CoastalWx Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 New euro is still a lot quicker moving the low into the area west of Gainesville, but still a move towards the GFS from a few days ago it would seem. Timing differences however still matter at this stage. I wonder of the GFS is maybe too slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Early forecast had it Texas or Mexico, even just Mexico. Cannot couch that with "yeah buts" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Winds at Apalachicola airport just shifted around to the northeast with a pressure of 995 mb there. I think we might have landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 In the end it's delivering much needed rains to an area that has had shortages for multiple years without delivering much wind damage. A nearly ideal outcome despite the model wars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Afternoon video on Debby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 SR anvil winds reveals the *relative* jet very well, and where the equatorward entrance region would be - right over that convection in the Florida panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Alot of the forecast failure can be attributed to the NHC model hugging too much. It's almost like they don't see the actual storm based on their discussions, only the simulated ones. I try to never disagree with highly trained professional degreed mets, but when every global model except the GFS (and tropical models initialized with the GFS, some with BC from the GFS,) including some GFS ensemble members, heading West, it is hard to fault them. Phil noted extreme size made GFS solution plausible, such that it couldn't be thrown out completely as a outlier, but when the usually reliable Euro (and most of its ensemble members) is joined by other models, it is hard not to pay attention to it. They started shifting course with center relocations and drift, and change in models, maybe not as fast as some would like, but they try to avoid the 'windshield wipers'. Bad forecast, as it turns out, but very few (Phil was close) got it right. In my humble opinion as an amateur hobbyist and interested observer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 18Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Apalachicola airport must have just experienced some kind of mesovortex. Wind out of the northeast gusting to 66 mph. 3:53 PM 73.9 °F 72.0 °F 93% 29.42 in 0.5 miles NE 34.5 mph 65.6 mph 0.53 in Fog , Rain Heavy Rain METAR KAAF 251953Z AUTO 04030G57KT 1/2SM +RA FG SQ FEW005 OVC012 23/22 A2942 RMK AO2 PK WND 04057/1951 PRESRR SLP963 P0053 T02330222 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 I try to never disagree with highly trained professional degreed mets, but when every global model except the GFS (and tropical models initialized with the GFS, some with BC from the GFS,) including some GFS ensemble members, heading West, it is hard to fault them. Phil noted extreme size made GFS solution plausible, such that it couldn't be thrown out completely as a outlier, but when the usually reliable Euro (and most of its ensemble members) is joined by other models, it is hard not to pay attention to it. They started shifting course with center relocations and drift, and change in models, maybe not as fast as some would like, but they try to avoid the 'windshield wipers'. Bad forecast, as it turns out, but very few (Phil was close) got it right. In my humble opinion as an amateur hobbyist and interested observer. Msr. Gadomski pegged the correct solution last Friday - said the highest probably outcome was an eastern track through the upper Fl peninsula (www.weatherworld/ today's show, extended forecast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 What are the prospects of it redeveloping when (if?) it crosses the peninsula? At least it'll bring some needed rain to the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Seems like the center of the circulation may be nudging towards the convection? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Msr. Gadomski pegged the correct solution last Friday - said the highest probably outcome was an eastern track through the upper Fl peninsula (www.weatherworld/ today's show, extended forecast) In all my time using the Penn State model e-Wall, I was never aware Dr. Gadomski actually made forecasts available to the general public. Does he post on American? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 In all my time using the Penn State model e-Wall, I was never aware Dr. Gadomski actually made forecasts available to the general public. Does he post on American? I asked him that very question on one opportunity (about 2 years ago on a call in TV show). He said that there are many persons of great meteo knowledge in what he calls "the blog-o-sphere" but he has little time to actually visit and comment. http://cms.met.psu.edu/WeatherWorld/www/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Apalachicola airport must have just experienced some kind of mesovortex. Wind out of the northeast gusting to 66 mph. 3:53 PM 73.9 °F 72.0 °F 93% 29.42 in 0.5 miles NE 34.5 mph 65.6 mph 0.53 in Fog , Rain Heavy Rain METAR KAAF 251953Z AUTO 04030G57KT 1/2SM +RA FG SQ FEW005 OVC012 23/22 A2942 RMK AO2 PK WND 04057/1951 PRESRR SLP963 P0053 T02330222 They just went over 10" for the event last hour. Something is screwy with this SPECI at TLH. That certainly got more than 0.04" last 1/2 hour. SPECI KTLH 252028Z 07014G26KT 2SM +RA BR BKN008 OVC012 24/22 A2953 RMK AO2 RAB26 P0004 Also, just looked a couple different PWS from Crawfordville, both had had ~9.5" today with current rainfall rates of 2"/hour. Another station by St. Marks is over 