coastline? It lead to an NHC forecast that was much greater in intensity then it turned out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE WAKULLA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 913 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE WAKULLA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THERE IS A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR RIVERS...STREAMS...AND CREEKS IN WAKULLA COUNTY. A SHELTER HAS BEEN OPENED AT THE CRAWFORDVILLE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 379 ARRAN ROAD. PEOPLE WHO DECIDE TO EVACUATE LOW LYING AREAS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION...AND SHOULD NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS. OTHERWISE... TRAVEL ACROSS WAKULLA COUNTY IS NOT ADVISED. NUMEROUS ROADS ARE UNDER WATER...SEVERAL FEET DEEP IN SOME LOCATIONS. A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT AND IF YOU SEE RAPIDLY RISING WATER YOU SHOULD SEEK HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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