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Post Tropical Cyclone Debby


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Would love to see where that was his actual "original" forecast. He originally mentioned that climo suggested the storm should go NE, but I don't ever recall him saying that was what he was forecasting. I mean, it's not like him to ever be a revisionist - ya know, try and be right when he was wrong.

I follow him on Twitter. He said a few days ago he was amazed GFS agreed with him.

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Well, whatever the cause, Little Debbie is causing LOTS of rain, and she's filling up our rivers!

Convection really fired up this afternoon with Debby. Defiantly looks like some equatorward jet strak enhancement per what Sam posted earlier.

rvlr48.jpg

Radar continues to look very impressive along the Florida Panhandle. Major flooding is ongoing just south of Tallahassee.

2po6wzn.gif

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The one difference is going to be that you aren't getting those exorbitant rainfall totals over the Tallahassee hills to flow down into the basin and then percolate back up to the surface through springs and seeps.

Yeah... That means the water isn't going to slowly rise for days after the event. At least that's some good news... Otherwise, many of the roads in that area are lucky to be more than 5 feet above the swamp, so I expect most of them are already underwater or close to it. Debby looks like she's trying to make landfall as the circulation tries to pull up underneath the convection, but we'll see.

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The one difference is going to be that you aren't getting those exorbitant rainfall totals over the Tallahassee hills to flow down into the basin and then percolate back up to the surface through springs and seeps.

Yeah... That means the water isn't going to slowly rise for days after the event. At least that's some good news... Otherwise, many of the roads in that area are lucky to be more than 5 feet above the swamp, so I expect most of them are already underwater or close to it. Debby looks like she's trying to make landfall as the circulation tries to pull up underneath the convection, but we'll see.

Unfortunately, the springs have almost stopped flowing here; perhaps this will recharge. There have been parts of the Santa Fe River that have been walkable until a couple days ago ....

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Yeah... That means the water isn't going to slowly rise for days after the event. At least that's some good news... Otherwise, many of the roads in that area are lucky to be more than 5 feet above the swamp, so I expect most of them are already underwater or close to it. Debby looks like she's trying to make landfall as the circulation tries to pull up underneath the convection, but we'll see.

It also means sinkholes.

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I see that now. Still, caving into the consensus and then trying to take credit for what he was saying before caving along is kinda lame.

Caving into the consensus? Posted at 6am this morning it's the map he apparently had on his website yesterday evening.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/217241307146498049/photo/1

I wouldn't have known that but for the endless beating of the JB dead horse sending me to check it out. There's some serious "JB psychology" on this board... but I know better than touching that.

:snorkle:

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Caving into the consensus? Posted at 6am this morning it's the map he apparently had on his website yesterday evening.

https://twitter.com/...6498049/photo/1

I wouldn't have known that but for the endless beating of the JB dead horse sending me to check it out. There's some serious "JB psychology" on this board... but I know better than touching that.

:snorkle:

JB was Florida for about a week, before Debby was even named, a Cat 2 or Cat 3 hurricane for Texas after the umpteenth run of the Euro, then back to Florida sometime Saturday night or yesterday.

I can find you the Tweets, if you want... I'm not a JB auto-slammer. I like his pattern recognition useage, and he does sniff out trouble spots a week or three before they happen. I sort of lean his way in his jihad against Mann at PSU, but stopped reading his column at AccuWx PPV except when something big was happening because it was 3 parts global warming rants to 1 part weather, and the pattern recognition stuff, the "rabbit out of a hat" less than purely tropical developments he saw before the models, all the stuff I liked, took a back seat. I don't think he hypes intentionally, like some people think he does, I think he gets genuinely fired up if a model shows Houston/New Orleans/Tampa/Miami/Northeast and New England hurricane hit, the way some of us amateurs do, but have learned to surpress so as not to be labelled as weenies.

Back on Debby

Cantore or Forbes mentioned 16"+ rainfall totals since Midnight around St. Marks and a town with a name like Shopchoppy. Our neighborhood got 16" in about 10 hours about 11 years ago, and the flooding was extreme, and it has been raining around there for days. And the rain is still falling. Except for population density in that part of the Florida Panhandle (and if it works closer to the I-10 cities like Tallahassee or Jacksonville, that changes) this could be retired even if never upgraded to a hurricane.

post-138-0-51863200-1340671763_thumb.png

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If this thing does it make it into the Atlantic, it definitely could have some potential. LOL at the GFDL still doing a circle with Debby in the Gulf and bringing her back to the Panama City, Florida area on Sunday as a Cat 1.

Euro is much worse, 943mb well east of the Carolinas @192. It has become the new CMC with tropical cyclones.I suppose anythings possible 8 days out, though I'd take dissapated over Cat3.

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Caving into the consensus? Posted at 6am this morning it's the map he apparently had on his website yesterday evening.

https://twitter.com/...6498049/photo/1

I wouldn't have known that but for the endless beating of the JB dead horse sending me to check it out. There's some serious "JB psychology" on this board... but I know better than touching that.

:snorkle:

Talking about his original switch from favoring the GFS to his westward "potential cat 2 or 3 into Texas"

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Euro is much worse, 943mb well east of the Carolinas @192. It has become the new CMC with tropical cyclones.I suppose anythings possible 8 days out, though I'd take dissapated over Cat3.

Remember what the ECMWF did with Irene when it southeast of the North Carolina coastline? It lead to an NHC forecast that was much greater in intensity then it turned out to be.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE

WAKULLA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL

913 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE

WAKULLA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THERE IS A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND LOCATIONS

NEAR RIVERS...STREAMS...AND CREEKS IN WAKULLA COUNTY. A SHELTER

HAS BEEN OPENED AT THE CRAWFORDVILLE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 379

ARRAN ROAD.

PEOPLE WHO DECIDE TO EVACUATE LOW LYING AREAS SHOULD USE EXTREME

CAUTION...AND SHOULD NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS. OTHERWISE...

TRAVEL ACROSS WAKULLA COUNTY IS NOT ADVISED. NUMEROUS ROADS ARE

UNDER WATER...SEVERAL FEET DEEP IN SOME LOCATIONS.

A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT AND IF YOU SEE RAPIDLY

RISING WATER YOU SHOULD SEEK HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY!

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