10" today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Yes, as Josh referenced in an earlier post this was an extremely difficult system for the NHC to forecast, especially when one considers historically that track projections have usually verified better than intensity projections. Does not diminish my respect for them one bit but reminds me that we still have a lot to learn about mother nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Three weather stations on Apalachee Bay reporting more than 7" for the day with more to come. http://wxug.us/ptgn and this one more than 9" today http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLCRAWF8&day=25&month=06&year=2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Great map of Northwest Florida Water Management District rain gages across the Tallahassee area showing the gradient today from north to south: http://www.nwfwmd.state.fl.us/isb/hydro/leonrain.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 That area of Florida is incredibly flat (shocking, I know). You drop 7-12" of rain near Sopchoppy/Crawford/St Mark and you're going to have widespread flooding. They're all located near the Wakulla Springs Basin and there is no where for the water to go. I was in Tallahassee for Faye and a few other rain events and St. Mark was virtually underwater... Some of the images we'll see out of that area are going to be incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 That area of Florida is incredibly flat (shocking, I know). You drop 7-12" of rain near Sopchoppy/Crawford/St Mark and you're going to have widespread flooding. They're all located near the Wakulla Springs Basin and there is no where for the water to go. I was in Tallahassee for Faye and a few other rain events and St. Mark was virtually underwater... Some of the images we'll see out of that area are going to be incredible. Yeah the entire coast from Apalachicola east and south to about Weeki Wachee including many inland areas is ridiculously flat, swampy and flood prone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 That area of Florida is incredibly flat (shocking, I know). You drop 7-12" of rain near Sopchoppy/Crawford/St Mark and you're going to have widespread flooding. They're all located near the Wakulla Springs Basin and there is no where for the water to go. I was in Tallahassee for Faye and a few other rain events and St. Mark was virtually underwater... Some of the images we'll see out of that area are going to be incredible. The one difference is going to be that you aren't getting those exorbitant rainfall totals over the Tallahassee hills to flow down into the basin and then percolate back up to the surface through springs and seeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Three weather stations on Apalachee Bay reporting more than 7" for the day with more to come. http://wxug.us/ptgn and this one more than 9" today http://www.wundergro...th=06&year=2012 Over 12" on this one http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLCRAWF3&day=25&month=06&year=2012 Webcam included, and I assume that lighter shade in the foreground is water where it isn't supposed to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 From radar I am seeing the heavy rain shield stretching to the East along I-10 toward Jacksonville. Is this convection supposed to persist as Debby crawls slowly ENE? That rain guage above has reports >1"/hour rainfall rates for over 6 hours. Currently at 3"/hr..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 I wouldn't say that, trackwise. We had Fay crawling up the FL peninsula 6-7 days out. I believe NHC had HPC take Debby across Florida two days last week (Wed and Thu), otherwise we stairstepped it in the direction of TX. The upper low in the western Gulf was the wildcard which allowed recurvature, which has yet to retrograde out of the way. Debby must be Fay's sister, the busted forecasts and flooding the crap out of parts of Florida feels the same, as well as the super slow movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Even the GFS was off on timing. Actually, although scorned and hated, if not for a less than day long lack of confidence in his stated ideas about pattern recognition, JB was close to correct with his original and final forecast. Just that one in the middle, the near panic about ever changing Euro runs, that did him in. Would love to see where that was his actual "original" forecast. He originally mentioned that climo suggested the storm should go NE, but I don't ever recall him saying that was what he was forecasting. I mean, it's not like him to ever be a revisionist - ya know, try and be right when he was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Would love to see where that was his actual "original" forecast. He originally mentioned that climo suggested the storm should go NE, but I don't ever recall him saying that was what he was forecasting. I mean, it's not like him to ever be a revisionist - ya know, try and be right when he was wrong. All I remember JB screaming about is "Category 3" terribleness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Convection really fired up this afternoon with Debby. Defiantly looks like some equatorward jet strak enhancement per what Sam posted earlier. Radar continues to look very impressive along the Florida Panhandle. Major flooding is ongoing just south of Tallahassee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 I follow JB on Facebook and Twitter. The first forecast I saw him put out was when Debby was a wave in the NW Caribbean. He had Debby making landfall near Houston on Sunday (yesterday) if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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